Monday, October 6, 2008
Thursday is D-Day

Forget the stock market gyrations. Forget Bernanke and Paulson's ineffective, unconstitutional schemes.

Thursday's auction for Lehman's credit default swaps (CDS) is much more important.

Why?

Well, if banks are reassured by the CDS auction, it could do more to free up frozen capital than all of the Fed and Treasury's ill-conceived plans put together.

As Bill Gross, head of $721 billion dollar fund Pimco, says:

Credit markets are based on trust and when there is no trust, markets can freeze up . . . . Imagine yourself at the drive-thru ordering a Big Mac. At one window you order and pay, at the other – 20 feet ahead – you pick up your lunch. What if you thought that after paying at the first window, your 1000 calorie sandwich might not be waiting for you a few seconds later. You might not pay; business as usual might not take place. That is what is happening in the credit markets. They are frozen in “McFear.â€