Thread: Bush Finds Economy Is Turning From Potential Asset to Liabil

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Bush Finds Economy Is Turning From Potential Asset to Liability

Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The Bush administration has counted on growing public appreciation of a strong economy to bolster Republican prospects in fall congressional races. That hasn't materialized, and the economy may have peaked months before the election.

The public is divided over whether the economy is doing well, according to a new Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll, with a strong majority giving President George W. Bush and the Republicans negative marks on the issue.

``It wasn't long ago that the president was crowing about the economy's strength,'' said Stuart Rothenberg, publisher of the Washington-based Rothenberg Political Report. ``Now it's hard to see the economy helping the president turn around his unimpressive poll numbers. The public is unhappy, and they're likely to take that out on Republicans running for the House and Senate.''

Almost 3 out of 5 Americans disapprove of the way Bush is handling the economy, the poll shows. Economic growth is forecast to slow to an annual pace of less than 3 percent in the second half of this year, from an average of about 4 percent in the first half, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

The 56-month expansion is the fourth-longest since World War II. The economy has generated 5.4 million new jobs since June 2003, and the unemployment rate has dropped to 4.6 percent, a level economists consider full employment.

Yet many Americans remain unimpressed, the poll shows.

Fewer than 1 in 10 respondents said the economy is doing very well, and slightly more than 4 in 10 said fairly well. Almost half said the economy is doing badly, including 21 percent of those who identified themselves as Republicans. The proportion of Americans who disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy rose over the last month, to 59 percent from 54 percent in June.

Iraq War

``Bush could be doing a better job,'' said Meredith Rice of Choctaw, Oklahoma. The 34 year-old patient services representative, who considers herself an independent voter, points to gasoline prices and the cost of the war in Iraq. ``Bush is letting things here slip,'' said Rice, one of several poll respondents contacted for a follow-up interview.

More than twice as many Americans think things in the U.S. are seriously off on the wrong track as those who say they are going in the right direction. A third of Republicans say the country is on the wrong track.

The poll of 1,478 adults, including 1,331 registered voters, was taken July 28 to Aug. 1 and both samples have a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Thirty-nine percent of those surveyed identified themselves as Democrats, 35 percent as Republicans and 25 percent as independents or another affiliation.

Congressional Races

The survey may spell trouble for the Republican Party as it seeks to maintain its control of Congress. Republicans hold 231 seats in the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats are up for grabs this year, and 55 seats in the Senate, where a third of the 100 seats are being contested.

Registered voters favor Democrats over Republicans in congressional contests by a margin of 48 percent to 37 percent, according to the poll.

The attitudes of swing voters, including middle-income Americans and independents, are more troublesome still for the Republican Party.

Independent voters take a much more negative view of the economy than the overall sample, with 6 in 10 saying it's doing badly and almost two-thirds disapproving of Bush's handling of it. By a margin of 70 percent to 24 percent, independents say the country is on the wrong track.

Income Differences

Affluent Americans are more positive about the nation's direction and Bush's economic leadership. Sixty-five percent of respondents with incomes above $100,000 say the economy is doing well, compared with 45 percent of those with household incomes under $40,000 who hold that view.

Only a quarter of those in the lower income category say the nation is going in the right direction. That increases to 43 percent in the higher bracket. And while almost half of the wealthier group approves of the way Bush is handling the economy, less than a third of the lower income group does.

Americans are feeling the pain of higher costs for gasoline and electricity. Three of 4 respondents said they have been forced to conserve energy, cut back on other spending or both.

The retail price of gasoline is up 34 percent this year, reaching a national average of $3 gallon on July 24, according to the Energy Department.

Gary Murphy estimates he's spending $45 a week to fill his tank these days, compared with about $25 three years ago.

Saving on Fuel

``I ride my bicycle some places now instead of driving,'' said the Ryegate, Vermont, resident. Murphy, 57, says he's also cutting back on vacations because of higher energy prices.

On other domestic issues, Bush doesn't fare well either.

Immigration is a particularly divisive issue, even among those who call themselves Republicans. By a margin of 53 percent to 37 percent, Americans disapprove of the way Bush is handling that question. Nearly 4 in 10 Republicans surveyed said they disapprove of Bush's handling of immigration, while nearly 6 in 10 independents and two-thirds of Democrats disapprove.

Bush backs Senate legislation that would create a path to legal status for millions of undocumented immigrants. A competing bill passed by the House of Representatives focuses on border security and enforcement of immigration laws without including temporary-worker programs or a path to legal status.

`More Lenient'

``Bush tends to be more lenient on illegal immigration than I would be,'' said Russell Randolph, 31, a Republican voter who lives in Eastsound, Washington. ``Illegal immigrants are lowering wages on some jobs and making pay too low for Americans to take them. We need to take a stand on immigrants flowing into the country.''

About 6 in 10 Americans disapprove of Bush's veto last month of legislation passed by the Republican-controlled Congress that would have eased limits on federal funding for research on new embryonic stem cells.

Arthur Rowell, 60, of North Las Vegas, Nevada, said he thought Bush's veto was wrong. Stem-cell research ``would have been a good thing because there are a lot of diseases they could use it to cure,'' says Rowell, who has Type 2 diabetes.



To contact the reporter on this story:
Matthew Benjamin in Washington at
mbenjamin2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: August 2, 2006 20:15 EDT

Affluent Americans are more positive about the nation's direction and Bush's economic leadership. Sixty-five percent of respondents with incomes above $100,000 say the economy is doing well, compared with 45 percent of those with household incomes under $40,000 who hold that view.

Well of course the affluents are going to side with Bush. IMO, many of them probably benefited from using cheap illegal labor, and with the Bush administration turning the other cheek (as it were) is rewarding companies who break the law.

Americans are feeling the pain of higher costs for gasoline and electricity. Three of 4 respondents said they have been forced to conserve energy, cut back on other spending or both.

The retail price of gasoline is up 34 percent this year, reaching a national average of $3 gallon on July 24, according to the Energy Department.

Gary Murphy estimates he's spending $45 a week to fill his tank these days, compared with about $25 three years ago.

According to my math, that's an 80% increase in fuel alone at 26.6% a year for 3 years.
I don't know about you guys, but my last 3 years of pay raises haven't equalled near that percentage.

Everytime my husband gets a raise, it amounts to 1.5%, then the health insurance premiums raise.