NRA holds its fire on Sonia Sotomayor nomination

POLITICO.com
July 9, 2009
By MANU RAJU

A red-state Democratic rebellion based on gun rights may be the Republicans’ best shot if they want to derail Sonia Sotomayor’s nomination to the Supreme Court.

But so far, even the National Rifle Association has yet to engage in a serious lobbying effort to pressure centrist Democrats to oppose Sotomayor.

Several Democrats from conservative states told POLITICO that they are not ruling out opposing Sotomayor if she stumbles on the gun issue during her confirmation hearings, which begin July 13. But for now, red-state Democrats say they are comfortable with her position on the issue and are very unlikely to oppose her nomination — even if it elicits strong NRA opposition.

And to a larger extent, gun rights have not been a high profile for Sotomayor, who has assured many senators in private meetings that a 2008 Supreme Court ruling striking down the District of Columbia’s strict gun-control laws is the precedent that she would follow.

The NRA’s decision to wait until this week to wade into the debate has led many Democrats to believe that the group won’t mount a forceful opposition to Sotomayor — and the NRA’s official position this week was much milder than one issued by members of the group’s board of directors, who called on the Senate to reject Sotomayor altogether.

Also helping conservative DemoÂ*crats make up their mind: Another gun-rights group, the American Hunters and Shooters Association, has come out in support of Sotomayor. The group’s endorsement — which the NRA has criticized — will be highlighted as part of a rapid-fire response strategy Democrats plan to launch to respond to GOP attacks at the confirmation hearings, according to people familiar with the process.

Sotomayor is studying and preparing for the hearings — but the White House has been private about its war-gaming for the hearings and has not provided details to Senate Democrats. But what Sotomayor has done is visit with nearly every senator, and, in the process, win over key Democratic moderates whose support will be critical if the GOP chooses to filibuster.

Sen. Jon Tester, a moderate Montana Democrat and a proponent of broader gun rights, said Sotomayor’s views on the Second Amendment are “very much a factorâ€