Thread: Under Obama, Immigration Reform May Have to Wait

Friday, November 21, 2008

Under Obama, immigration reform may have to wait

Letter from Washington: Pressing economic crisis may push this issue to back burner as advocates face reality.

Dena Bunis
Washington Bureau Chief
The Orange County Register
dbunis@ocregister.com Comments 20| Recommend 3

I never thought I would say this but guess what the prevailing strategy on immigration reform is among advocates in this town? Pragmatism and patience.

This year's election gave immigration advocates everything they could have asked for – more Democrats in the House and Senate and a president who promised to support and push the kind of comprehensive immigration reform bill they have been seeking for a decade.

And just to put the icing on the cake, they can point to states where Latino voters made the difference to Barack Obama's victory and to the Democrat's ability to extend their margins in Congress. The states I'm talking about are Colorado, Florida, New Mexico and Nevada. They were red in 2004 and turned blue three weeks ago.

So after all the years that we've questioned when and if this fastest growing electoral bloc will have an impact on elections, that question has pretty much been answered. That voting group has clearly come of age.

Having said all that, it's clear that the 44th president of the United States is going to have more pressing concerns on his plate than immigration on Jan. 20. The economic crisis will obviously be the most pressing. And he will also likely begin working quickly to fulfill his promise to bring the troops home from Iraq in 16 months, lest his progressive base start carping. And high on his list is to make good on his promise for health care reform.

When I went to a series of forums over the past couple of weeks on the impact of Latinos in in the election and the future of the immigration issue, I expected to hear the same impatience and insistence on immediate action that has been at the heart of the advocates' argument for years.

But I didn't. I heard from people who believe that eventually they will win but know that getting their way isn't a slam dunk – and certainly not in the first 100 – or maybe even first 1,000 days of the Obama administration.

People who oppose giving any kind of benefits to illegal immigrants argue that Congress would ignore the will of the public for enforcement only if it passed comprehensive immigration reform. And they credit that public opinion with the inability of lawmakers to get a bill to President George W. Bush during his two terms.

But the polls on this issue have been consistent: the public supports -- usually by two-thirds – the kind of reform envisioned in the original McCain-Kennedy bill. But that support is soft. What I mean by that is while for Latino voters, immigration is a threshold any candidate must cross to have their support, for the general public immigration has not risen to an issue as important as the economy, health care, or even foreign policy.

Having said that, the advocates will have to work to convince lawmakers that this should be a political priority.

And something that seems to be emerging this year is a realistic view that enforcement -- particularly in the workplace -- needs to be front and center of any bill. Tying the need to have legal workers paying taxes to getting the 12 million undocumented employees out from the shadows may be the argument advocates will adopt.

Another expectation is that lawmakers will stay away from any measure that would increase the number of immigrants who enter the American workforce.

Jeanne Butterfield, head of the American Immigration Lawyers Association, suggested at one of these forums that it is unlikely that we'll see a new guest worker program as part of any new immigration bill. Her view was also embraced by Doris Meissner, former commissioner of the old INS and now a fellow at the Migration Policy Institute.

And beyond the strategic necessity to probably not call for more foreign workers at a time when U.S. unemployment is at an all-time high, jettisoning any guest worker program will likely meet with resounding approval at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. During the 2007 immigration debate then-Sen. Obama was among a group of lawmakers, which included California's senators, which argued against a new guest-worker program. Much of their reasoning was because organized labor opposed such a plan. But whatever the reason, it makes sense to take a proposal off the table that all know is opposed by the new president.

By the way, much can happen on the immigration front on Obama's side of Pennsylvania Ave.

An indication of how important he believes the issue is may be is that it's looking like Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano will become his homeland security secretary. Napolitano has a lot of credibility on this issue. She's a border governor. She has opposed the fence but called for more security. She lambasted Congress for not passing comprehensive reform that included legalization. But at the same time, as governor she signed a law requiring Arizona businesses to use E-Verify, DHS's computerized worker verification system.

Advocates hope Napolitano will do things administratively to curtail workplace raids against illegal immigrants. And how she deals with such issues will be a window into Obama's true intentions on immigration.

On Capitol Hill there is much we don't know yet about how this debate will shake out. And one key question is who will lead the charge among lawmakers and what will the strategy be?

The last two times reform was attempted – in 2006 and 2007, the Senate went first. The theory was there was more support there and if the Senate passed a strong bill the House would almost be forced to follow suit.

After two failed tries in the Senate, some observers believe the strategy will be to try a streamlined bill in the House first.

In the House, Democrats Zoe Lofgren of San Jose, Jose Gutierrez of Illinois and Howard Berman of Los Angeles will likely be key proponents.

Republican Brian Bilbray of San Diego, Democrat Heath Shuler of North Carolina and Orange County's Dana Rohrabacher and Ed Royce will likely play active roles in opposing any bill that benefits illegal immigrants.

In the Senate it's unclear.

Sen. Edward Kenney was the driving force hind reform last year. But his health may limit how much he can do policy wise and it's no secret that he is committed to getting health reform under an Obama administration.

Will Sen. John McCain return to his original immigration beliefs and be part of a bipartisan coalition? No one knows yet.

And will Sen. Jeff Sessions of Alabama again pull together enough senators to block any comprehensive action in that chamber?

I'll be watching.

WHAT YOU SAID

Last week I asked where you'd all like to be on inauguration day. 41 percent said they'd like to be in Washington to personally see Barack Obama sworn in; 38 percent said they plan to watch on television. And 21 percent said they don't care and won't be watching.

Here's this week's poll:

Will comprehensive immigration reform happen during Barack Obama's first term?
Yes

No

Don't know

View Results

Bunis is the Register's Washington Bureau Chief.
Contact the writer: (202) 628-6381 or dbunis@ocregister.com

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/immi ... -advocates

But the polls on this issue have been consistent: the public supports -- usually by two-thirds – the kind of reform envisioned in the original McCain-Kennedy bill.

There is typical sloppy, misleading MSM reporting on illegal immigration in this article as evidenced by the above false sentence. But I do agree that there are huge pressing matters such as the economy that Obama (and the country) should focus on, rather than a mass amnesty of millions of illegals (which would be bad politics and even worse public policy).