A year before voting, a nation of discontent

Divided by the war and anxious about the future, Americans want some fixes

By Susan Page
USA TODAY

Call us the Unhappy States of America.

One year before Election Day 2008, most Americans are dismayed by the country's direction, pessimistic about the Iraq war and anxious about the economy. Two of three disapprove of the job President Bush is doing. Nearly a year after Democrats took control of Congress, three of four Americans say it isn't achieving much, either.

In all, 72% of those surveyed in a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Oct. 12-14 say they are dissatisfied with how things are going in the USA while just 26% are satisfied. Not since April have even one-third of Americans been happy with the country's course, the longest national funk in 15 years.

"Don't get me wrong, America's a great country," says Lori Jones, 46, a medical assistant in Phoenix. But she worries about her family's finances and prospects for the next generation. "I think we've somehow lost our way."

There's plenty of time for attitudes to change before the election, of course, but the current landscape is the sort that in the past has prompted political upheaval and third-party candidacies. The last time the national mood was so gloomy was in 1992, when the first President Bush was ousted from the White House and H. Ross Perot received the highest percentage of the vote of any third-party candidate in 80 years. Bill Clinton was elected amid economic angst.

And the likely impact of the downbeat mood on next year's election?

"I'd rather be the Democratic candidate," says Joel Aberbach, director of the Center for American Politics and Public Policy at UCLA. Democratic presidential contenders are tapping desire for change. Now 53% of Americans surveyed have a favorable view of the Democratic Party; just 38% have a favorable view of the GOP.

"It looks a lot like 1952," says David Mayhew, a political scientist at Yale and author of Electoral Realignments, though he cautions it's too early to predict election results. "The Korean War was very unpopular, the Truman administration was very unpopular, and people wanted to throw rocks at D.C." Democrats lost the White House and control of Congress that year.

Now, as then, a divisive war casts a shadow over the nation's mood.

Iraq dominates the political agenda. In the poll, four in 10 Americans volunteer that the Iraq war will be one of the most important issues determining their vote in 2008. That's more than twice as many who cite the second-ranking issue: health care.

Six in 10 call the invasion of Iraq a mistake, equal to the highest levels of anti-war feeling during the Vietnam conflict. Despite reports of progress after this year's rise in U.S. force levels, a majority say the situation in Iraq is getting worse for the United States. Only 16% say it's getting better.

In conversations at four locales across the nation — at a farmer's market in Salem, Ore., outside a public library in Phoenix, at a shopping mall and bus stop in downtown Milwaukee and in a roundtable at the New Jersey shore — Americans struggled over what to do next in Iraq.

Not one of several dozen people interviewed expressed optimism that the next president, whoever is elected, will be able to turn things around militarily or to extricate U.S. troops without significant complications, even chaos.

"The next person coming in, it's going to take him at least eight years to clean up," predicts Geraldine Buie, 49, a food-service worker in Milwaukee who wants U.S. troops withdrawn now.

"On the one hand, people say we should pull out, but if we just pull out, everything will collapse and we'll have done nothing," says Antonio Carlos, 24, a student in Phoenix. "We've been committed for six years. Are we going to give up already? But at the same time, do we have the money (to continue)? And do we want our people over there dying left and right?"

Not everyone has a dismal view of the future, of course.

"I think things are going along fine," said Tanya Rider, 32, a medic from Salem, though she worries about her brother and best friend, both deployed to Iraq. "The job market is going up. There's less homeless people." (The National Alliance to End Homelessness says the difficulty of counting homeless people makes it hard to assess whether their numbers are falling.)

Predictably, those who rate the economy as good are much happier with the country's direction than those who rate it as poor. Affluent Americans are more satisfied than those with lower incomes. Conservatives are more satisfied than liberals, and men more than women.

Even in the most optimistic demographic category, however, a majority is dissatisfied with the country's direction — including, for instance, 55% of Republicans. Among Democrats, the conclusion is almost universal: 84% say things are on the wrong track.

"The war in Iraq is clearly a major drag on the public's sense of how the country's doing," says Lawrence Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota. "And there's a kind of longer-term impact of the economy. Overall the economy is doing quite well but the sense of insecurity, the sense of anxiety of what the future might hold — that's having a downward effect."

Assessments of the current economy, while downbeat, are no worse than they were one year before the presidential elections in 1992, 1996 and 2004.

What's driving today's negative mood is pessimism about the future: Two-thirds predict economic conditions are getting worse, by far the highest number since 1992.

At a roundtable discussion in Neptune, N.J., only one of the 11 participants was looking for a job; the rest were retired or employed, most in jobs they like.

But Bob Cohen, 61, said he was "scared looking around the corner at the demographics of the country" and the pressure the looming retirement of the baby boom generation will put on Social Security.

Tish Ferguson, 48, a global recruiting manager, says she "works in a market where we're worried about a recession."

Eugene Kelsey, 82, expressed alarm about the impact of illegal immigration on American culture.

Americans are glummer about the economy than economists are. By the traditional measure — back-to-back quarters of economic contraction — the nation isn't in a recession. Yet more than one-third of those surveyed say it is. Four in 10 say a recession is likely during the next year.

For many Americans, good economic news about steady growth and low unemployment and inflation has been overshadowed by the rising cost of gasoline, turmoil in the housing market and uncertainties about health care coverage.

"I keep hearing there are positive indicators in the economy," says Dave Hendrick, 30, an Americorps volunteer in Milwaukee. "I have a hard time understanding that when I see skyrocketing foreclosure rates."

There are significant differences in views of the economy by region. The mood is brightest in the Southwest and the Rocky Mountain states, where 46% rated the economy as good in an aggregation of seven Gallup Polls taken since May.

The mood is darkest in the Great Lakes, where just 31% called the economy good. Jobs are a big reason as the region tries to recover from the loss of manufacturing plants. Michigan has the highest unemployment rate in the nation; Ohio the fifth highest.

People in the upper Midwest are "frustrated by the (national) debt, frustrated with the war, frustrated with the health care system that seems to be crumbling," says former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson, who in August abandoned a bid for the Republican presidential nomination. "They want somebody to get something done. They don't like to see problems shunted aside, and that's what they see in Washington."

Both the president and Congress get historically low ratings, another sign of unhappiness with the nation's course and indicator of possible political upheaval ahead.

Since World War II, no party has managed to hold the White House when the incumbent president had a job-approval rating below 45% one year before the election. Bush's approval rating now: 32%.

Congress fares even worse. Its approval rating in August dipped to 18%, equaling the low point in the history of Gallup. It's now bumped up to a still-dismal 29%.

Ethics scandals and opposition to the Iraq war contributed to a Democratic takeover of the House and Senate in last November's elections, but Congress' ratings haven't significantly improved since then. Dissatisfaction is widespread and bipartisan: 76% of those surveyed say Congress has accomplished "not too much" or "nothing at all" this year. Among those, 73% blame both parties equally.

While Democratic and Republican voters agree Congress isn't doing much, they have different priorities in mind for action.

The top issues for Democrats are the Iraq war and health care, but despite a change in leadership Congress has been unable to reverse Bush's course on Iraq or override a presidential veto of increased funding for a children's health care program. For Republicans, the leading issues include illegal immigration, also snarled in Congress.

When it comes to the presidential race, the nation's gloomy mood is boosting the Democrats.

Americans who are dissatisfied with the country's direction — nearly three-fourths of the population — are twice as likely to support a Democratic candidate. Those who are satisfied are twice as likely to support a Republican one.

Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, who leads the Republican field, is backed by one in four of those satisfied with the country's direction but only one in 10 of those who are dissatisfied. His overall support is divided roughly between the two sides.

Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton is backed by one-third of those dissatisfied with the country's direction. By a lopsided 5 to 1 ratio, her supporters are unhappy with how things are going.

History indicates that the downbeat mood is likely to present a persistent challenge for Bush's successor, whoever it is. Electing a new president, even from an opposition party, doesn't automatically lift the nation's spirits.

Satisfaction with the country's direction dipped to an all-time low of 12% in 1979, contributing to President Carter's defeat and Ronald Reagan's election the next year. But not until December 1984 did a majority of Americans express satisfaction again.

Similarly, satisfaction dropped to historic lows in 1992, contributing to the elder Bush's ouster and Bill Clinton's election. Not until January 1998 did the percentage of those satisfied top 50% again.

Ask what's going right in the USA, and New Jersey residents sitting around a table to talk about the country's direction have to stop and think. The group met one recent evening at the offices of the Asbury Park Press in Neptune, N.J. (The Press is owned by Gannett, as is USA TODAY.)

"Among young people, there is a tremendous amount of support for equality before the law, for tolerance," says George Zilbergeld, 66, a political scientist at Montclair State University.

"Since 9/11, we haven't had a terrorist attack on this country," says Eugene Kelsey, a retired restaurant owner from Freehold.

Ask what's going wrong, however, and everyone seems ready to speak at once.

The war. The gap between rich and poor. Political corruption. Only one person at the table raises a hand when the question is whether the next generation will have better lives than the current one — the classic promise of America.

"We have people doing very, very well and people doing very, very poorly," says Tom Loughran, 66, a data processor from Brick, N.J. "I would rather see the vast majority of the people … at least able to have a reasonable standard of living in the middle."

The others express little optimism that a new president can turn around the problems they see. Paula Cohen, 61, a human resources director for a nutrition company, says she is approaching the election with "trepidation."

"The divisiveness and the pettiness and the vitriol in our political culture" seems sure to continue after the election is over, says her husband, Bob Cohen.

"The next day," he predicts to general agreement, "the opposing party will start a campaign for the next presidential election."

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