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Thread: Breitbart post-debate poll: Clinton won 48/43

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  1. #1
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    Breitbart post-debate poll: Clinton won 48/43

    Breitbart post-debate poll: Clinton won 48/43

    POSTED AT 4:41 PM ON SEPTEMBER 27, 2016 BY ALLAHPUNDIT



    Credit Breitbart for conducting a scientific poll whose outcome would be in doubt instead of taking the easy route and posting a Drudge-style online poll widget. The latter are fine if all you want is a broad sense of what your own readers think; if you want to know what the country thinks, scientific is your only reliable option. It amazed me this morning to see how many Trumpers on social media were dismissing the overnight scientific polls by CNN and YouGovthat showed Clinton winning by pointing to Drudge-style widgets that have Trump romping 95/5 or whatever. A widget poll posted on a website doesn’t rely on a random sample. A site’s readership is self-selecting and in most cases will be skewed heavily by partisan ideology, race, sometimes age, sometimes gender. On top of that, it’s easy to game those polls by having other sites who are sympathetic to one candidate or the other link to the widget and encourage supporters to vote and run up the score. It’s like trying to gauge a candidate’s support based on crowd size at his rallies. That might tell you something about enthusiasm but it doesn’t tell you much about Election Day. If Breitbart had run a poll like that, given how pro-Trump their readership is, Trump’s margin might have been 98/2 or thereabouts but that wouldn’t tell you anything about national opinion. And Breitbart knows that, even if some of its allies don’t.

    So they commissioned their pollster, Gravis, to do a scientific poll. Result: Clinton won narrowly, 48/43, although Trump came out ahead on key questions.



    Only five percent of voters said their minds were changed by the debate, and of that number slightly more said they had switched to Trump than to Clinton. If all of that is true there should be virtually no changes in the polls next week due to the debate. On the other hand, YouGov had Clinton winning by a more comfortable margin:



    CNN had Clinton winning even more comfortably at 62/27(!), although their sample was D+15. A noteworthy result:



    That’s a bad outcome for a guy who needed to show last night that he was qualified, but it may be an artifact of the sample. Democrats split 12/87 on the question while Republicans split 84/14, near mirror images, while independents split 50/49. It’s pretty much a straight partisan divide. On the other hand, Clinton’s own numbers on this question are significantly better: She earns a 67/32 split, with even 38 percent of Republicans admitting that she’d be able to do the job.


    What does all of that mean? Nate Silver looked back at post-debate scientific polls and found that the candidate who was perceived to have won usually ended up with an election poll bounce the following week. If that’s true to form, Clinton could be leading again in tight states like Ohio and Colorado next week. On the other hand, Silver’s playing an expectations game that could come back to haunt Clinton: If her numbers fail to rise despite accord among various surveys that she won the debate, the left is going to have a nervous breakdown over the possibility that Trump is now essentially mistake-proof and that his momentum is likely to carry him to victory in November. In that sense a “tie” in next week’s polls is a win for him, leaving Hillary and the left to make a tough decision. Do they want to risk two more debates with Trump despite having gained nothing from a victory in the first one? You won’t see anything from Clinton in the next two that you didn’t see last night, but there’s always a chance you’ll see a disciplined, cogent Trump putting any remaining doubts about him to rest. He’s really got nothing to lose from further debates if he doesn’t take a hit from last night’s performance. Clinton does. Will she bail?

    http://hotair.com/archives/2016/09/2...tm_campaign=nl

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    Pat Caddell: Breitbart/Gravis Post-Debate Flash Poll Shows Hillary Clinton Won Slightly; Trump Gains ‘Plausibility’

    by Neil W. McCabe
    26 Sep 2016 Washington

    Democratic nominee for president Hillary Clinton edged her GOP rival Donald Trump in Monday’s presidential debate held at Hofstra University before a television audience estimated at 100 million viewers, according to a Breitbart/Gravis “flash poll” conducted minutes after the debate ended.

    Pat Caddell, the Democratic pollster and Fox News Insider, told Breitbart News that poll respondents said Clinton performed better at the debate; 48 percent said Clinton did a better job, compared to 43 percent, who said Trump did the better job.

    “However, 95 percent of the people we contacted told us they were not going to change their vote based on the debate,” Caddell said.

    Two percent of voters, previously undecided, switched to Trump after the debate. No undecideds went to Clinton. One percent switched from Trump to Clinton, and one percent switched from Clinton to Trump.

    “Trump won on the most critical factor, on whether Clinton or Trump was more ‘plausible’ as president, 46 percent to her 42 percent,” he said.

    “That for him is really what this debate was really about,” he said.

    Participants said they thought Clinton had a better grasp of the issues, by 48 percent to his 40 percent.

    “What really happened was she won on the issues and he won on plausibility,” Caddell said.

    “I was really surprised by this–because it is usually a question that plays well with Democrats–‘Who showed that they care about people like you?’ Trump won that 49 percent to 44 percent for her,” he said.

    In other questions, 49 percent said Trump was more honest and 42 percent said Clinton was more honest.

    Forty-eight percent of respondents said in the debate Trump showed he would be a strong leader, compared with 44 percent for Clinton.

    “With regards to expectations, 26 percent said Trump did better than they expected,” he said.

    “Clinton clearly did better than expected with 46 percent telling us that and only 20 percent telling us she did worse,” he said. “The point is that despite that, Trump actually benefited from the debate tonight.”

    Nobody knows more about the history of presidential debates or presidential debate polls than he does, he said.

    “Trump, as the challenger in this race, has a so-s0 performance against Clinton, but he gained what he needed,” he said.

    “Like most debates, this debate did not shift the race. What it did do was show Trump as plausible, as a strong leader and more importantly that he cares about people,” he said. “Trump really helped himself out tonight.”

    Caddell said he was very happy with the Brietbart/Gravis sample. “I am proud that we used a serious sample, unlike other outlets that were heavily skewed.”

    Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based polling firm that executed the poll, said, “Before the debate, we contacted 3,000 registered voters and 1,700 of them agreed to be part of our poll sample, we did not stop dialing until we reached 890 of them to ensure we had a strong sample.” The poll carries a 3.3 percent margin of error with a 95 percent level of confidence.

    The poll was executed with automated phone calls with results weighted to match a proprietary turnout model.

    http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presid...te-flash-poll/
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    I think Clinton will get a little bump after the debate, but it won't stick, because the reason some might go with Hillary for a spell is based on the depiction by Hillary and Lester that Trump is racist and sexist. Lester drove this false narrative with the birther and stop and frisk questions and then Hillary on the porn whore from Venezuela. Both racist questions are constitutional issues that Lester's position was simply wrong about.

    Every American voter should be a birther, because our Constitution requires it to ensure we demand candidates meet the conditions of eligibility, both to age and natural born citizenship that can only be verified by a birth certificate or an affidavit from witnesses and so forth, no different than what every 16 year old has to produce to obtain a driver's license. Most Americans believe to be eligible for President or Vice President you must be a natural born citizen which most of US believe requires born in the US to 2 US citizen parents (natural born or naturalized at time of birth).

    Stop and Frisk is constitutional. But like all things in our country, how you do something whether it's police stopping suspects or employers hiring workers, determines whether or not in the process of your task, whatever it is, you are conducting it in accordance with US civil rights laws. If a Judge determines that a Company is guilty of hiring discrimination, does that make hiring unconstitutional? No. Same thing with stop and frisk, just because NYPD got sloppy and expanded their use of stop of frisk to a point that was violating civil rights does not make stop and frisk unconstitutional, it makes the abuse of civil rights unconstitutional, the same as hiring discrimination.

    On the sexist issue of Machado and Hillary's charge that Trump calls women pigs and slobs, the only woman Trump has called that to my knowledge is Rosie O'Donnell after she attacked him to create a media feud to boost the ratings of The View. I think a reporter who wrote an article attacking him, he sent her a book and drew a dog face on her picture, much the way newspapers draw a clown face on him.

    These are not examples of sexism, because pigs, dogs and slobs all come in all sizes and genders.

    Our country's media and many of our politicians have sadly revealed an extreme stupidity with regards to our language.
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    Online Polls Show Overwhelming Winner Of First Presidential Debate

    by Jack Davis September 27, 2016 at 7:51am

    Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump was the hands-down winner of Monday’s presidential debate, according to online polls conducted by CNBC and Time magazine.

    Trump came out on top over Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton at 67 percent to 33 percent according to CNBC

    According to Time, Trump was the winner at 55 percent over Clinton’s 45 percent.

    “Trump won hands down,” commented Brian Earl on CNBC‘s poll. “Not in the debate itself but after. He did well in the first half of the debate, lost a little in the second half, but after it was over Hillary vacated so fast the camera man was running trying to keep up. Trump stayed with his wife and daughter and answered questions for a good 20 minutes. He also referenced a Clinton (ad) on the birther issue. CNN pulled up the Wolf (Blitzer) clip and proved she was (lying).”

    Others saw the candidates’ performance as a window to their character.

    (See hillary was given questions a week in advance -)
    http://www.alipac.us/f9/tomi-lahren-...ht-but-337842/


    “Hillary looked smug during the entire debate, and she has a fake smile,” commented Kendoaz. “I give her credit for not falling over and lasting 90 minutes. Hillary looked fake, had prepared lines and did good remembering them, but we don’t want fake we want the truth. I’m tired of politicians BS and Trump just delivers well. With Trump it looks like it comes from the heart, not a paid political junkie. I bet the next debate Trump will be on the attack more, he let her off the hook a few times.”

    Many viewers found there to be a heavy hand of bias in the debate.
    “Where was the discussion about illegal immigration? That’s the number 1 issue in the election. Where was the discussion about radical islamic terrorism? That’s the number 2 issue in the election. Hillary and the 3rd debater, Lester Holt, spent most of the time trying to play “gotcha” with Donald Trump,” commented Tom Johnson. “Holt tried to rebut Trump 41 times. He only followed up with Hilary 7 times. Hilary came across as a smug, pompous insider politician. Trump came across as a leader.”
    Others felt the media bias was present during the post-debate spin cycle.
    “What was pathetic was the spin room reporters of ABC, NBC and CBS immediately after the debate. My God those people have no shame and ran to tell us all how bad Trump did, how Trump failed, never saying any bad about Secretary Clinton’s performance. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised at anything the media does this cycle, but it was sickening to watch,” commented Rockerfeller.

    Fox News, in fact, noted that online polls showed Trump largely being cited as the winner, but the media analysis of the debate largely gave the victory to Clinton.
    Trump himself gave Clinton a grade of C+ for her performance.

    “I thought she was very bad in the first half when they were asking normal questions,” he said, “and when they were asking bad questions she did better.”

    Trump said he had planned to hit the Democratic nominee on her husband Bill Clinton’s infidelities but in the end could not bring himself to do so in front of their daughter, Chelsea Clinton. “See, I do have a heart,” he said.

    http://www.westernjournalism.com/onl...ential-debate/
    Last edited by artist; 09-28-2016 at 02:47 PM.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    Yes, everyone who respects the Truth and Fairness KNOWS Donald Trump won the debate, because there was no Truth or Fairness in the Hillary speeches during the Debate and none in the Debate set-up to begin with. Now we find out that NBC RIGGED THE DEBATE not only with Lester becoming part of the Debate, not only with the unfairness of his interjections against Trump, but also by providing Hillary with the debate questions a week in advance.
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    Hillary Clinton Received Debate Questions in Advance-Fiction!
    Summary of eRumor:
    Hillary Clinton was given a list of questions that would be asked during the first presidential debate at Hofstra University a week ahead of time.

    The Truth:
    False reports that Hillary Clinton was given debate questions in advance can be traced back to a 200-year-old newspaper that was recently revived to sling fake news.

    The Baltimore Gazette news site published the report immediately following the debate between Clinton and Donald Trump on September 27th. The story, which appeared under the headline, “Clinton Received Debate Questions Week Before Debate, According to Sources,” reports:

    Earlier last week an NBC intern was seen hand delivering a package to Clinton’s campaign headquarters, according to sources. The package was not given to secretarial staff, as would normally happen, but the intern was instead ushered into the personal office of Clinton campaign manager Robert Mook. Members of the Clinton press corps from several media organizations were in attendance at the time, and a reporter from Fox News recognized the intern, but said he was initially confused because the NBC intern was dressed like a Fed Ex employee.

    The reporter from Fox questioned campaign staff about the intern, but campaign staff at first claimed ignorance and then claimed that it was just a Fed Ex employee who had already left. No reporters present who had seen the intern dressed as a Fed Ex employee go into Mook’s office saw him leave by the same front entrance. The Fox reporter who recognized the intern also immediately looked outside of the campaign headquarters and noted that there were no Fed Ex vehicles parked outside.

    Clinton seemed to have scripted responses ready for every question she was asked at the first debate. She had facts and numbers memorized for specific questions that it is very doubtful she would have had without being furnished the questions beforehand. The entire mainstream media has specifically been trying to portray Trump as a racist and a poor candidate. By furnishing Clinton with the debate questions NBC certainly hoped to make Clinton appear much more knowledgeable and competent than Trump. And though it is unlikely that anyone will be able to conclusively prove that Clinton was given the debate questions, it seems both logical and likely.

    Baltimore Gazette states in its “About Us” section that it’s Baltimore’s “oldest news source and one of the longest running daily newspapers published in the United States” — but that description is intentionally misleading.

    In reality, the Baltimore Gazette had a 10-year from 1865-1875, records kept by the Library of Congress indicate.

    Someone recently revived the Gazette and has been publishing a mixture of real and fake local and national news stories that has left many readers confused.

    One example is a story about a man that stole Sudafed from a Walgreens on East Fayette Street in Baltimore — a story that sounds real enough, but isn’t. The story includes a description of the suspect and a phone number for readers to call with tips. However, Baltimore’s City Paper learned from police that that theft never occurred:
    BPD spokesman T.J. Smith says the story “doesn’t appear to be true” and notes that the phone number listed for anyone with information to contact is not affiliated with the department.

    It’s not clear who’s operating the site, but it’s safe to assume that it’s not a reliable source of news. That’s why we’re calling the rumor that Clinton received debate questions in advance “fiction.”

    https://www.truthorfiction.com/hilla...tions-advance/
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  7. #7
    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
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    Someone revived the Baltimore Gazette to spread fake news ...

    www.citypaper.com/.../bcpnews-someone-revived-the-baltimore-...

    Baltimore City Paper

    5 days ago - The Baltimore Gazette, a newspaper that existed very briefly just after the Civil War, has returned online as a site to spread fake news stories and other nonsense.
    One article in particular, "ATLANTA OFFICER KILLS BLACK WOMAN, INJURES CHILD, FOLLOWING BREASTFEEDING ARGUMENT ...
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  8. #8
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    Well, who in the heck is "truthorfiction.com"?? What makes their sleazy site any more credible than the Baltimore Gazette site? Who are they? What town or country are they in? Who funds them? They don't even have an "About Us" section on their website. No phone number, no address.

    To me, that's the pot calling the kettle black.

    They're probably both fake.
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    Clinton Received Debate Questions Week Before Debate : snopes.com

    www.snopes.com › Fact Check › Fake NewsSnopes.com

    1 day ago - A fake news story reported that Hillary Clinton was given her questions for the first presidential debate of 2016 a week in advance. ... Claim: Hillary Clinton received her questions for the first presidential debate of 2016 a week in advance. Origin:On 26 September 2016, Democratic ...
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    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    Oh yeah, "Snopes", the couple working out of their basement in Iowa.

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