Romney, Christie Neck-and-Neck Among GOP Primary Voters If Some Big Names Don’t Run
Friday, April 29, 2011

Chris Christie and Mitt Romney are nearly dead-even in the 2012 Republican presidential race if top contenders Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin and Donald Trump end up not running as many consider likely or stumble in the early going.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters shows ex-Massachusetts governor Romney earning 27% support, while Christie, the current governor of New Jersey, picks up 26% of the vote. Paul Ryan, the Wisconsin congressman whose controversial long-term budget plan shook up the spending debate in Washington, runs a distant third with 12%.

Another former governor, Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, earns eight percent (8%) of the primary vote, followed by Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels (4%), Texas Governor Rick Perry (3%), and Jon Huntsman, ex-governor of Utah and just retired U.S. ambassador to China, with two percent (2%). Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate than the ones on this list, and 12% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Trump holds a slight lead over presumptive favorites Romney and Huckabee among likely primary voters at this stage if all the big-name contenders are included. However, few analysts consider Trump to be a serious candidate.

It’s important to note at this early stage, however, that the contest goes largely to the candidates with the highest name recognition, as Washington Examiner political analyst Michael Barone explains. John McCain never led any national polling on the 2008 GOP nomination until Rasmussen Reports showed him ahead on December 31, 2007.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely GOP Primary Voters was conducted on April 26, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. Likely GOP Primary Voters include both Republicans and unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a GOP Primary. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Little has changed in the overall dynamics of next year’s presidential race. President Obama leads Trump by a 49% to 34% margin. But no matter which of the top current contenders is the GOP nominee, the president earns between 42% and 49% of the vote. This suggests, as is typically the case when an incumbent seeks reelection, that the race is still shaping up as a referendum on the president.

Christie, who thus far has ruled out a 2012 presidential bid, has gained national exposure from his hardball budget-cutting tactics. In January, before Trump began talking about the GOP nomination, Romney led the pack among likely primary voters, followed closely by Palin, Huckabee and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Huckabee has been pushing back against recent news reports that he has made up his mind not to run and continues to say he will decide this summer. Palin has been non-committal. The August Iowa State Fair is an event that is likely to force most candidates to declare whether they are in or out. During the 2008 campaign, a strong showing in the Iowa State Fair straw poll moved Huckabee from unknown to contender virtually overnight.

Romney, who unsuccessfully sought the GOP presidential nomination in 2008, has a slight edge among Republicans. But Christie holds a double-digit lead over the former Massachusetts governor among unaffiliated voters who are likely to vote in GOP primaries.

Tea Party members likely to vote in Republican primaries strongly prefer Christie to Romney. Those who are not members of the grass roots movement favor Romney by nearly as wide a margin.

Evangelical Christian primary voters are closely divided between the two, but other Protestants like Romney more. Catholics give the nod to Christie. Those of other faiths are evenly divided.

Those who earn more than $60,000 per year favor Christie; those who earn less like Romney more.

Across all demographic categories, Christie and Romney are the clear leaders in this pack of potential GOP presidential hopefuls.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... 12/romney_
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