RED WAVE RISING–> Elections Expert: Early Voting Shows Republicans Exceeding Their 2016 Numbers!

by Jim Hoft November 4, 2018 411 Comments

Guest post by Joe Hoft


(Photo of Trump in Florida from Jack Posobiec)

The blue wave is now a bygone figment of a liberal Hollywood fantasy.

Voter excitement is clearly with the Republican Party and President Donald Trump!

There is a Red Wave Rising!

One pundit, Michael E. Newton, has been tracking the 2018 mid-term election data to date. He addresses people’s questions about mid-term voting to date:


Michael E. Newton @MichaelENewton1

People keep asking me about the Democrats doing well recently in #earlyvoting because they are catching up in my "Change in Rep-Dem vs 2016." This isn't true. The Dems are not doing well. Let me explain...#MAGA #election2018
11:22 PM - Nov 3, 2018



Newton explains that because Democrat and Republican voting may have gotten closer each day, doesn’t mean that the Democrats are really catching up in early voting. It just means the Republican percent of gains over 2016 are not as great as they were yesterday:
Michael E. Newton @MichaelENewton1

· Nov 3, 2018

Replying to @MichaelENewton1
If the Republicans do 10 points better than the Dems in the "Change in Rep-Dem vs 2016" in the first million votes but then the Reps and Dems tie in the second million, the result moves from R+10% to R+5%.#MAGA #election2018 #earlyvoting


Michael E. Newton @MichaelENewton1

That doesn't mean the Dems did better. In fact, the Republicans help their lead. But with a larger denominator, the Republicans no longer have the same percentage gain despite having the same nominal gain.#MAGA #election2018 #earlyvoting
11:22 PM - Nov 3, 2018




What we have seen to date in the mid-term is that Republicans won early voting by huge margins but in recent days they have been about even per day.
Michael E. Newton @MichaelENewton1

· Nov 3, 2018

Replying to @MichaelENewton1
This is exactly what we've seen. Republicans came out very strong (R+4.3%) in the first days of #earlyvoting. Since then, Reps have continued (most days) to get more votes relative to 2016 but the %age has declined as the Rep margins decreased.#MAGA #election2018


Michael E. Newton @MichaelENewton1

In other words, Republicans won early #earlyvoting by huge margins, then they won the middle days by smaller margins, and more recent days have been about even.#MAGA #election2018
11:22 PM - Nov 3, 2018




Newton summarizes, would you rather be the party that has improved their #earlyvoting share since 2016 [Republicans]? Or the party that is doing worse [Democrat Socialists]?
Michael E. Newton @MichaelENewton1

· Nov 3, 2018

Replying to @MichaelENewton1
What does this say about which party is more "energetic"? Is the more energetic party the one that came out early to vote? Or the one that procrastinated?#MAGA #election2018 #earlyvoting


Michael E. Newton @MichaelENewton1


Moreover, would you rather be the party that has improved their #earlyvoting share since 2016? Or the party that is doing worse?#MAGA #election2018
11:22 PM - Nov 3, 2018




Newton’s numbers to date show this:
Michael E. Newton @MichaelENewton1

· Nov 3, 2018

Replying to @MichaelENewton1
One more thought on this thread:
What if in the end the #earlyvoting results look the same as they did in 2016? Well, 2016 was a great year for the GOP, winning the presidency and 241 House seats. That doesn't sound so bad and certainly no #bluewave.#MAGA #Election2018


Michael E. Newton @MichaelENewton1

Dems always catch up a little at end of #earlyvoting. I predicted they would this year too. But I also predict that Reps will finish more than 1.0% better than 2016, equal to ~200k added votes. I won't call that an insurmountable gain, but it's close to one.#MAGA #Election2018
11:53 PM - Nov 3, 2018




Newton says that Republicans are doing better than 2016 and they won the House. The current results don’t show an insurmountable gain, but getting close!
We can only hope that Tuesday night is as fun as two years ago –
Get out and vote for our children’s future and let’s Make America Great Again!

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/201...-2016-numbers/