Sherline: Out on a Limb

By Harris R. Sherline June 12, 2010 4:40 AM
12 Comments

I've decided to put myself out on a limb and make some predictions about what's likely to happen after President Obama leaves office. First, I think he will be a one-term president. Second, after he leaves office he will not be able to keep his mouth shut about the policies and actions of his successor, whoever it is, Democrat or Republican. He does not have the class to leave the stage to the next man (or woman). And if the next president is a Republican, Obama will simply not be able to contain himself.

Obama is the only president I can recall who directly attacked specific media outlets, such as Fox News, and there is little doubt that he will continue to do so from the seemingly unassailable perch of a "former president."

Based on Obama's performance to date, it appears that a great many fixes will be necessary to right America's ship of state after he leaves office. The obvious premise of this commentary is that many of the actions taken by his administration are bad for America and the next president will see the need to change, correct or just plain reverse them when Obama is no longer in charge. Consider the following, among many others (in no particular order):

Foreign Policy: Israel, Iran, China and Russia. The United States will have been put into a position of strategic weakness by Obama's policies that will probably linger for some time to come. We are already seeing adverse consequences in the conduct of North Korea, Palestine, Iran, Syria, Turkey and Russia, among others. The recent incident in Israel of Palestine attempting to break the blockade of arms intended for Hamas in Gaza is a glaring example. The underlying reason for the increased strength of our enemies has been the weakness demonstrated by Obama and his administration. Without him in control, that will probably be changed. Unfortunately, Iran will have "the bomb" by then and it will be increasingly difficult to counter their aggressive meddling in the Middle East. And, if they attack Israel, all bets will be off.

Health Care: Recent polls indicate that over 60% of the public now favor repealing Obamacare. That can't happen while he is still in office, even if the Republicans regain control of Congress in November, unless they win a veto proof majority. Unfortunately, however, chances are it won't happen after he is out of office either, because the new bureaucratic health care structure will have been put in place and will probably be too difficult to completely eliminate.

The Courts: Obama has consistently appointed liberal judges to the judiciary, including the Supreme Court. Given the young ages of his appointees, we will probably be forced to live with his choices of liberals for an entire generation. But, perhaps of greater importance are his appointments to the federal judiciary in general, where dozens of lifetime appointments of liberal judges have also been made to lower courts.

The War on Terror: Whether Obama's successor is a Republican or a conservative, America's response to terrorists will likely be more aggressive and the term "terrorist" will be probably be restored to common parlance to describe the nature of the struggle.

Homeland Security: After Obama and Janet Napolitano depart the scene, if the next president is a Republican, we are likely to see a stronger policy against illegal immigration, as well as protecting our borders. 60% of Americans in general and over 70% of Arizona residents support the state's recent bill regarding illegal immigrants. However, passing comprehensive immigration reform is likely to continue to elude Congress and the next administration for some time to come.

Guantanamo Bay and Enemy Combatants: If Obama has not closed Guantanamo by the time he leaves office, it may not be closed at all. He has been unable to implement his decision to close the facility and, at this point, many if not all the remaining prisoners will be hard core terrorists that other countries will probably not be willing to accept. The new administration will likely proceed to try them in military tribunals, and those who are not acquitted or executed will be imprisoned for life in federal facilities.

Expansion of Government: Obama's intrusion into the free market has been unprecedented. In spite of having taken control of the banking industry, General Motors, Chrysler, and AIG, along with much of the health care industry (by virtue of Obamacare), I believe much of the president's quasi-nationalization of industry will be reversed.

Energy (coal, oil, gas, nuclear): If the next administration is Republican, look for some loosening of restrictions on the development of all sources of energy, including oil, in spite of the recent disaster in the Gulf of Mexico.

Politically Correct Policies: Political correctness will continue to hamstring our society for many years to come and will probably not be changed to any great degree by a new administration, Republican or Democrat.

Taxes: A Republican administration will cut taxes, although not as much as many people would like, and the tax cuts are likely to be targeted to stimulate economic growth, rather than straight across-the-board reductions in rates. If a Democrat succeeds Obama in office, a VAT tax will probably be adopted.

Deficit Spending: A Republican administration will not necessarily curtail the out-of-control spending that has been the hallmark of Obama's program, but the chances for some reductions in spending will be better.

Inflation: Due to the excessive spending of the current administration, there will be a continued risk of high rates of inflation for a number of years, regardless of which party gains control of Congress and the White House.

Just for fun, you might try making some of your own predictions.

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