Richardson’s White House Bid Not Yet a Hit Among Fellow Hispanics

http://www.nytimes.com/cq/2007/04/05/cq_2521.html

By Rachel Kapochunas, CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY
Published: April 5, 2007

New Mexico Democrat Bill Richardson’s background as a former House member, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Energy secretary and now two-term governor of his home state has long pegged him as one of the nation’s most prominent Hispanic politicians. Now he is running for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination and is widely viewed as the most serious Hispanic candidate ever for that office.

Yet a survey of Hispanic voters released earlier this week found that Richardson, whose mother is of Mexican heritage, has not yet made a major connection with this growing and increasingly potent political constituency. Richardson trails well behind the overall Democratic presidential front-runner, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, in support among Hispanic voters as well.

Though it is still quite early in the campaign cycle, giving Richardson plenty of room for gains, he currently faces a double whammy on name identification. Though well known in political circles, he is not a familiar figure to most voters of any demographic outside his home state. And with a last name inherited from his “Anglo” father, Richardson needs first to alert many Hispanic voters that he indeed shares their ethnic roots.

Only 37 percent of 1,000 Hispanic registered voters surveyed were aware that there was a Hispanic running for president, and only 25 percent of them could identify that person as Richardson, according to the survey conducted by the Democratic polling firm Lake Research Partners on behalf of the Latino Policy Coalition. The poll results were released on Monday.

But even among voters who were aware Richardson is Hispanic, Clinton was favored by 56 percent to 16 percent for Richardson in a multiple candidate primary matchup. Among all Hispanic Democrats surveyed, Clinton had the highest overall support, 60 percent, followed by 12 percent for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 9 percent for Richardson and 7 percent for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

In general election pairings, Richardson’s lead was significantly higher among Hispanics who identified Richardson as a Hispanic candidate.

Ilan Stavans, Amherst College professor of Latin America and Latino Culture and noted author, told CQPolitics.com on Wednesday that it isn’t surprising Richardson’s support improves among Latinos when he is identified as “one of Latinos’ own.” But he noted that the initial urge to rally behind a Latino could always change once issues such as abortion, the war in Iraq and immigration come into focus.

Stavans said that thus far, Richardson is the only major candidate to identify himself of Hispanic origin, “yet he uses the last name of his father, so many people don’t know he’s of Mexican descent.”

Richardson’s campaign speeches and interviews have largely focused on his resume — particularly his experience in international affairs — and broad policy ideas, and are devoid of the fact he would be the first Hispanic president of the United States if elected.

Stavans believes leaving ethnicity out of the equation for the time being is a smart strategy. “My impression is that he is waiting to position himself better . . . so as not to succumb to accusations that he is using identity politics as a tool,” Stavans said.

On the trail, Richardson frequently touts his former political offices and foreign policy acumen. Richardson was U.N. ambassador (1997-9 and Energy secretary (1998-2001) under President Bill Clinton after serving as a House member from 1983 to 1997. He continues to be involved in international issues today, even while serving as governor of New Mexico, a position to which he was elected in 2002 and overwhelmingly re-elected in 2006.

Richardson traveled to the Darfur region of Sudan in January to help negotiate a 60-day ceasefire in the brutal civil strife that has drawn world attention to that region. Richardson also has significant experience dealing with the isolated communist regime in North Korea, and the Bush administration announced Tuesday that he will jointly lead a delegation to that nation April 8-11 “to facilitate the return of the remains of missing servicemen” lost during the Korean War in the early 1950s.

Katie Roberts, Richardson’s deputy communications director, told CQPolitics.com on Wednesday that the campaign’s goal for the first quarter was reacquainting voters with the governor’s resume and ideas. But she noted that in the future, the Richardson campaign plans to target specific population segments.

“Definitely, we are looking towards making sure to do Latino and Hispanic outreach and talk about the issues that are relevant to them . . . as we’re looking to talk to all the different constituency groups,” Roberts said.

Having emerged in this decade as the largest minority group in the U.S. — surpassing the nation’s African-American population — Hispanics’ influence on politics has grown. This is evidenced, Stavans said, by candidates increasingly demonstrating their abilities to speak Spanish, the amount of money invested by both parties in Spanish-language radio and television, and how candidates approach issues of importance to Hispanics.

“We have seen this transformation of Latinos being in the margin of the political spectrum 20 to 30 years ago to moving to the center as a group in the last two presidential elections,” Stavans said.

Like most minority groups, Hispanics as a whole tend to favor the Democratic Party. There is, however, substantial variation among the many nationalities that make up the very broad Hispanic grouping. Cuban-Americans, for example, tend to side with Republicans because of that party’s perceived hardline against Cuban communist dictator Fidel Castro.

George W. Bush, during his 1994-2000 tenure as Texas governor, had unusually strong rapport for a Republican among his state’s sizable and mostly Mexican-American constituency; as president, Bush has installed Hispanics in his cabinet and proposed a guest worker program for illegal immigrants in the face of a backlash within his party among those who favor reducing the ongoing wave of immigration. The wife of his brother, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, is of Mexican heritage.

Republicans thus hailed as a major breakthrough exit polls that showed President Bush taking 44 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004 to 53 percent for Democratic challenger John Kerry.

But the sharp national downturn in the president’s popularity since his re-election, driven largely by dissent over the Iraq war, has caused a reversal for him and his party among Hispanic voters. Exit polling on Election Day 2006, when Democrats made major gains and claimed control of the Senate and the House, showed just 30 percent of Hispanic respondents saying they voted Republican to 69 percent Democratic.
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The current Lake Research poll found that 46 percent of Hispanics surveyed said they had a “close family member” or “close friend” serving in the military in Iraq or Afghanistan. A solid majority, 66 percent of the Hispanics surveyed, said they believe the war was a mistake, compared with 25 percent who believe it was the right thing to do.

Several states with large Hispanic populations will be holding or are in the process of moving their presidential primaries to earlier dates in the hopes of becoming more relevant in the nominating process. They include California, Texas, Florida and Nevada.

Richardson remains in the lower tier of Democratic candidates in national candidate preference polls, far below Clinton, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

Richardson reported raising $6 million during the first quarter of this year. That might have been regarded as at least moderate success in past campaign years, but is dwarfed in today’s hypercompetitive campaign money market: Clinton set a record for the first quarter of a presidential election cycle with $26 million in receipts, which in turn was just ahead of the $25 million Obama reported for this quarter.

Richardson’s total still gave his campaign cause to celebrate. “We proved to everybody that we are a formidable fundraising candidate,” Roberts said. “This is a governor who had to start from zero and successfully raised over $6 million dollars . . . and he was doing the day job of being governor.”

Roberts noted that the campaign is still in its early stages, and throughout this “long haul,” they believe Richardson’s credentials will help him rise to the top.

“We may not be a rock star like Obama or Clinton, but we believe that we’re the best qualified candidate,” Roberts said.