Thread: Farewell Eng£AAAnd: Moody's Downgrades The UK From AAA To Aa1

Farewell Eng£AAAnd: Moody's Downgrades The UK From AAA To Aa1

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/22/2013 16:36 -0500


And another AAA-club member quietly exits not with a bang but a whimper:

• MOODY’S DOWNGRADES UK’S GOVERNMENT BOND RATING TO Aa1 FROM AAA

Someone must have clued Moody's on the fact that the UK is about to have its very own Goldman banker, which means consolidated debt/GDP will soon need four digits. In other news, every lawyer in the UK is now celebrating because come Monday Moody's will be sued to smithereens.

Cable not happy as it tests 31 month lows, which however also explains why the Moody's action has another name: accelerated cable devaluation. Those who heeded our call to short Cable when Goldman's Mark Carney was appointed are now 1000 pips richer. Also, please sacrifice a lamb at the altar of Goldman: It's the polite thing to do.





Full report below:

Moody's downgrades UK's government bond rating to Aa1 from Aaa; outlook is now stable

London, 22 February 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the domestic- and foreign-currency government bond ratings of the United Kingdom by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa. The outlook on the ratings is now stable.

The key interrelated drivers of today's action are:

1. The continuing weakness in the UK's medium-term growth outlook, with a period of sluggish growth which Moody's now expects will extend into the second half of the decade;

2. The challenges that subdued medium-term growth prospects pose to the government's fiscal consolidation programme, which will now extend well into the next parliament;

3. And, as a consequence of the UK's high and rising debt burden, a deterioration in the shock-absorption capacity of the government's balance sheet, which is unlikely to reverse before 2016.

At the same time, Moody's explains that the UK's creditworthiness remains extremely high, rated at Aa1, because of the country's significant credit strengths. These include (i) a highly competitive, well-diversified economy; (ii) a strong track record of fiscal consolidation and a robust institutional structure; and (iii) a favourable debt structure, with supportive domestic demand for government debt, the longest average maturity structure (15 years) among all highly rated sovereigns globally and the resulting reduced interest rate risk on UK debt.

The stable outlook on the UK's Aa1 sovereign rating reflects Moody's expectation that a combination of political will and medium-term fundamental underlying economic strengths will, in time, allow the government to implement its fiscal consolidation plan and reverse the UK's debt trajectory. Moreover, although the UK's economy has considerable risk exposure through trade and financial linkages to a potential escalation in the euro area sovereign debt crisis, its contagion risk is mitigated by the flexibility afforded by the UK's independent monetary policy framework and sterling's global reserve currency status.

In a related rating action, Moody's has today also downgraded the ratings of the Bank of England to Aa1 from Aaa. The issuer's P-1 rating is unaffected by this rating action. The rating outlook for this entity is now also stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The main driver underpinning Moody's decision to downgrade the UK's government bond rating to Aa1 is the increasing clarity that, despite considerable structural economic strengths, the UK's economic growth will remain sluggish over the next few years due to the anticipated slow growth of the global economy and the drag on the UK economy from the ongoing domestic public- and private-sector deleveraging process. Moody's says that the country's current economic recovery has already proven to be significantly slower -- and believes that it will likely remain so -- compared with the recovery observed after previous recessions, such as those of the 1970s, early 1980s and early 1990s. Moreover, while the government's recent Funding for Lending Scheme has the potential to support a surge in growth, Moody's believes the risks to the growth outlook remain skewed to the downside.

The sluggish growth environment in turn poses an increasing challenge to the government's fiscal consolidation efforts, which represents the second driver informing Moody's one-notch downgrade of the UK's sovereign rating. When Moody's changed the outlook on the UK's rating to negative in February 2012, the rating agency cited concerns over the increased uncertainty regarding the pace of fiscal consolidation due to materially weaker growth prospects, which contributed to higher than previously expected projections for the deficit, and consequently also an expected ise in the debt burden. Moody's now expects that the UK's gross general government debt level will peak at just over 96% of GDP in 2016. The rating agency says that it would have expected it to peak at a higher level if the government had not reduced its debt stock by transferring funds from the Asset Purchase Facility -- which will equal to roughly 3.7% of GDP in total -- as announced in November 2012.

More specifically, projected tax revenue increases have been difficult to achieve in the UK due to the challenging economic environment. As a result, the weaker economic outturn has substantially slowed the anticipated pace of deficit and debt-to-GDP reduction, and is likely to continue to do so over the medium term. After it was elected in 2010, the government outlined a fiscal consolidation programme that would run through this parliament's five-year term and place the net public-sector debt-to-GDP ratio on a declining trajectory by the 2015-16 financial year. (Although it was not one of the government's targets, Moody's had expected the UK's gross general government debt -- a key debt metric in the rating agency's analysis -- to start declining in the 2014-15 financial year.) Now, however, the government has announced that fiscal consolidation will extend into the next parliament, which necessarily makes their implementation less certain.

Taken together, the slower-than-expected recovery, the higher debt load and the policy uncertainties combine to form the third driver of today's rating action -- namely, the erosion of the shock-absorption capacity of the UK's balance sheet. Moody's believes that the mounting debt levels in a low-growth environment have impaired the sovereign's ability to contain and quickly reverse the impact of adverse economic or financial shocks. For example, given the pace of deficit and debt reduction that Moody's has observed since 2010, there is a risk that the UK government may not be able to reverse the debt trajectory before the next economic shock or cyclical downturn in the economy.

In summary, although the UK's debt-servicing capacity remains very strong and very capable of withstanding further adverse economic and financial shocks, it does not at present possess the extraordinary resilience common to other Aaa-rated issuers.

RATIONALE FOR STABLE OUTLOOK

The stable outlook on the UK's Aa1 sovereign rating partly reflects the strengths that underpin the Aa1 rating itself -- the underlying economic strength and fiscal policy commitment which Moody's expects will ultimately allow the UK government to reverse the debt trajectory. The stable outlook is also an indication of the fact that Moody's does not expect further additional material deterioration in the UK's economic prospects or additional material difficulties in implementing fiscal consolidation. It also reflects the greater capacity of the UK government compared with its euro area peers to absorb shocks resulting from any further escalation in the euro area sovereign debt crisis, given (1) the absence of the contingent liabilities from mutual support mechanisms that euro area members face; (2) the UK's more limited trade dependence on the euro area; and (3) the policy flexibility that the UK derives from having its own national currency, which is a global reserve currency. Lastly, the UK also benefits from a considerably longer-than-average debt-maturity schedule, making the country's debt-servicing costs less vulnerable to swings in interest rates.

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATING UP/DOWN

As reflected by the stable rating outlook, Moody's does not anticipate any movement in the rating over the next 12-18 months. However, downward pressure on the rating could arise if government policies were unable to stabilise and begin to ease the UK's debt burden during the multi-year fiscal consolidation programme. Moody's could also downgrade the UK's government debt rating further in the event of an additional material deterioration in the country's economic prospects or reduced political commitment to fiscal consolidation.

Conversely, Moody's would consider changing the outlook on the UK's rating to positive, and ultimately upgrading the rating back to Aaa, in the event of much more rapid economic growth and debt-to-GDP reduction than Moody's is currently anticipating.

COUNTRY CEILINGS

The UK's foreign- and local-currency bond and deposit ceilings remain unchanged at Aaa. The short-term foreign-currency bond and deposit ceilings remain Prime-1.

IMPACT ON OTHER RATINGS

Moody's will assess the implications of this action for the debt obligations of other issuers which benefit from a guarantee from the UK sovereign, and will announce its conclusions shortly in accordance with EU regulatory requirements. Moody's does not consider that the one-notch downgrade of the UK sovereign has any implications for the standalone strength of UK financial institutions, or for the systemic support uplift factored into certain UK financial institutions' unguaranteed debt ratings.

PREVIOUS RATING ACTION

Moody's previous action on the UK's sovereign rating and the Bank of England was implemented on 13 February 2012, when the rating agency changed the outlook on both Aaa ratings to negative from stable. For the UK sovereign, the actions prior to that were Moody's assignment of a Aaa rating to the UK's government bonds in March 1978 and the assignment of a stable outlook in March 1997. For the Bank of England, the action prior to the one from February 2012 was the assignment of a Aaa rating and stable outlook in March 2010.

Farewell Eng£AAAnd: Moody's Downgrades The UK From AAA To Aa1 | Zero Hedge

Eng£Aa1nd Downgrade: Citi's Take | Zero Hedge

UK's George Osborne Responds To Moody's Downgrade | Zero Hedge

Guest Post: How The End Of Empire Comes, Not With A Bang, But With A Whimper


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/25/2013 12:51 -0500


Submitted by Tim Price

When Moody's downgraded the UK's sovereign credit rating last week it was something of an anti-climax.

The ratings agencies long ago lost what little credibility they ever had. Being downgraded by Moody's is like being called a moron by a moron; ask anyone who has ever set foot in a bond dealing room - the ratings agencies are always behind the curve.

The UK has been on the skids, credit-wise, for years. Britain's debt to GDP has gone through the roof. We, and generations to come, will be left with the reckoning.

We've seen this before in history. British debt to GDP peaked in the immediate aftermath of the Napoleonic Wars, the cost of which also brought in the 'temporary' measure known as the income tax. It wasn't so temporary.

But as the peace dividend and Britain's sole status as superpower flourished, debt/GDP ratio fell. With the outbreak of World War I, it began to rise again, peaking unsustainably as the Second World War ended.

By July 1956, British sovereign finances were in a dismal state. At the time, Egypt's President nationalized the Suez Canal, putting British oil supplies at risk. Joining the fray, Saudi Arabia began an oil embargo against Britain and France.

Britain wanted to take action and went to the IMF for support. But sensing an opportunity to increase its influence in the Middle East at the expense of its faltering old ally, the US said NO and threatened to dump some of its massive holdings of UK government debt.

Britain's foreign exchange reserves were running out, and the country would soon be unable to supply itself. Britain blinked first and bowed out. Our days of Empire were over. It came not with a bang, but with a whimper.

It is not unreasonable to believe that the exact same life cycle relates to the United States. Further, it is not unreasonable to think that the US' day in the sun has already been and gone.

If its own high water mark was the fall of the Berlin Wall, at which point the world recognized the primacy of the free market model versus the failure of Communism, America's 'end of Empire' moment has already passed.

Of course, like the UK, the US has already been downgraded (by Standard & Poor's in 2011). This only confirmed what we already knew: given the absolute level of its indebtedness, the off balance sheet debts, and its broken political system, the US hasn't been a genuine AAA credit for quite some time.

Yet even though its risk is obviously more than zero, US Treasuries remain the credit market's 'risk free rate'. This is because bond fund managers operate dysfunctionally, favoring the debts of the world's most heavily indebted countries.

Consequently, EVERYTHING is benchmarked to US Treasuries simply because the US is the world's largest debtor.

In this context, the US downgrade was an act of spectacular significance. It punctured (or should have punctured) a bubble of suspended disbelief that just about every investor on the planet had been inflating for years: that the US was a riskless credit.

Or, even more ludicrously, that there was such a thing as a riskless investment in the first case.

And yet, government bonds become even MORE attractive after the downgrade. We may see the same in the UK.

Nobody believes that bonds are an objective reflection of economic reality. The game is rigged, and everybody knows it. But the Moody's downgrade should serve as a piercing smoke alarm to anybody still naive enough to be holding these instruments of value destruction.

Get out now while the going is good.

Guest Post: How The End Of Empire Comes, Not With A Bang, But With A Whimper | Zero Hedge