Real Estate Prices Down 35% Since Peak… But It’s Not Over

Mac Slavo
October 31st, 2011
SHTFplan.com
82 Comments

Remember when leading real estate analysts forecasted a housing recovery and return to housing market growth? Or when the government promised that the $8000 home tax credit would stop the decline? Or when monetary experts recommended printing more dollars in the form of stimulus to stabilize prices?

All of it was for naught:

The besieged housing market has even further to fall before home prices really hit rock bottom.

According to Fiserv (FISV – News), a financial analytics company, home values are expected to fall another 3.6% by next June, pushing them to a new low of 35% below the peak reached in early 2006 and marking a triple dip in prices.

Several factors will be working against the housing market in the upcoming months, including an increase in foreclosure activity and sustained high unemployment, explained David Stiff, Fiserv’s chief economist.

Should home values meet Fiserv’s expectations, it would make it the third (and lowest) trough for home prices since the housing bubble burst.

Source: CNN Money http://tinyurl.com/3lp4je9
Foreclosures and unemployment are the elephants in the room when it comes to housing. If there are not enough jobs being created to offset those being laid off and new people entering the workforce, then people find it increasingly difficult to make their monthly mortgage payments. Couple that with an already saturated foreclosure market with a shadow inventory of millions of homes sitting unoccupied and you have the makings of a serious housing decline.

But the experts continue to predict a return to housing prosperity starting next summer:

Even after the housing market begins its comeback in mid-2012, the recovery is predicted to be modest at best. Nationwide, Fiserv is projecting that home prices will climb just 2.4% between June 2012 and June 2013.
Just like they did in 2008, 2009, and 2010:

[quote] Housing Markets Will Roar Back in 2009
The nation’s foreclosure hemorrhage has finally slowed and 2009 should see a significant decline in foreclosures as buyers return, pushing home prices up and fueling a real estate recovery. (link) http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/2 ... -Roar-2009

U.S. Housing Recovery Delayed to 2010
“My prediction is we’ll probably recover on a seasonal basis. It’s generally accepted that the homebuilding industry is off the mat and on the road to recovery.â€