The Quitters
Wed Jan 06, 2010 at 05:37:27 AM EST
Wow! Go to sleep extra early, and wake up to a whole new Senate.
Look down the posts and the comments: Dorgan and Dodd, gone. 11 Democratic House members. Open Senate seats in Delaware, Illinois, North Dakota, Connecticut, Ohio, Kansas, Missouri, Florida, and that list could change today. And let's not forget the special election for Senate in Massachusetts coming up: contrary to everyone else's polls, Rasmussen has Scott Brown only 9 points behind Martha Coakley. If Massachusetts sends a Republican to the Senate, ALL bets are off for 2010. The last time that state sent a Republican to the Senate was in 1972, and that was Edward Brooke, who doesn't even count as a "Republican": first because that party was very different back then, and second because he was unique and wouldn't find a place in today's GOP.
Pretty obviously, we're going to have to update the House and Senate forecasts, which we're working on and hope to have up within a week. (It takes longer than you might think.)
And let's not forget the people dropping out of the gubernatorial races, like Bill Ritter. A lot of governors' mansions can easily change this year: two prime examples are Pennsylvania and Texas.
The big questions are:
Why?
Who's next? Or is the season of quitting over?
Which direction will the replacements go?
Obviously, some people, like Dodd, are quitting because the chances of winning are slim, and another party member would have a better shot at holding the seat. It may also be that some House members want to try for the Senate, or for governor, or, like Bob Wexler, left/are leaving for a job in public service which interests them more than government service. Others may just have had enough of a polarized DC.
As for who is next, the list is too long to poll, so use the comments for those candidates you think will be next on the drop-out list. Or if you think the bleeding is done.
The biggest question, to me, is whether the Democrats who replace the drop-outs will be moderates or progressive. Personally, I hope that they are progressive. ACTUAL liberals. People who will gladly join the House Progressive Caucus, run their states as governors of, by and for the people, not the banks, and Senators who are not beholden to the insurance industry.
If progressives run, at all levels, on Act Blue money, and other direct-donor monies, it would really change the calculus of legislation. Think how different the health care battle would have been had none of the elected reps been beholden to the special interests.
And let's not forget the Independents. I'm not talking about the right wing wackos here. I'm talking about people like Lincoln Chafee who is running for Governor of Rhode Island. Chafee, like his dad before him, is a good man. While a fiscal conservative, his social policies are liberal. Had he switched parties in 2006, he'd still be in the Senate, and that move was considered. He'll have money troubles this year, but if he can overcome them, it would place a good, reasonable, man in contention. IMAGINE if for the open seats Republicans run far right candidates, Democrats run mushy-centrists, and Independents swoop in and take seats and mansions. A couple cycles and we would end up more like Europe, dependent on coalitions. The calculus is different if the Democratic Party runs actual progressives, and they run as populists. People who say "the party has not moved far enough on issues that matter most on a daily basis to Main Street."
While most people see the economy getting better, I see an unemployment rate still at 10% next November, and more importantly, next summer. Any candidate that can run on "a chicken in every pot, a good job in every household" will have a much better shot at an open seat than anyone else. Certainly more than the "pull yourself up by the boot straps" tea-baggers, more than mixed-bag independents.
And that is how I believe we turn the quitting season into a major win in November; run actual Democrats on an actual Democratic platform. NO MUD. There is no better way to overcome the enthusiasm gap, no better way to get voters to the polls.
If we don't do it, we're left with people like Danny Bauder, who is the Executive Director of the Chester County Democratic Committee (Pennsylvania). Yesterday, Danny personally endorsed Arlen Specter as having always delivered for Pennsylvania. He endorsed someone that we've voted against, as a party, for decades. Forget about the idea that a local party with a contested race should say "we will support and work for whichever Democrat wins the primary", forget that this is a personal endorsement, most people won't catch that nuance. If we don't support actual Democrats, we end up supporting Democrats who are either moderate Republicans in current Democratic clothing, like Specter, or beholden tools like Baucus, Nelson, Landrieu, Lincoln and the rest.
Again, no mud. We win in November as Democrats. If we can BE Democrats.
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