U.S. 3rd Quarter GDP Likely Negative, Recession Never Ended

Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
Aug 23, 2010 - 05:07 AM

By: Mike_Shedlock

While some people still think the odds of a double dip recession are close to zero, ironically, the only reason they may be right is if the first dip never ended.

Please consider last Friday's Breakfast With Dave, wherein Rosenberg stated U.S. RECESSION NEVER ENDED; GDP TO CONTRACT IN Q3

Our suspicions have been confirmed — the recession never ended. https://ems.gluskinsheff.net/Articles/B ... 082010.pdf

Macroeconomic Advisers produces a monthly U.S. real GDP series and it shows that the peak was in April, as we expected, with both May and June down 0.4% in the worst back-to-back performance since the economy was crying Uncle! back in the depths of despair in September-October 2008.

The quarterly data show that Q2 stands at a +1.1% annual rate (so look for a steep downward revision for last quarter) and the “build inâ€