The Libyan Battle for Misurata

Politics / Middle East
Apr 22, 2011 - 08:26 AM

By: STRATFOR

The Libyan city of Misurata is the last remaining major rebel outpost in western Libya. Misurata’s access to the sea has enabled regular shipments of food, weapons, medicine and ammunition to sustain the resistance in the face of daily attacks by forces loyal to Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi. Gadhafi’s forces are intent on retaking the port at Misurata, while the Libyan rebels based in Benghazi hope the looming humanitarian crisis in Misurata will persuade the European coalition leading the mission in Libya to deploy ground troops to assist the rebels.

Analysis

The city of Misurata is the last major rebel outpost in western Libya, with the opposition there able to hold out against the Libyan army for nearly two months of fighting due to its control of the port on the Gulf of Sidra. Rebel control of the port means access to the outside world, which has allowed a steady stream of ships to supply the city with medicine, food, weapons, and the current most-needed item, ammunition. The ships come from aid agencies (whether international organizations such as the United Nations, Red Cross or the International Organization for Migration, or national groups mainly from countries like France, Turkey and Qatar), and also from the Misuratan rebels’ allies in Benghazi.

Recent calls by rebel leaders in both Misurata and Benghazi for foreign troops to come to the city’s aid highlights the decision the European coalition leading the mission to unseat Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi must now make: Whether or not it is prepared to put forces on the ground in Libya. The Benghazi-based eastern Libyan rebel leadership knows that Misurata is its last chance to convince the international community that the opposition needs more help than just NATO airstrikes, and is doing all it can to use the looming humanitarian crisis in the city to induce the Europeans to commit troops.

Gadhafi’s forces aim to retake the port in order to end the resistance in Misurata for two main reasons:

Misurata’s symbolic value: The city is developing an image in the rest of the world as a Libyan version of Sarajevo, the Bosnian city which held out for four years while surrounded by Serbian and Bosnian Serb forces during the Yugoslav civil war. Misurata is now seen as Benghazi was in mid-March: the city whose collapse would usher in a humanitarian crisis. (It was only when Benghazi appeared on the verge of falling that the U.N. resolution which cleared the way for the implementation of the NATO no-fly zone [NFZ] was rushed through). Furthermore, the ongoing rebellion in Misurata shows that resistance against Gadhafi is not confined to eastern Libya and therefore that the rebellion is not a secessionist struggle. Indeed, other pockets of resistance beyond eastern Libya can still be found in the Western Mountains region near Nalut and Zintan. But the fighting in Misurata is much more significant because it is a city of around 500,000 people, the third-largest in the country, and located just across the Mediterranean from Europe. The longer Misurata can stand, the more hope it gives other rebel forces, and the more it keeps Libya in the Western public’s mind.

The city’s potential strategic value: Misurata’s location along the Gulf of Sidra in the west makes it a potential staging ground for an attack on Gadhafi’s core territory. This would represent a much more tangible threat to Gadhafi than any symbolic value the city might provide if a capable force intent on overthrowing the Libyan leader ever tried to use Misurata as a beachhead. However, as the Misuratans’ eastern allies are far from coalescing into a fighting force capable of challenging Gadhafi, this remains a hypothetical threat at the moment. Talk by some European nations of establishing a maritime corridor connecting the city to Benghazi for the shipment of supplies into the port would mean much more if there were a credible force that could be shipped in. If there were ever a real push to send foreign troops into Libya, however, this would truly threaten Gadhafi. This gives him the impetus to recapture the city in full as soon as possible.

Rebels claim that nearly 200 Grad artillery rockets launched on the port April 14 led to its brief closure, but since then, ships have continued to come and go amid daily reports of intense fighting. There have also been accusations that Gadhafi’s forces are using cluster munitions in Misurata, and reports have come daily since March that artillery, snipers and tanks have been deployed in the city. The Libyan government counters that the West is trying to sensationalize the situation there in order to give the United Nations pretext for calling for the deployment of ground forces.

While foreign aid has helped the rebels continue to fight, it has not allowed them to actually defeat the Libyan army, nor does the situation show much sign of shifting anytime soon. Not only are the eastern Libyan rebels not much help to their allies in Misurata, but even NATO has been unable to truly turn the tide, as the NFZ is increasingly ineffective in the current situation. Densely-packed cities make it nearly impossible for NATO jets under strict orders to avoid civilian casualties to identify targets. Indeed, the chairman of NATO’s military committee, Adm. Giampaolo Di Paola, said April 19 that the current operation makes it “very difficultâ€