Thread: Unemployment now a leading indicator 22-3/8%

White House Pushes for a Wall Street Overhaul

A weekly excerpt from the subscription issue of The International Forecaster, taken from Bob Chapman's weekly publication. July 14 2010:

A Fed official with a Brain, Unemployment numbers now a leading indicator, Lawsuits against Goldman Sachs, no love for BP, four more banks down the tubes, trade deficits widen and confidence falls...

Last week was the opposite of the previous week. The Dow rose 5%, S&P 5.1%, the Russell 2000 4.8% and the Nasdaq 100 4.8%. Banks rose 8.9%; broker/dealers 5.1%; consumers 4.5%; utilities 5.5%; high tech 5%; semis 5.6%; Internets 5.9% and biotechs 3%. Gold bullion was unchanged, the HUI rose 2.1% and the USDX fell 0.6% to 83.95.

The 2-year T-bills rose 1 bps to .60%, the 10-year note rose 8 bps to 3.06% and the 10-year German bund rose 5 bps to 2.63%.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates fell 1 bps to 4.57%, the 15’s rose 3 bps to 4.07%, the one-year ARMs fell 5 bps to 3.75% and the 30-year jumbo’s fell 1 bps to 5.49%.

Fed credit declined $1.7 billion. Fed foreign holdings of Treasuries and Agencies rose $2.8 billion YTD, or 9.5% and YOY 11.3%.

M2, narrow, money supply rose $11.9 billion to $8.624 trillion. YTD it is up 2.6% annualized. YOY it is up 2.2%.

Total money market fund assets rose a strong $17.5 billion to $2.830 trillion. YTD their assets have fallen $464 billion, or YOY, down 22.9%.

Total commercial paper fell $7 billion to $1.091 trillion. It is off 13% annualized, or $45 billion.

Here’s a story that appeared after Monday’s close and it will be ignored because it directly rebukes the rationale for the current rally: Duke Says Fed Has ‘No Plans’ to Use More Monetary Policy Tools.

“There are a lot of reserves out there in the system,â€

$2.3 trillion and 17 months later saw GDP improve for a year and as the stimulus and the injection of Fed funds waned, the US economy was brought back to reality. The key as to why the stimulus didn’t continue was the lack of job creation and real unemployment of 22-3/8%. The recovery was only a phase in a deteriorating still inflationary depression

you can believe unemployment is at 9.5 percent if you want; but you would be lying to yourself