Thread: BETTER OFF LOSING

BETTER OFF LOSING
By JOHN PODHORETZ


May 25, 2007 -- PRESIDENT Bush wants this new immigration bill. He wants it badly. He said yesterday that he ran both in 2000 and in 2004 as an immigration reformer and he's fulfilling his campaign promises.
He will take it hard if the bill goes down to defeat. He believes in it.

And yet, as was true of the popular revolt that led to the withdrawal of the name of the clearly unqualified Harriet Miers as a Supreme Court nominee in 2005, he will be far better off if he doesn't get what he wants. And so will his party.

Bush needs a unified Republican Party going into the fall, which may be the most difficult moment of his presidency. The most likely scenario is that Gen. David Petraeus will report modest to substantial improvements in the war in Iraq, but not definitively enough to fend off Democratic efforts to use his report as a key occasion to end the war.

The president must have his own party in his corner at that time. And yet the party is on the verge of self-immolation over immigration. Passage of the bill would drain most of the remaining affection and respect for Bush from Republicans on Capitol Hill, who would have to deal with the populist fallout from the bill's passage.

He needs all the help he will get. And he will lose a lot of help.

What's astonishing about the bill's arrival is that the White House knows perfectly well it's political poison. In 2004 Bush first announced his immigration reform plans, and the response from the Republican base was so violent that he immediately tabled the subject.

Last year an immigration bill surfaced and all hell broke loose again. It was the dominant subject on talk radio for two months, and helped contribute to the lassitude that overcame the GOP base in the months before the election.

So here is Bush, entering a critical period on the most critical issue of his presidency and for the nation - and he is playing salesman for a piece of legislation that divides his own supporters.

That's bad politics.

In fact, this bill is bad politics all around. Strangely enough, it's not clear that its passage would be good for any current elected official. Ill-timed pieces of legislation often have the effect of frightening everybody and appealing to nobody.

Despite reports that more than 60 votes are committed for the bill in the Senate, that could change very rapidly. Polls now suggest opponents outnumber supporters two to one. Those opponents are very, very vocal, while the bill's natural supporters seem to be full of weird complaints about it (like that a border fence will hurt migratory birds, for example).

Even though Democratic leaders in the Senate seem committed to the bill, they've already slowed debate on it once owing to populist complaints - and many Democratic senators who go home this weekend are going to hear a lot of yelling about it from their constituents.

This is one speeding train that could wreck itself easily. But let's say it doesn't. Let's say it passes the Senate. It must then pass the House. The House of Representatives may be an even tougher sell.

Remember that the Democrats won the House because independent voters fled the GOP. Every seat taken away from a Republican in 2006 will be in play in 2008. And polling data suggest that those self-same independent voters don't like what they're hearing about this bill.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi may not want to put her vulnerable freshmen in the unpleasant position of having to vote for a piece of legislation that might give Republican contenders an issue to target them with in 2008.

She may want to bottle the thing up in committee or allow so many amendments to be attached that it will be impossible for the Senate and House bills to go through the process called "reconciliation" (during which they are harmonized into a single bill).

This is what happens when a bill collapses. Since it's easier to see who benefits from its collapse and harder to see who benefits from its passage in the short term, that would be the safer bet at the moment.

And given the importance of the president keeping his focus on Iraq, the better bet.


http://www.nypost.com/seven/05252007/po ... horetz.htm

I just got a computer generated prerecorded call from Citizens for Comprehensive Immigration Reform giving a pitch to support Ted Kennedy and then connecting me to 202-224-2131.


I think that it is interesting they would think Ted would need to have further encouragement being on their side.

Currently parties..............


Democratic party
Independent party
Bush party

The GOP will collapse if this bill passes! This bill is driving a wedge between the Republican Party! If this bill passes it WILL be so demoralizing to the GOP that it will keep most of the party voters home in 2008! Not only that, but the exodus from the GOP to INDEPENDANT (which is already taking place) will be so great that whatever influence the Republican Party HAD, it would quickly become little to none.

Maybe we are witnessing the formation of a new united and powerful party as Repulicans and Democrats alike become Independants!? HMMMMM???

PRESIDENT Bush wants this new immigration bill. He wants it badly. He said yesterday that he ran both in 2000 and in 2004 as an immigration reformer and he's fulfilling his campaign promises.

I certainly don't recall hearing anything about legalizing 20+ million illegal immigrants!

"Audiogate": the mystery bulge

Frame grab from the 2004 presidential debate illustrating a mysterious bulge beneath George W. Bush's suit coat.Citing an unexplained bulge [3] in the back of his suit jacket, allegations in the media suggested that George W. Bush was wired with a hidden earpiece of sorts in order to receive coaching during the 2004 Presidential Debate. A number of blogs[4] began following this matter, speculating that the "bulge" could have been anything from an audio transmitter, medical device, or bulletproof vest.

When Salon first broke the news of these allegations, Bush campaign officials initially downplayed the bulge and questioned the authenticity of the photographs stating that they were likely doctored. This statement was retracted after television footage showed the same feature. A seller of surveillance equipment who looked at the images concluded, "There's certainly something on his back, and it appears to be electronic."[attribution needed]

In response to persistent questioning about the bulge, Bush campaign manager Ken Mehlman replied "The president is an alien. That's your quote of the day. He has been getting information from Mars." [5]

The maker of the suit, Georges de Paris, said that the bulge was simply a pucker in the fabric that became more visible when Bush crossed his arms and leaned forward. At least one doctor has concluded it was Bush's backbone. There also remains the distinct possibility Bush must communicate with the Secret Service in the event of an emergency.

President Bush stated in an interview with Charles Gibson on ABC's Good Morning America that the mystery bulge was "a poorly tailored shirt." He said there was no sound system or electrical signal.

Bob Fertik of Democrats.com claims that the President still secretly wears an earpiece, and that Karl Rove uses it to guide the President through public statements.[6] It has been noted that, while speaking publicly, Bush pauses irregularly in the midst of sentences, often while tilting his head to the right as if listening to something.video (scroll to 2:40 for example)

BUSH DID NOT RUN ON IMMIGRATION.................

With his father's help, Bush raised more money than any candidate for any office in Texas history. He ran on a four-point program: education, juvenile justice, tort reform and welfare reform. Other items on the Bush agenda passed the conservative litmus test: making it legal to carry concealed weapons, supporting laws against sodomy and backing the death penalty.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/specia ... h.new.html