Juárez death toll approaches 600
By Daniel Borunda / El Paso Times
Article Launched: 07/05/2008 03:16:46 PM MDT


Deaths fueled in part by the drug cartel war in the Juárez area are approaching the 600 mark and at least one expert says the violence is not likely to end soon.
The nearly 560 homicides so far this year are almost double the 304 homicides in all of last year as the Sinaloa and Juárez drug cartels battle amid a crackdown by federal forces.

"There are at least two reasons why it might get worse," said Tony Payan, a political science Mexico expert at the University of Texas at El Paso, who has been watching developments closely.

"One, there seems to be an impasse between the cartels. Neither seems to be winning out," Payan said. "Right now, it seems to be pretty much a tie." Secondly, Payan said, the Mexican federal government does not appear to be willing to "negotiate" with the cartels as it is rumored to have been done in the past. "The government seems determined to finish them off," he said.

The staggering toll is believed to be the highest in Juárez history. By comparison, the city had about 250 homicides in all of 1997 during a cartel internal power struggle following the July 4 death of reputed drug lord Amado Carrillo Fuentes.

Nuevo Laredo, population about 350,000, has had about 500 murders since 2003 due to a cartel turf war, according to report by the Congressional Research Service on Mexico's drug cartels.

"Chihuahua (state) continues to see the most pronounced levels of violence this year despite the deployment of troops and federal police,"

stated a monthly news report for June by the Justice in Mexico Project of the Trans-Border Institute at the University of San Diego.
The project, which studies criminal justice issues in Mexico, reported that the more than 500 "cartel-related deaths" in Chihuahua this year are more than three times the total in 2007.

The bloody attrition among smugglers, drug pushers and their associates, plus raids and multi-ton marijuana seizures by the military, is apparently crimping traffickers' cash flow.

Earlier this year, a Drug Enforcement Administration official in El Paso predicted that drug traffickers would start hurting financially as authorities began to pinch them.

In response, narcos have apparently found other ways to raise war funds, including robbing banks and extorting and kidnapping business owners for ransom, Juárez city officials said.

The kidnappings recently gained international attention with the seizure and subsequent release of a Juárez auto glass business owner related to the wife of U.S. Rep. Silvestre Reyes, D-Texas.

The wave of kidnappings was foreshadowed in early June when La Linea, as the Juárez drug cartel is also known, supposedly posted a message on the popular video-sharing site YouTube.com demanding prominent Juárez families and entrepreneurs pay a "quota" for protection.

A similar "war tax" was levied by drug traffickers on businesses in Nuevo Laredo during the turf war there.

Last month, several Juárez restaurants, nightclubs and other businesses were torched and a group of about 300 owners of junk yards, mechanic shops, used-car lots and other auto-related businesses closed down because of kidnappings and robberies.

Whether the businesses were linked financially, or through other ties to drug traffickers, or were merely innocent victims of blackmail is debatable. "If you are in doing an illegal business in Juárez, the cartels want you to pay them for protection or derecho de pizo, that is the right to use the plaza, as they call it, to do business," Payan said at recent El Paso Press Club event describing the trend as "dangerous."

The violence has caused some Juarenses, mostly the wealthy who can afford it, to seek refuge in El Paso, but it is difficult to know how many families have crossed the border. Payan estimated the number to be a few thousand and less than 10,000.

"We are certainly seeing an increase of people coming over (from Juárez). People renting, buying and moving. In some cases, they appear to be moving businesses over here," said Dan Olivas, president of the Greater El Paso Association of Realtors.

"The thing we are hearing about more is the fear of the kidnappings than of being caught in the crossfire of the cartels," Olivas said.

Payan said that in some respects Juárez residents are getting used to the daily death toll apparently targeting those involved in the drug business. Payan maintains the city is safe to visit though tourists are advised to be cautious and visit during the day.

"Somethings got to give," Payan said. "One of the cartels will be weakened the government will lick it up."

Daniel Borunda may be reached at dborunda@elpasotimes.com; 546-6102



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