Rate of immigration 'set to rise'

BBC
Friday September 28, 2007

The number of people migrating to the UK each year will be 45,000 more than previously predicted, figures suggest.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) had estimated that the net increase in population due to migration would be 145,000 a year.

But it has now revised that prediction upwards by about a third to an increase of 190,000 migrants per year over the next two decades.

The Conservatives say the UK "cannot cope" with this rate of growth.

Sir Andrew Green, chair of Migration Watch, said the revision was "extremely significant".

"It's a 30% increase in the predicted levels of immigration.

"The result is that 86% of our population increase will now be due to immigration, which will add 7.2 million to our population between 2004 and 2031."

Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, shadow immigration spokesman Damian Green said: "We can't carry on like this.

"This involves a population of a city the size of Liverpool being added to our population every five years or so, and obviously our public services, our infrastructure, housing demand and so on cannot cope."

Mr Green said his party wanted to see "an explicit annual limit" on the number of people allowed to enter the UK.

The ONS said the amended estimate was partly due to factoring in record net immigration in 2004 and 2005, mainly from eastern Europe.

Changes to the way migration figures were calculated also played a part, the ONS added.


Immigration Minister Liam Byrne said: "This report shows what could happen unless we take action now.

"Frankly, it underlines the need for swift and sweeping changes to the immigration system in the next 12 months.

"Migration is bringing new wealth but also new worries to Britain. That means we need to drive through radical action now to make sure our borders policy is fit for the future."

Life expectancy

The ONS said the estimates for how migrants would be distributed across the UK in years to come were also being revised.

England is projected to have 171,500 new migrants a year, over 40,000 more than previous estimates.

Scotland's new arrivals are put at 8,500 a year compared with 4,000 previously, while Northern Ireland's population is likely to rise by 500 a year rather than fall by the same number.

Conversely, Wales is now expected to receive 2,000 fewer new migrants overall than previously thought.

The ONS figures revealed other long-term predictions about the UK's population.

The average family will have 1.84 children, an increase of 0.1% on 2004 projections.

Life expectancy for babies born in 2031 will rise to 82.7 years for males and 86.2 years for females, up from 81.4 years and 85.0 years in earlier calculations.
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