Thread: What to watch for in the New York special election

Posted at 07:19 AM ET, 05/24/2011

What to watch for in the New York special election

By Aaron Blake and Chris Cillizza

For the third time in three years, the political world is looking to upstate New York for answers.

Yet again, a special election in the region has Washington abuzz about just what the political environment will be like heading into the next election.

We’ve written before about how drawing broad conclusions about the entire country from one of 435 House districts is often a fool’s errand, but there are certain lessons that will be learned during today’s special election and certain things that are worth keeping an eye on.

So as you watch the results tonight, here’s a primer to help you keep score:

* Medicare: As their candidate has taken the lead, Democrats have successfully turned this into the storyline of the race. This much is clear: GOP Assemblywoman Jane Corwin, like many other Republicans, would rather not have to talk about Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) unpopular proposal to reform Medicare. But she did have to, because her race is in May 2011, not November 2012. The question is, if she loses in a conservative district, do other Republicans finally stop dancing around the issue and abandon the Medicare idea altogether? Whether Corwin actually loses because of Medicare or not, it may be enough to scare Republicans away from the reform.

* Jack Davis: Imagine: a former Democratic nominee for the very same seat, returning as a third-party candidate and stealing votes from ... the Republican. It’s the storyline that Republicans are pitching, and it makes sense, given that Davis is running (somewhat misleadingly) on the “Tea Partyâ€

Related Thread Here
All eyes on New York's special

http://www.alipac.us/ftopict-238953.html