Thread: Trump arrives in Japan with his Asia policy in tatters, to Abe's benefit

Trump arrives in Japan with his Asia policy in tatters, to Abe's benefit

Analysis by James Griffiths, CNN
Updated 12:37 AM ET, Fri May 24, 2019

Hong Kong (CNN)Shinzo Abe's long game is paying off. Only a year ago, the Japanese Prime Minister was looking like the odd one out as US President Donald Trump cozied up to China's Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Now, as Trump arrives in Japan Saturday for a three-day visit, Abe can justifiably say "I told you so."
Traits that last year left him out of step with Washington -- his hawkishness on North Korea and a testy relationship with Beijing -- now look more attractive, with Trump facing renewed challenges from Pyongyang and seeking a counterbalance to China amid a rapidly worsening trade war.

One-sided bromance

For most of Trump's first term, Abe has seemed like the friend who comes on too strong.

He was the first foreign leader to meet Trump after his election, flying to New York for a sit-down at Trump Tower before the inauguration even took place. Since then, the two leaders have spoken on the phone almost 20 times, according to White House records, and met in person in both the US and Japan.

They share an affinity for golf, playing on courses in Florida and Saitama, and made pains to publicly congratulate each other on "historic" election wins -- even, as in Trump's case last year, results didn't particularly go his way. Abe may also have nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.

But despite an apparent bromance between the two, they have diverged massively on policy. Abe was the most hawkish of all Asian leaders on North Korea, in apparent alignment with Trump's policy of maximum pressure against "rocket man" Kim. That is, until the US leader suddenly switched to diplomacy, wrong-footing Tokyo and leaving Abe scrambling for his own summit that -- even as Kim met with China's Xi, South Korea's Moon Jae-in and Russian President Vladimir Putin -- is still yet to take place.

On trade too, Trump has treated Japan with more hostility than Tokyo appeared to expect, complaining last year that the country had "hit us hard on trade for years."

With the twin pillars of Trump's Asia policy wobbling and threatening to fall, the timing of his Japan trip couldn't be better for Abe.

An expected trade deal with China dramatically fell apart this month as Beijing appeared to push its luck with Trump, sparking an angry response and billions of dollars in extra tariffs. The rapidly expanding trade war is expected to hit US consumers hard, leaving many businesses -- including those typically supportive of Trump -- bewildered and angry.

"The President of the United States owes farmers like myself some type of plan of action," John Wesley Boyd Jr., a soybean farmer in Baskerville, Virginia, told CNN. "Farmers were his base. They helped elect this president ... and now he's turning his back on America's farmers when we need him the most."

Trump will look to Japan to offer some relief on trade, or at least an easy win. Last month, the two sides held the first round of negotiations towards a trade agreement. While Trump has spoken of a need to address the trade imbalance with Japan -- a $67.7 billion deficit in 2018 -- his advisers and both Republicans and Democrats have urged him to ease up on tariffs when it comes to allies and focus on China.

A trade deal with Japan that offers relief for US consumers or farmers could be a major win for Trump, and would help Washington maintain pressure on China.

Military moves

Trump may also need Japan's support on security issues -- and not just with North Korea.

Under President Moon, who more than anyone else has driven rapprochement with North Korea, Seoul is ill-placed to turn back to a position of maximum pressure if talks completely collapse. It is more likely to continue pursuing engagement in defiance of Washington, making Japan the more important ally in the region.

In recent years, Japan has reinterpreted its pacifist constitution -- which Abe expressed a desire to rewrite completely -- to allow it to come to the aid of the US militarily. Tokyo also increased defense spending, including major deals with US arms companies.

"A united US-Japan approach to North Korea will also place more pressure on Kim Jong Un and his main benefactor, China," wrote international relations expert Paul Sracic for CNN recently, adding that Japan was Washington's "most important 21st-century ally."

Japan is also facing increased military confrontations with China over disputed islands that previously brought the two countries to the edge of conflict. In April, Tokyo scrambled jets to intercept Chinese bombers as they flew between the Japanese islands of Okinawa and Miyako.

While Tokyo will look to Washington for support against Chinese encroachment in the East China Sea, the situation may be reversed in the South China Sea, where the US is ramping up patrols in defiance of Beijing. Tokyo has suggested it could join other countries conducting "freedom of navigation" operations in those waters, where a Japanese submarine previously took part in drills, angering China.

During his Japan trip, Trump will also become the first foreign leader to meet the country's new Emperor, Naruhito. He was formally crowned on May 1, sparking the start of the new Reiwa era.

After years of being a bit player in Trump's Asia strategy, Abe's investments in his relationship with the US President could finally be paying off -- Reiwa may herald a renewed, stronger relationship between Washington and Tokyo.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/23/asia/...ntl/index.html

I hope everything goes well on this trip and a new US-Japan trade deal is ready to announce soon. I think they're getting close. I sure hope so anyway.

Last real news on this one below, except for announcement yesterday that Japan had agreed to lift restrictions on American beef.

Trump says sees possibility of U.S.-Japan trade deal by May

Steve Holland, David Brunnstrom
April 26, 2019 / 4:56 PM / 25 days ago

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump said on Friday it is possible that the United States and Japan could reach a new bilateral trade deal by the time he visits Tokyo in May, but he and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe cited areas where they differ on trade.

Trump and Abe held one-on-one talks in the Oval Office prior to a White House dinner to celebrate the birthday of Trump’s wife, Melania. While making progress in negotiations with China on a new trade deal, Trump made clear he wants to seal a new agreement with Japan soon as well.

Abe’s visit, which is to include a round of golf on Saturday with Trump, is to set the stage for a trip to Japan that Trump is taking in late May to celebrate Crown Prince Naruhito’s becoming the new emperor of Japan.

Trump announced that he and Abe may take in a sumo wrestling match during the trip to Tokyo.

Naruhito is set to become Japan’s emperor on May 1. He will assume the throne after his father, Emperor Akihito, abdicates on April 30.

Trump said negotiators for the United States and Japan are making progress in his drive to rebalance their trade relationship in a way that reduces chronic U.S. trade deficits with Japan.

“I think it can go fairly quickly. Maybe by the time I’m over there. Maybe we sign it over there. But it’s moving along very nicely and we’ll see what happens,” Trump said about the trade deal.

A senior Japanese government official told Reuters after the Oval Office discussions that “based upon the trust between the two countries,” the two leaders “agreed to accelerate the discussions in order to achieve an early result on Japan-U.S. trade talks.”

Still, areas of tension surfaced during their session with the news media. Trump cited Japanese tariffs on American agricultural products as an irritant, and Abe brought up U.S. tariffs on Japanese autos.

“We’ll be discussing very strongly agriculture because, as the prime minister knows, Japan puts very massive tariffs on our agriculture...and we want to get rid of those tariffs,” Trump said.

Trump has made clear he is unhappy with Japan’s trade surplus with the United States - much of it from auto exports - and wants a two-way deal to change it.

Abe pointed out that while Japan has no tariffs on American autos, “the United States has put on 2.5 percent tariffs on Japanese autos,” and said he would like to proceed toward a “mutually beneficial outcome” in the trade talks.

Trump said he felt it was possible to work out a long-term trade deal with Japan.

Still, areas of tension surfaced during their session with the news media. Trump cited Japanese tariffs on American agricultural products as an irritant, and Abe brought up U.S. tariffs on Japanese autos.

“We’ll be discussing very strongly agriculture because, as the prime minister knows, Japan puts very massive tariffs on our agriculture...and we want to get rid of those tariffs,” Trump said.

Trump has made clear he is unhappy with Japan’s trade surplus with the United States - much of it from auto exports - and wants a two-way deal to change it.

Abe pointed out that while Japan has no tariffs on American autos, “the United States has put on 2.5 percent tariffs on Japanese autos,” and said he would like to proceed toward a “mutually beneficial outcome” in the trade talks.

Trump said he felt it was possible to work out a long-term trade deal with Japan.

“We are trying to bring some balance to the surplus that they have with the United States for many, many years, but it’ll all work out,” he said.

“FREE AND OPEN INDO-PACIFIC”

The senior Japanese government official said the two leaders agreed that the governments would coordinate closely with each other and with South Korea to achieve the denuclearization of North Korea. He said Abe thanked Trump for twice raising the issue of Japanese abductees held in North Korea during his February summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

The official said Abe and Trump also agreed to enhance the “deterrence and capabilities” of the U.S.-Japan alliance and reaffirmed their intention to cooperate further to ensure a “free and open Indo-Pacific” region.

Looking ahead to the June 28-29 Group of 20 meeting in Osaka, the two agreed to seek a summit agreement on key issues, including trade, the digital economy, the issue of maritime plastic waste, infrastructure investment, and women’s empowerment, said the official, who did not want to be otherwise identified.

In the Oval Office, Trump joked that when Abe originally invited him to Tokyo as the first official guest after the new emperor takes over, he was not sure he could attend.

“I said, ‘Gee I don’t know if I can make it. Let me ask you a question. How big is that event compared to the Super Bowl, for the Japanese? And the prime minister said, It’s about 100 times bigger. I said, I’ll be there, if that’s the case, I’ll be there,” Trump said.

Abe said Japan will enter a new era, to be called Reiwa, on May 1 when the Japanese crown prince accedes to the throne. He said Trump and the first lady would be the first state guests of the new era.

“This state visit will show both inside and outside that still under the new era, Reiwa, the bonds between Japan and the United States under our alliance will remain unwavering. And also we will demonstrate our strong commitment to addressing various challenges that we see in the international community,” Abe said through a translator.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1S229E