Friday, March 27, 2009
History in the Making
Today the DREAM Act was reintroduced in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, a sign that Washington is ready to move on the issue of immigration with the intention of bringing about real change, as promised.

The specifics of the act will be released after the government printing office has received the full text of the bill, but right now we do know that it is similar to the version of the bill which was defeated a few years ago after cloture could not be invoked.

Right now I would like to say that it is good to see that the sponsors of the bill are Senator Richard Durbin (D-IL) and Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN) in the Senate, and Representative Howard Berman (D-CA) in the House of Representatives.

Senators Kennedy (D-MA), Martinez (R-FL), Reid (D-NV), Leahy (D-VT), Lieberman (I-CT), and Feingold (D-WI) have all signed on as co-sponsors in the Senate. It is expected that Senators Kerry (D-MA), McCaskill (D-MO), McCain (R-AZ), and others might also sign on at some point in the near future.

In the House, co-sponsors include Representatives Roybal-Allard (D-CA), Polis (D-CO), Conyers (D-MI), Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-FL), Cao (R-LA), Nuñes (R-CA), Ross-Lehtinen (R-FL), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL) and Lofgran (D-CA).

Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Hoyer have not yet indicated their position on the bill, and some are concerned about their support because Majority Leader Hoyer has told some in the caucus that he would like to see this bill passed together with the Comprehensive Immigration Reform (CIR) legislation later this year. However, Speaker Pelosi has not yet indicated that she would be unwilling to consider this bill separate from CIR, and so many are hopeful.

Another good sign for the DREAM Act is the support from Senator Leahy and Representative Conyers. Both are Chairmen of their respective Judiciary Committee, and that will be important moving forward as the bill is considered in committee. The House version of the bill was referred to the Education Subcommittee, but Conyers' support no doubt has significant sway.

I will keep you updated as the specifics of the bill are released and as Senate and House Whip Counts are released to the public. The first mock-whip-count we have indicates the following level of support for S.729:

53 Yea
26 Nay
20 Undecided
1 Vacant

The undecided votes are as follows:

Senator Specter of Pennsylvania
Senator Hagan of North Carolina
Senator McCaskill of Missouri (she is undecided only because she hasn't clearly stated)
Senator Begich of Alaska (likely a yea)
Senator Conrad of North Dakota (voted nay last time)
Senator Hutchinson of Texas
Senator Graham of South Carolina (voted nay last time, but as McCain goes...)
Senator Murkowski of Alaska
Senator Pryor of Arkansas
Senator Voinovich of Ohio
Senator Gregg of New Hampshire
Senator Landrieu of Louisiana
Senator Grassley of Nebraska
Senator Lincoln of Arkansas
Senator Nelson of Nebraska
Senator Bennett of Utah
Senator Byrd of West Virginia
Senator Tester of Montana
Senator Baucus of Montana
Senator Dorgan of North Dakota

We need to pick up seven of these votes to pass the DREAM Act. The one vacant seat is Senator-Elect Franken of Minnesota, who would vote yes, pushing us to 54 votes in favor.

I think Senators Graham (R-SC), McCaskill (D-MO), Begich (D-AK), Bennett (R-UT), Voinovich (R-OH), and Nelson (D-NE) are most likely to come our way.

Tester, Baucus, Dorgan, and Conrad are almost certainly lost causes, since they are from states where immigration is a negatively-polled issue. Same goes for Hagan of North Carolina, both Senators from Arkansas, and Landrieu of Louisiana. Hutchinson may jump to our side if she thinks it will help her Gubernatorial bid in 2010.

We have a long way to go; a lot will depend on how well Senator Reid can hold the party together, how much sway Senator Kennedy holds, whether Senator McCain signs on as a co-sponsor, and whether the President decides to use the fact that his coattails proved so long in 2008 to force Senators like Bagich and Hagan to get in line. Another factor of importance is whether retiring Republicans such as Gregg, Voinovich, and (perhaps) Hutchinson, decide that they don't care about the Senate Republican Caucus' desires on the matter and break with the party. The same goes for Specter who might just want to piss off the party that is going to defeat him in a primary in 2010 by joining with a President and his party who won his state overwhelmingly...