The Prospects of a New Cold War? Towards the Consolidation of the Russian-led CSTO Military Alliance


by José Miguel Alonso Trabanco
Global Research, May 8, 2009


"We are not afraid of anything, including the prospect of a new Cold War, but we don’t want one" -Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev

In his 1997 book entitled The Grand Chessboard American geostrategist Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote that if Russia ever attempted to launch its own defense pact, it would include, "at most", Belarus and Tajikistan[1]. Twelve years later, his list turned out to be incomplete. Moreover, the attempts being made in order to enhance the Russian-led CSTO's actual power projection capabilities and the efforts undertaken to bring the organization's members closer together is something Brzezinski failed to anticipate and it seems that the latest developments concerning CSTO demonstrate that his triumphalism was premature.

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a.k.a. The Tashkent Pact, is an institutional framework created by countries from the post-Soviet space. Its charter was signed in 2002 by the Russian Federation, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia. CSTO, along with the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) and the Russia-Belarus Union State, is one of the organizations which sponsor integration efforts in the former Soviet Union. Its creation was clearly a response to NATO's uninterrupted expansion eastward. CSTO articles include a mutual defense clause. Nevertheless, at the time, CSTO's goal was more political than military because the organization was basically meant to prevent its members from being incorporated into NATO provided that this security pact stipulates that no member can join any other military alliance. For years, CSTO accomplished little more than conducting military exercises. This limited role was due to the fact that, back in 2002, the Russian Federation was still trying to recover from the chaos it had to deal with during the 90's.

From Russia's perspective, the Baltic Republics' (Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia) entry into NATO was a major cause for concern. NATO's Drang nach Osten became outright frightening when the Atlantic alliance began considering NATO membership for both Georgia and Ukraine following the Rose and the Orange Revolutions, a move that was perceived as a threatening step meant to complete a military encirclement of Russia's European and Caucasian borders. It seems that Washington has been continuously attempting to contain the emergence of Russia and China due to the fact that both could eventually challenge Western interests in the Eurasian landmass. Moscow's fears were further heightened when the United States announced its plans to establish Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) facilities in Eastern Europe. Last but not least, Western-backed Color Revolutions broke out in Belarus, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan even though the latter was the only one that turned out to be successful, albeit temporarily.

In the post Soviet space the late 2000s' geopolitical reality is different from that of the 90s because Russia is vigorously attempting to reassert its power and to reinforce its own national security. Moscow is strongly defending its interests in the so called Near Abroad, (i. e. the former Soviet Union, which is the core of Russia's long-term geostrategic plans) even if that means having to challenge Western plans if necessary. Thus, the Kremlin thinks it is vital to stop NATO expansion in order to ensure Russia's survival in the long run.

So far, Moscow has resorted to its political, diplomatic and economic power in order to prevent the Western alliance from reaching deeper into the Near Abroad. Likewise, Presidents Putin and Medvedev have also applied a great deal of pressure through Russia's vast energy leverage. Moreover, it is also possible to assert that the intelligence apparatus the Russian government operates overseas has been contributing to these plans as well. Therefore, it is logical that the Kremlin wishes to foster a higher degree of defense and military cooperation (and, ultimately, to keep NATO forces at bay) through an upgrade of CSTO now that Russian power is reemerging. It is important to highlight that, in 2007, Tashkent Pact members reached an agreement which would allow the organization's forces to be deployed on peacekeeping missions under a U.N. mandate. In fact, it managed to obtain an observer-status seat in the U.N. General Assembly.

This development is remarkable because, during its early years, CSTO was labeled by Russian officials as "loose", "fragmentary", "diffuse" and/or even as "amorphous"[2]. Taking into consideration all of the above, Moscow's need to upgrade the CSTO to forge a single defense space for much of the former Soviet Union is hardly surprising.

The aforementioned does not necessarily means that the Kremlin is about to erect an Eurasian equivalent of NATO. The idea of CSTO tanks invading Europe is simply out of touch with reality. What is perfectly clear, however, is that the Moscow does not want to see a strong NATO military presence or geopolitical influence in the post-Soviet space, much less to be attacked by the American-led alliance. Russian General Leonid Ivashov, vice-president of the Academy of Geopolitical Science, explains that there is a need "to neutralize the spread of NATO's influence not only to Central Asia but also to East and Southeast Asia... [and an institutional entity created for that purpose] won't be of an aggressive or offensive nature; it will be a deterrent."[3] He added that "...one can negotiate on equal terms only when one has at least a potential possibility of opposing one's partner or causing them unacceptable damage. Only then one can negotiate"[4], which implies that at least some Russian political heavyweights want to forge a systemic balance in which power is not exclusively monopolized (unipolarity) but one in which there are more than one center of geopolitical gravity.

Quoted by Interfax News Agency, CSTO Secretary General Nikolai Bordyuzha was equally outspoken when he claimed that "It is regrettable that these processes [Color Revolutions] are being encouraged from outside." He explained that "The risks associated with attempts by a number of countries to ensure their geopolitical leadership - in order to have monopoly influence on the dynamics of regional and international development - have become topical again. For these purposes, entire regions such as the Transcaucasus and Central Asia have been declared to be objects of strategic interests of out-of-the-region organizations."[5]

Taking into the account what has been discussed above, the motivation to enhance The Tashkent Pact's military capabilities is more than clear. Just a few months ago, it was reported that CSTO will have its own Joint Rapid Reaction Force (JRRF) which could be used to protect its members from military aggression, defend critical infrastructure (strategic facilities, military bases, nuclear plants or pipeline networks) vulnerable to attack or sabotage and to carry out special operations designed to target terrorist groups as well as organized crime. Official spokesmen specified that this new branch of the CSTO "should be modern units equipped with state-of-the-art military hardware."[6] Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev emphasized that this improvement would make CSTO's JRRF "just as good as comparable NATO forces"[7]. Medvedev later explained that his country was willing to contribute the 98th Airborne Division (Ivanovo) and the 31st Air Attack Brigade (Ulyanovsk)[8]. Each of the other CSTO members is expected to contribute with at least one battalion to these armed forces. Interfax informed that Astana is seriously thinking about committing its entire elite airborne brigade to this coalition.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigoriy Karasin asserted that “in peacetime they [CSTO's JRRF] will remain placed in permanent bases. In the event of a threat of aggression to the CSTO states, as well as in order to quickly react to crisis situations, they would be redeployed to counter the threat upon the decision of the Collective Security Council of the CSTO.â€