Think Tank: Decades Before We See Pre-recession Joblessness

Friday, 02 Dec 2011 01:26 PM
By Forrest Jones

It will take at least two decades until unemployment rates return to pre-recession levels, says Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a nonprofit think tank.

The November unemployment rate fell to 8.6 percent from 9 percent in October not due to a surge in hiring but due to a shrinking labor force, as more people are giving up looking for jobs.

While declining. the rate is still high. It remains well above the 4.7 percent recorded in November 2007.

"At this pace of job growth, it will be more than two decades before we get back down to the pre-recession unemployment rate. Moreover, a shrinking labor force is not the way we want to see unemployment drop," Shierholz says, according to CNBC.

"At this rate of growth, we are looking at a long, long schlep before our sick labor market recovers."

The economy added 120,000 net nonfarm payrolls in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which others view as lackluster.

"Overall, the continued modest employment gains reflect an economy that plods along at an uninspiring pace," Kathy Bostjancic, director of macroeconomic analysis at The Conference Board, says in a statement, CNBC adds.

"These modest job gains are still not enough to propel economic growth to a sustainable 2 percent-plus growth path."

Some say the rate will rise in the coming months as more people tiptoe back into the job market.

"I won't be surprised if the official unemployment rate creeps up as people start looking for work over the next few months," says Stephen Bronars, senior economist with Welch Consulting, ABC News reports.

"So, although it's counterintuitive, an increase in the official unemployment rate over the next few months wouldn't necessarily be bad news."

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