US frets over Tokyo drift


By Peter J Brown
Asia Times
Nov 5, 2009


As Japan's Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama speaks of the need for change, and signals his desire to forge a more robust partnership with China to create a viable East Asian "community", he must remain in close contact with fellow Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) members, other members of his new coalition government and Japan's military - known as the Self-Defense Forces (JSDF).

The United States will also need to be informed of exactly where things stand as Hatoyama tries to find a way "to show that he changed course on the alliance - creating more 'independence' for Japan without actually doing any damage to the security relationship that guarantees Japan's survival in a dangerous neighborhood", according to Michael Green, senior adviser and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC.

"So, we are in for another few months - if not years - of uncertainty. In the end, public opinion and the reality of the strategic situation in Asia suggest the US-Japan alliance will stay strong and may even get stronger, but now there is a certain amount of drift and uncertainty that is not welcome in Washington," said Green.

"While Hatoyama is not willing to change Japan's relationship with the US, the US has begun to question the posture of the Hatoyama government," said Kazuto Suzuki, an associate professor of International Political Economy at Hokkaido University's School of Public Policy. "Hatoyama is not fully aware of the change in the mood in the US, particularly at the Pentagon."

What happens at sea in particular - both in the Pacific and to a lesser extent in the Indian Ocean - is of the utmost importance to the Japan-US alliance. The US is not about to alter its military cooperation and technology-sharing arrangement with Japan based on a few of Hatoyama's more seemingly altruistic pronouncements about the need for a shift in direction in Japan's foreign policy.

"Short of a major rupture in the alliance, such a linkage does not exist yet for the sea-based Ballistic Missile Defense [BMD] system," said associate professor Toshi Yoshihara of the US Naval War College's Strategy and Policy Department. "Both need each other for the sea-based component of missile defense as it is currently configured to work. The US needs the forward bases in Japan for its Aegis destroyers and the radar sites based on Japan to detect, track, and intercept missiles launched from the region. Japan needs the anti-missile umbrella and the technologies for an independent capability furnished by the US."

The JSDF are certainly aware of the not-so-subtle shift in attitude in the US. Yet at the same time, the JSDF has been flexible and pragmatic when it comes to its dealings with China. Why not? This appears to be a very logical and sound approach at a time when General Xu Caihou, vice chairman of China's Central Military Commission, has been meeting in the Pentagon with US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, and when other Chinese generals have been welcomed aboard the US aircraft carrier George Washington as it recently lay at anchor in Hong Kong harbor for the first time.

"The regional community, or East Asian Community, issue is strictly limited to the economic and cultural domain at this moment. The [JSDF] do not consider that this concept will evolve into military cooperation," said Suzuki, who added that the JSDF are on good terms with the Chinese military on a bilateral basis. "The contacts of senior officers, and a constant exchange of information are facilitating this bilateral relationship."

The JSDF are aware of the boundaries which inhibit Japan from going too far down this road for a number of reasons, including the fact that numerous joint projects are now underway with the US. Many are very sensitive involving anti-missile, satellite and anti-submarine technology.

For example, one joint US-Japan project involves the SM-3 block 2A interceptor missile, along with a follow-on known as the SM-3 Block 2B. These missiles are not only key components in the BMD system that both Japan and the US embrace, but also now vital to Europe's BMD plans.

In addition, Japan is still seeking access to very sophisticated US military equipment such as the F-22 advanced fighter aircraft, although many observers see this as a quest that has run almost entirely out of steam.

"The JSDF are generally optimistic about a more dynamic political leadership emerging from the DPJ ranks. Moreover, the uniformed military has better relations with the DPJ than many of the bureaucracies more closely associated with the Liberal Democratic Party [LDP] such as the Foreign Ministry or the Health Ministry," said Green.

This does not mean that the JSDF support everything that Hatoyama and the DPJ have said and done during the past few months.

"[The JSDF appear to be concerned by] the DPJ's rather cavalier rhetoric about China and the US. [Another concern] is the downward pressure on the defense budget by the DPJ which is likely to emphasize things that get votes at home," said Green. "Finally, the senior officers were unhappy that Japanese Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa criticized their performance in the Indian Ocean, believing that criticism of the LDP's policies should not lead to criticism of the JSDF for doing their duty."

Hatoyama informed the Diet (parliament) in early November that Japan would terminate its refueling mission in the Indian Ocean in mid-January. On the very next day, Kitazawa said there was a very strong possibility that Japan would commence another refueling mission in early 2010 in support of the multi-national naval force assigned to anti-piracy duties off the coast of Africa.

While US President Barack Obama makes his first official trip to Asia this month, it seems unlikely that some sort of sweeping declaration about joint US-Japan defense issues will be made during his visit to Japan.

According to Yoshihara, "North Korean missile tests and China's impressive missile modernization program showcased during the National Day celebrations on October 1 underscore the missile danger to Japan and the US."

"This is a shared threat perception that goes back more than a decade with the DPRK's [Democratic People's Republic of Korea, or North Korea] Taepodong missile launch in July 1998. As a result, there is consensus within the trans-Pacific strategic community that deterrence-by-denial through missile defense is one important element for providing security," said Yoshihara.

That said, any BMD cooperation involving Japan and the US cuts both ways politically.

"On the one hand, a genuine joint BMD architecture would mean unprecedented integration and information sharing. This could be interpreted as putting Japan on a more equal footing with the US, a key foreign policy item of the DPJ's campaign manifesto," said Yoshihara. "On the other hand, Tokyo could become even more reliant on cutting-edge US capabilities for its defense, thus lending credence to those who fear overdependence on the United States."

For a joint BMD system to work properly, Japan needs to resolve clearly the issue of collective self-defense, "a right that Tokyo has denied to itself", according to Yoshihara. In fact, BMD is fast becoming a key barometer of the alliance's long-term vitality at the tactical, operational and strategic levels.

"Suppose North Korea fires a missile at the US. Would Japanese tracking or interception of the missile constitute collective self defense? What if Japan failed to intercept the missile because Tokyo feared violating the ban on collective self defense? What if, as a consequence, Washington accuses Tokyo of dereliction of duty as a treaty ally? So, BMD cooperation is not problem - free for Japan," said Yoshihara.

Since August's election in Japan brought to an end nearly 50 years of continuous rule by the LDP, Suzuki says "there are too many things going on, and defense [policy] is one thing that they [the DPJ] do not have to bother with too much because stability is so important".

However, when it comes to Japan's defense budget, the DPJ and the JSDF might find themselves in a very sticky situation.

"Although the Japanese military is willing to accept new changes [proposed by the DPJ], their primary concern is how to protect the defense budget from any huge budget cuts," said Suzuki. "However, Kitazawa maintains a good relationship with the Japanese military, and acts on their behalf. So, senior members of the military [generally support the DPJ's efforts to create a new defense strategy], but are holding firm against the budget cuts."

The outcome here is quite difficult to predict. Certain members of this new left of center coalition government, especially the Social Democratic Party (SDP), have consistently charted a pacifist course and almost automatically endorse all reductions in defense spending. Still, the SDP has not resorted to a spirited nor prolonged attack as far as Japan's plans for BMD are concerned.

"Although the SDP has never acknowledged that BMD is constitutional, it seems that they find BMD to be acceptable within their idea of Japan's constitution," said Suzuki, who added that for the SDP to adamantly oppose everything on Hatoyama's current defense agenda "would be suicidal".

"The SDP will not spread their front into lots of different issues as long as there are specific issues that need to be solved. If the US adopted some hawkish approach towards North Korea or China, the SDP may be a problem, but so far, the Obama administration has not done so," said Suzuki.

While some point to the ranks of the former Socialist Party or coalition members with close ties to academics on the left as those likely to seize upon the BMD issue to help unravel US-Japan relations, the simple truth is that anti-BMD sentiment has always been quite close to the surface within the ranks of the DPJ itself.

In September, for example, soon after the election, one DPJ Lower House member and DPJ deputy spokesman urged the new government to eliminate BMD altogether. Tsuyoshi Yamaguchi branded BMD as "almost totally useless" and nearly set off a political firestorm in the process. Yamaguchi objected strongly to a request for more than a 50% increase in missile defense-related expenditures in next year's budget.

"Regardless of the threat from North Korea, defense specialists must know that no number of SM3s or PAC3s can directly protect us," Yamaguchi told Bloomberg.

"Even current Foreign Minister [Katsuya] Okada has expressed doubts about BMD in the past. But the program is well established and has worked in field testing and in surveillance of North Korean launches, so I do not expect any serious setbacks," said Green.

Last month's successful completion of a joint tracking exercise, the final in a series of four tests conducted by the Japanese destroyer, JS Myoko, is the latest indicator of the continuing success of this joint collaboration.

"This is an increasingly proven capability that would benefit both sides. Given the 'sunk costs' and prospective benefits for both sides, I doubt that Hatoyama's policies would end or curtail BMD cooperation. Indeed, it is one of the emerging success stories for the alliance," said Yoshihara. "This is not a capability that Washington can withdraw or deny without consequences."

Beyond BMD, Green emphasizes the importance of the decision by the DPJ to not oppose the JSDF anti-piracy mission which suggests the "normalization" of Japanese security policy may not slow down that much under the DPJ.

"This involves two new precedents, including Japan's first overseas base in Djibouti and Japan's first rules of engagement allowing the use of deadly force to protect a third nation's vessels - though against pirates rather than another state," said Green. "[Normalization] could even accelerate after next summer's [Upper House] election clears out the socialists and other obstacles to moving the government back towards the center of the ideological spectrum."

Hatoyama is well aware of the forces at work here, including external forces that help to shape US-Japan relations over China, Taiwan and North Korea. In Taiwan, President Ma Ying-jeou has recently accused the US government of being too easily influenced by China as he declared that the US is stalling with respect to the planned sale to Taiwan of 66 F-16 fighter aircraft. Ma knows that he is irritating China enormously by even mentioning this sale, and he also knows that if this sale goes forward, China will be furious with the US, and will find ways to punish the US accordingly.

Certainly, North Korea does not appreciate the timing of new revelations in the Japanese media these past few days concerning the abductions of Japanese citizens by the North Koreans and the allegation that Kim Jong-il exercised command authority over North Korean abduction operations starting in the 1970s. When Kim met with prime minister Junichiro Koizumi in 2002, he denied any role in these operations.

This almost guarantees that Pyongyang's volatility and confrontational stance will be ramping up over the coming days, especially when Obama's trip to the region already lent itself to exploitation by the North Koreans. Their rhetoric concerning reprocessing and nuclear weapons-related matters of late, for example, is definitely an indication that Pyongyang has more news flashes in store for Obama's trip to Asia.

All of this noise from North Korea and increasing static in Taiwan elevates the status of the BMD and gives the US-Japan alliance added weight, whether Japanese politicians like it or not.

Hatoyama is engaged in a delicate balancing act here. As everyone mulls the otherwise anemic economic rebound, he must closely monitor events in China, Taiwan and North Korea while hoping that when Obama arrives in Tokyo, Obama understands that the air is charged and that his every move in Japan and elsewhere in the region could profoundly affect the stability of the Japanese government and the future of East Asia.

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