Thread: The Other Big One - CA. - UPDATED

The Other Big One: Storm Study

Scientists Research Probability of Devastating Storm

Elaina Rusk - 23ABC Reporter, Anchor
POSTED: 5:58 pm PST January 14, 2011
UPDATED: 10:13 pm PST January 14, 2011

BAKERSFIELD, Calif. -- Scientists are calling it "the other big one," a series of storms capable of causing three times as much damage as a major Southern California earthquake.

Researchers with the United States Geological Survey just released a two-year-long study that reports if apocalyptic storms hit the state, the damage could cost $725 billion, nearly three times the cost of a 7.8 magnitude quake in Southern California.

On the heels of our own Kern County flooding in December, residents are weary and scientists are worried. This after the new study said a series of devastating storms like that could leave the entire central valley underwater.

A team of 117 scientists and engineers created the hypothetical scenario, called ARkStorm, a series of very wet storms, one right after the other.

"What we're talking about is similar to what we just had in December, a Pineapple Express," said 23ABC's Chief Meteorologist Jack Church. "Moisture coming out of the Hawaiian islands, streaming into California. But in this doomsday scenario, it doesn't stop for 30, 40, 45 days. So yeah, it could (happen), but probably not."

In the winter of 1861-62, devastating storms lasted 45 days and left nearly a third of taxable land underwater, causing the state to go bankrupt.

The study says geologic evidence of past floods shows even bigger storms struck the state before the European settlers arrived.

Scientists say if a similar scenario played out today, flooding in the central valley could stretch 20 miles wide and 300 miles long, an expanse reaching from Bakersfield to Sacramento.

"The advantage we have now, as opposed to what they had in 1861-62," Church said, "was we would have time to prepare, because we could see this evolving with our satellite imagry, our forecasting models, things like that. And hopefully be better prepared to somewhat harness some of the effects of the flooding."

Those effects include hundreds of landslides and debris flows, major flooding in the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta that could cause 50 levees to be breached, and 1.5 million inland residents would be forced to evacuate.

While it's only hypothetical, researchers say being prepared for this scenario will save lives.

"It's not something I would lose sleep over every night," Church said, "because this is one of those one in 500 year events that could take place. You've heard us talk about one in a hundred year event, which this past December, that was a one in a hundred year event. But this is probably a 500 to a thousand year event."

The study also measured the risk to infrastructure and roads, livestock and farmlands, high surf damage and erosion to the already sensitive coastline; not to mention the risk to lives and property.

http://www.turnto23.com/news/26501008/detail.html

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