Thread: Obama's Arrival Sets North American Integration Adrift

Obama's Arrival Sets North American Integration Adrift


August 5, 2009
Jeff Davis, Embassy
Portal for North America


U.S. President Barack Obama officially takes his place as one of the so-called Three Amigos during the North American leaders' summit in Mexico this weekend. Yet he will be joining a trilateral alliance that has been in a state of virtual hibernation since his predecessor, George W. Bush, left the scene.

Instead, he and counterparts Stephen Harper and Felipe Calderon will be confronting the reality of a continental alliance adrift and in sore need of political direction and leadership.

With the Bush-era Security and Prosperity Partnership having largely petered out from a lack of direction and a toxic public image, the leaders have a chance to reinvigorate or reinvent the trilateral alliance.

But with three distracted leaders of questionable compatibility, and an apparent lack of a grand vision for the way forward, the future of this forum—and North American integration in general—remains far from certain.

North America's founding trilateral summit took place in Waco, Texas, in 2005 and was attended by former leaders Paul Martin of Canada, Vicente Fox of Mexico, and George W. Bush of the United States. Named the Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America, the forum aimed to increase trilateral co-operation on issues ranging from trade and the environment to pandemics and food security.

The summits were dubbed the "Three Amigos" during the following year's meeting in Mexico when Mr. Harper joined and the group was comprised of three conservative leaders with warm relations. The trifecta of conservative leaders continued when Mr. Calderon became president and began attending in 2007.

All three governments insisted the forum was designed to working on such boring issues as regulation harmonization and ways of ensuring U.S. security concerns did not get in the way of trade. But the meetings were closed to public scrutiny, while business leaders had an unprecedented level of input. As a result, the SPP became a rallying point for citizens in all three countries who feared a loss of national sovereignty. It also became the subject of many conspiracy theories.

This week's meeting will be the forum's fifth annual summit, and the first one not to include Mr. Bush. As a result, there is general consensus that the term SPP—which became extremely controversial over the years—will no longer be used to describe the forum.

In addition, since the change in administration in the United States, the SPP's 20 trilateral working groups have been moribund, lacking direction from the top.

Chris Sands, an expert on Canada-U.S. relations at the Hudson Institute, says the SPP has been in a state of virtual "hibernation" since Obama arrived on the scene.

"Since the administration came in...there's been no mandate for the working group to sort of achieve a goal," he said. "The groups have talked to each other on issues as they arise, but they haven't been working towards anything that would be a deliverable at this summit."

Others say the project of trilateral co-operation and integration has been on the decline for years now.

Robert Pastor, co-director of American University's Center for North American Studies and an ardent proponent of greater North American integration, says the golden era of NAFTA integration ended around the time the Twin Towers fell on Sept. 11, 2001.

"If you look at the economies, integration accelerated from the onset of NAFTA to about 2001," he said. "Since then it has declined."

Mr. Pastor pointed to more border delays due to increased security as a major factor. But more important, he said, is that the three leaders have not provided a new forward-looking vision for trilateral relations in the post-9/11 world.

"The three leaders of the countries needed to take additional steps after 2001 to advance a North American agenda, and none of them did it," he said. "Instead of serious initiatives they kept generating new acronyms; alphabet soup in lieu of serious decisions."

While all experts consulted by Embassy agreed the SPP has seen better days, most said the fundamental case for North American co-operation remains solid. Most said the goal of reducing and harmonizing regulatory and inspection issues is laudable, and one that helps combat the "tyranny of small differences" that hinders trade and travel.

Dwight Mason, a former U.S. deputy ambassador to Canada turned Canadian studies academic at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, says the basic rationale for trilateral co-operation and integration remains as convincing as ever, especially in troubled economic times.

"The overall trend to integration in North America is very, very strong as it leads to stronger economies," he said. "It seems to me that anything that gets in the way of this integration probably diminishes our economic capacity and prosperity—and we need a lot of both right now."

Mr. Mason said trilateral co-operation has consistently been supported by administrations in all three countries, "because this is really a fundamentally good idea."

Execution, however, has been another matter. While the SPP delivered on increased security, the same cannot be said for prosperity. And it's unclear what will happen going forward.

With a new president in the United States, NAFTA watchers across the continent are waiting to see what course Barack Obama will chart for the SPP, if he charts one at all.

On both sides of the border, experts are concerned that North American issues will not get sufficient attention from Mr. Obama. After all, Mr. Obama is wrestling with major issues like Afghanistan, Iraq, the global recession and his health care plan.

"And that's the problem: [Obama's] leadership is really being used right now on a lot of other things," said Mr. Mason. "But we need it for this too."

Such leadership, or lack thereof, will be what makes or breaks this summit.

"Is this going to be simply a photo opportunity?" said Mr. Pastor. "Or are the three leaders serious about constructing a North American framework for addressing shared challenges?

"I do not see evidence yet that these three leaders are serious," he continued. "I think to be serious, all three need to be talking about North America, with a shared vision of what we want to see happen...I don't see that."

Others are more optimistic about prospects for American leadership at the summit, noting Mr. Obama's recent overtures to both Canada and Mexico.

"The president does spend a lot of time on Canada and Mexico, having travelled to both countries already for state visits," said Mr. Sands. "So he's pretty keyed in on this."

In terms of what will be discussed at this weekend's leaders' summit, little is known for certain. However, border and immigration issues are expected to take a prominent position, as well as the continental economy and specific sectors like the auto industry.

Drug trafficking and Mexico's drug war will also certainly be discussed, and Canada will likely raise concerns over "Buy American" and other trade concerns. Experts also expect Mr. Obama to bring up climate change, energy and carbon emissions targets, with an eye toward the Copenhagen meetings in December.

Liberal Foreign Affairs critic Bob Rae cautioned against aggressively pursuing continental integration at a time when the "American Congress is in a deeply protectionist mood."

Pointing to Canada-U.S. trade disputes such as softwood lumber, black liquor and COOL, as well as immigration concerns related to Mexico, he said: "It's pretty hard to talk about integration when there are such significant barriers to flow of people and of goods and services among the countries."

Mr. Rae said he doubts much progress will be made at the summit. "I would say right now the relationship is kind of stuck," he said. "And I think it's going to take a lot of creativity and imagination to think how we're going to break out of the current situation."

Tags: Canada, Economics, Integration, Leaders' Summits, Mexico, NAFTA, Security and Prosperity Partnership, United States

http://www.portalfornorthamerica.org/pn ... ion-adrift

Robert Pastor can be considered the father of the EU. What started out as a trade agreement turned into this mess.
Jerome Corsi, in his book, the Late, Great USA, really told the story. Get a copy and you can really be scared.