Rattling the Resource Chain


By Vivian Brailey Fritschi
ISN Security Watch
22 Dec 2009


Forecast reports on scarcity predict global actors will move in on dwindling resources. Governments are taking notice, and so should the public, Vivian Fritschi writes for ISN Security Watch.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As each year comes to a close, we tend to reflect on the past and the coming year, when it is perhaps the near future that demands more urgent attention. Indeed, a troubling commonality emerges upon a review of the major security and defense white papers and various forecast reports.

Governments, corporations and research institutes paint a very similar picture of the future – one that portrays the transition from a surplus to a post-surplus world. While the latter does not necessarily mean absolute scarcity, it does suggest rising scarcity in many key resources.

This is more than just a trend; it is the underlying current that will shape the foreseeable future.

A significant part of our planetary wealth has gone into what we’ve built, used and thrown away, as visible in our national infrastructures, our cities, towns and homes, and in our mountains of trash around the world.

The implication of this global structural change should not be underestimated; as many modern systems (especially economic and industrial) were built on the fundamental assumption that resources were infinite. Still, it may be decades before the process of rethinking (and in some cases recreating) dominant and sacred theoretical paradigms trickles down to public discourse and policymaking.

Decades ahead: The prevailing outlook

As demand for natural resources increases, in turn raising their value, market players will logically shift their emphasis toward more efficient extraction, use and secure management of these resources. In the long term, an intensification of competition and/or conflict over these resources (whether ‘hot’ or ‘cold,’ inter-state or intra-state) is more likely, with corporations being the most responsive actors.

For instance, the Saudi-based Binladen Group’s effort to invest over $4 billion in rice fields in Papua is motivated by a need to secure food production, according to a Thomson Reuters report. While the report also said that the group was having difficulties acquiring land from local people, it is unclear how much pressure Papuans are under from the government and the corporation to cede land.

One of the most violent disputes over resources is playing out in the oil conflict in the Niger Delta region with Shell Oil and the Nigerian government on one side, and the Ogoni people on the other.

The anticipated rise in competition and conflicts for natural resources is balanced by the expectation that international collaboration between grassroots movements will expand to mitigate some of the most urgent or acute problems.

Conflict and security

Predictions of accelerating conflict signal a concurrent increase in weapons and arms proliferation, and criminality (including terrorism).

Traditional security issues will continue to be among the highest priorities, especially given the increasingly lethal use of weapons (due to technological advancements and innovation). However, there are already early indications, especially in defense white papers, that strengthening the tools of civil society (cooperation, mediation, facilitation, collaboration, etc.) will play an important role in future security measures.

A greater emphasis on the prevention of conflict at an early stage is expected, and both the US and UK defense strategy papers highlight the importance of collaboration.

Likewise, the Chinese defense white paper says that Beijing will continue to pursue a new security concept featuring “mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality and coordination […] [and] encourage the advancement of security dialogues and cooperation with other countries […]â€