Napolitano's powers may be waning in Arizona
by Matthew Benson - Sept. 1, 2008 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

Has Janet Napolitano lost her mojo?

Unthinkable even a year ago, the question is circulating among some of the governor's watchers at the Capitol. They're struck by an administration seemingly put on its heels by a stumbling state economy, rash of key staff departures and, most recently, the disqualification from the November ballot of her two most favored initiatives.

Failure of the proposals - one calling for a tax increase for transportation, and the other a reform of the state trust-land system - is particularly stunning given Team Napolitano's remarkable efficiency up to this point.
"Brutal," political consultant Doug Cole termed the recent turn of events. Cole was a top aide to Republican former Gov. Fife Symington.

"The glory days are over, I think," said David Berman, a senior research fellow with Arizona State University's Morrison Institute for Public Policy.

Napolitano's run of difficulties locally is especially ironic because it comes just as her political star is shining brightest nationally. The governor was among speakers featured at last week's Democratic National Convention and is widely considered a front-runner for a prime Cabinet post if Barack Obama is elected president.

True to form, Napolitano refuses to dwell on the negative.

"We're up and fighting," she vowed from Denver. "Nobody's depressed."


'Absolute dominance'

At this time two years ago, Napolitano was romping to re-election, heading toward an opportunity to put her mark on Arizona.

Campaign commercials touted a state that had seen an economic and fiscal revival under her leadership. What had been a stalled Arizona economy kicked into high gear with the beginning of her first term, turning - in a span of three years - a $1 billion state-budget shortfall into a $1 billion surplus.

The state hadn't seen a Democrat like this in years. She built a pro-business, centrist brand that proved popular among members of her own party, political moderates and the state's large number of independent voters.

And she routinely cowed a Republican-led Legislature, brokering deals such as one that landed her funding for all-day kindergarten in exchange for tax cuts and school vouchers sought by GOP lawmakers. Napolitano then touted those same tax cuts - cuts she initially resisted - in her 2006 re-election bid.

Her political timing was uncanny - and, for Republicans, maddening. The best example: Napolitano's January 2006 call for the federal government to pay for National Guard troops on the border. Four months later, President Bush unveiled a plan to do exactly that, taking much of the steam out of an issue - illegal immigration - that Republicans had planned to make the centerpiece of their efforts to reclaim the Governor's Office.

"Let's face it: This has been six years of absolute dominance," said Republican political consultant Kevin Demenna, a fixture at the Arizona Capitol.

But he, too, has noticed a change as Napolitano heads toward the final two years as governor. It's a time when elected officials, facing their term limit, often see their influence wane, even under the best of circumstances.


A downturn

The economy began to sour not long after Napolitano's re-election, dragged down in large measure by an Arizona housing market that's among the nation's hardest-hit. Red ink returned to state ledgers to the tune of a $2 billion shortfall this fiscal year.

Meanwhile, turnover among top Napolitano aides has spiked. Chief counsel Tim Nelson resigned in January to run for Maricopa County attorney. Chief of Staff Dennis Burke, top budget adviser George Cunningham and primary legislative lobbyist Mike Haener are leaving the Governor's Office or have recently departed (Cunningham will continue to advise on a contract basis).

Neither Burke nor Haener has said what he plans to do next.

None of the departures was a surprise, said Napolitano spokeswoman Jeanine L'Ecuyer.

Until now, she noted, the Governor's Office has been remarkably stable in terms of turnover among top advisers, and qualified replacements are at the ready.

Still, the loss of so many steady hands - Cunningham served under Gov. Rose Mofford; Burke and Haener have been with Napolitano since early in her political career - is bound to have an impact.

But the most startling political setback came this month with the dual failure of the transportation and trust-land ballot initiatives.

Napolitano bet heavily on both as legacy projects for a governor looking long term. For well over a year, she emphasized the need to develop a statewide plan and funding stream to deal with growing traffic congestion, and to make better use of trust land than the traditional exercise of auctioning it to the highest bidder, generally a developer.

Citizens groups rallied around both measures, spending nearly $2 million combined for petition signatures. But they fell short of the numbers they needed, and the campaigns were off before they had really even begun.

"It's a terrible disappointment," L'Ecuyer conceded. But she pushed back at any notion of Ninth Floor malaise.

The economic downturn is a national phenomenon, L'Ecuyer observed, and the staff departures are unrelated and commonplace.

Beyond that, the demise of the two ballot initiatives doesn't mean Napolitano will cease carrying the banner for trust land and transportation.

There may be a new push for the 2010 ballot, L'Ecuyer said, or possibly through the Legislature in the meantime.

She termed recent events part of the routine ebb-and-flow of a gubernatorial tenure.

"There's no gloom. There's no sadness. There's no wringing of hands," L'Ecuyer said. "We're just fine."

Through it all, Napolitano's public approval remains lofty.

"She's just always been off the charts in terms of job-performance rating," said ASU pollster Bruce Merrill. He has seen no evidence that Napolitano's 70-plus percent approval score is on the wane.

Cole said the economic problems Napolitano is grappling with are part of a national trend felt by governors across the country.

Just look at California, where the state budget is two months overdue as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislators face a $15 billion shortfall.

"These are tough times," Cole said. "We're in a down-cycle here, and it makes it very difficult to govern."

Still, he wondered whether Napolitano's rising national profile - traveling and campaigning for Obama, appearing on national news shows and the like - has pulled her attention from state business.

"I think there has to be some distraction," Cole said. "How could there not be?"


Rebound? Or resign?

Berman said it's only natural for an administration to lose some focus and momentum after six years. Top advisers begin to scout their next political move. So do governors.

"I wouldn't say she's burned-out," said Berman, a professor emeritus of polit- ical science. "But I think she's probably ready to move on."

The next 90 days loom large in how the end of Napolitano's governorship will be written. Will Obama win the presidency? Will he ask Napolitano to join his administration and, if so, will she accept?

If Washington, D.C., isn't in the cards for now, political watchers say the question is when, not if, Napolitano and the Governor's Office will bounce back.

"Now she's going to get tested," said Ron Ober, chief of staff to Democratic former Sen. Dennis DeConcini, and a Valley political consultant. "My money's on her."
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