Thread: Andy Lees On China Coup Rumors

Andy Lees On China Coup Rumors



Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/20/2012 08:37 -0400

Earlier this morning, there have been some completely unfounded speculation of a Chinese coup. And this is all. To get some additional color, we go to Chinese macro expert Andy Lees, who incidentally has have left the churn factory known as UBS, and is now at AML Macro Ideas. Here is his take.

I am an hour and a half behind the market, but there has been some chatter of a coup in China. An article on the web says "Over the night of March 19th and early morning of March 20th, Beijing local time, a message about a large number of military police showing up in Beijing spread widely across microblogs in mainland China. The key figures in the action are said to be Hu Jianto, the head of the CCP, Wen Jiabao, the premier; Zhou Yongkjang who has control of the People's Republic of China's police forces; and Bo Xilai who was dismissed from his post as the head of Chongqing City Communist Party on March 15th by Wen Jiabao after a scandal involving Bo's former police chief".

The article does not really say anything beyond that. Some people have dismissed the troops as security for a North Korean delegation. It could also be to head off any demonstrations against the fuel price hikes.

A second article says that around New Year's day 2 airforce officers were arrested on suspicion of plotting a coup, and a nuclear submarine on potrol was ordered back to port because they were thought to have links with the plotters.

There may be absolutely no truth in any of this, but if there is the possible consequences could be enormous for the global economy, for Chinese economic policy response - (remember the cheques that Saudi Arabia wrote to buy calm in the Arab Spring) - and for market volatility generally.

So there you have it: in short - it may be too early to discount anything, especially in the aftermath of the Bo Xilai party coup. One thing is certain, do not expect to find any media confirmation or validation of these rumors.

Andy Lees On China Coup Rumors | ZeroHedge

Coup in Beijing, Says Chinese Internet Rumor Mill

Mar 20th, 2012 @ 12:02 am › Epoch Times Staff


Screen shot of a photo posted on Weibo by Li Delin, who is on the editorial board of Securities Market Weekly. Li reported army vehicles on Changan Street in Beijing.


Over the night of March 19 and early morning of March 20, Bejing local time, a message about a large number of military police showing up in Beijing spread widely across microblogs in mainland China.
The key figures in the action are said to be: Hu Jintao, the head of the CCP; Wen Jiabao, the premier; Zhou Yongkang, who has control of the People’s Republic of China’s police forces; and Bo Xilai, who was dismissed from his post as head of the Chongqing City Communist Party on March 15 by Wen Jiabao, after a scandal involving Bo’s former police chief.
Li Delin, who is on the editorial board of Securities Market Weekly and lives in Dongcheng District of Beijing, wrote on his microblog a report that confirmed unusual troop movements: “There are numerous army vehicles, Changan Street is continuously being controlled. There are many plainclothes police in every intersection, and some intersections even had iron fences set up.”

http://m.theepochtimes.com/n2/t/chin...gime-in-crisis

Click this tag to read The Epoch Times’ collection of articles on the Chinese Regime in Crisis. Intra-CCP politics are a challenge to make sense of, even for veteran China watchers. Here we attempt to provide readers with the necessary context to understand the situation.

According to the message that went viral on China’s Internet, a military force with unknown designation quickly occupied many important places in Zhongnanhai, the Chinese leadership compound in Beijing, and Beijing in the early morning of March 20, with the cooperation of Beijing armed police.
The troops entered Beijing to “get and protect Bo Xilai,” according to the message.
A mainland Chinese reader has told The Epoch Times that a military coup has taken place in Beijing.
It is still unknown who, if anyone, has been arrested.
The message claims Zhou Yongkang first used armed police force in an attempt to arrest Hu and Wen. However, Hu and Wen had been prepared and Zhou’s coup was subdued, though rumors of Hu and Wen being arrested had been spread earlier.
The message says that now both sides, Hu and Wen on one side, and Jiang Zemin and Zhou Yongkang on the other, are mobilizing armed forces. However, only Hu Jintao can mobilize the regular army, which he still controls, according to the message.
The message also claims that forces directed by Zhou Yongkang had taken control over CCTV and the Xinhua News Agency, but that the regular army under the command of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao had since taken back control of the news outlets.
The news column on Xinhua’s website was all foreign news from 11 p.m. on March 19 to at least 8 a.m. on March 20, with not a single piece of domestic news—which is quite unusual.
One netizen posted on microblog: “Strange! Except Beijing Television, no other television in Beijing is broadcasting. This is very strange!!! It had never happened before.”
However, Beijing state-controlled media have observed that imposing a curfew on Changan Street is quite normal, as the North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho is seeing Wu Dawei, the People’s Republic of China’s special representative for Korean affairs, and had made a rare advance appointment with media to give a speech outside the east entrance of Diaoyutai State Guesthouse.

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Beijing media has also noted that the China Development Forum is closing, with guests from across the country leaving after the forum. For these reasons, Beijing media said there are many police on Changan Street, and taxis are not allowed to stop next to the airport terminal building.
The Epoch Times is at present trying to verify the messages.
You can read Weibo messages on the subject in English via Google Translate and in the original Chinese.
Weibo appeared down briefly between approximately 12:00 and 12:20 p.m. Beijing local time. Check to see if Weibo is up now.

Coup in Beijing, Says Chinese Internet Rumor Mill | Epoch Times

Report From China: A Military Coup Has Taken Place in Beijing

Epoch Times Staff Report
Epoch Times
March 20th, 2012

Over the night of March 19 and early morning of March 20, Bejing local time, a message about a large number of military police showing up in Beijing spread widely across microblogs in mainland China.

The key figures in the action are said to be: Hu Jintao, the head of the CCP; Wen Jiabao, the premier; Zhou Yongkang, who has control of the People’s Republic of China’s police forces; and Bo Xilai, who was dismissed from his post as head of the Chongqing City Communist Party on March 15 by Wen Jiabao, after a scandal involving Bo’s former police chief.

Li Delin, who is on the editorial board of Securities Market Weekly and lives in Dongcheng District of Beijing, wrote on his microblog a report that confirmed unusual troop movements: “There are numerous army vehicles, Changan Street is continuously being controlled. There are many plainclothes police in every intersection, and some intersections even had iron fences set up.”

According to the message that went viral on China’s Internet, a military force with unknown designation quickly occupied many important places in Zhongnanhai, the Chinese leadership compound in Beijing, and Beijing in the early morning of March 20, with the cooperation of Beijing armed police.

The troops entered Beijing to “get and protect Bo Xilai,” according to the message.

A mainland Chinese reader has told The Epoch Times that a military coup has taken place in Beijing.

It is still unknown who, if anyone, has been arrested.

Continue reading

Report From China: A Military Coup Has Taken Place in Beijing