Thread: US Must Generate 246,600 Jobs Month To Get To Pre-Depression

US Needs To Generate 246,600 Jobs A Month To Get To Pre-Depression Employment By End Of Obama Second Term

by Tyler Durden
02/04/2011 13:15 -0500

Every time we revise the attached chart, its looks worse and worse. The first time we did an analysis of how many jobs per month the US has to generate each month to get back to the same payroll number as of November 2007, right before the start of the Greater Depression, and when accounting for the 90K/month natural growth to the labor force, something the administration continues to blissfully ignore (with the labor participation rate plunging to a 26 year low) it was in the mid 220s. As of today, the number is almost quarter of a million, or 246,600. That is how many jobs the US has to generate every single month until November 2016, or the end of Obama's improbable second turn, for the unemployment rate to get back to where it was when accounting for population growth. And while this is obviously impossible, one other thing that is concerning is that post the revised NFP numbers, not only do we now get a lower cumulative low of all jobs lost, at just over 8.6 million attained in February 2010, but as the highlighted area demonstrates, the recent trend in jobs is one of accelerating deterioration. If in the offchance it were to, gasp, snow in February, March will likely have the first negative NFP print since September. Oh yes, post today's revisions, we now learn that the months June through September actually lost jobs (granted, inclusive of census adjustments). One thing is certain: 5% unemployment will not be back for the next 5 years. 100% guaranteed.



http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-nee ... econd-term

Persons Not In Labor Force Who Want Job Now Jumps To All Time Record; Real Unemployment Rate At 12.8%

by Tyler Durden
02/04/2011 09:35 -0500

Probably the last chart to bury any doubt about just how truly horrible today's employment data was, comes from a little observed data metric: that showing the number of people who are not in the labor force, but who want a job now. http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t16.htm The number just hit 6,643K, a jump of 431K from December, and the highest number in history. These are people that would send the unemployment rate to about 12.8% if they were in the labor force (and, as indicated, looking for a job). Nothing else needs to be said.



http://www.zerohedge.com/article/person ... ime-record

Underemployment Divergence: Seasonally Adjusted U-6 Drops To Two Year Low, As Non-Seasonally Adjusted Surges To One Year High

by Tyler Durden
02/04/2011 09:11 -0500

And another curiously divergent dynamic: looking simply at the Seasonally Adjusted underemployment rate (U-6), which came at 16.1%, or the lowest since April 2009, and one might be excused for assuming that there is a silver lining, somewhere. That is, of course, until taking a look at the sister, NSA series. At 17.3%, this was the highest number since March 2010, and higher than just 3 months in the history of this series.



http://www.zerohedge.com/article/undere ... ly-adjuste

Labor Force Participation Plunges To Fresh 26 Year Low

by Tyler Durden
02/04/2011 08:57 -0500

At 64.2%, the labor force participation rate (as a percentage of the total civilian noninstitutional population) is now at a fresh 26 year low, the lowest since March 1984, and is the only reason why the unemployment rate dropped to 9% (labor force declined from 153,690 to 153,186). Those not in the Labor Force has increased from 83.9 million to 86.2 million, or 2.2 million in one year! As for the numerator in the fraction, the number of unemployed, it has plunged from 15 million to 13.9 million in two months! The only reason for this is due to the increasing disenchantment of those who completely fall off the BLS rolls and no longer even try to look for a job. Lastly, we won't even show what the labor force is as a percentage of total population. It is a vertical plunge.



http://www.zerohedge.com/article/labor- ... 6-year-low