Thread: Economy Update/Forecast

The economy is just starting to go downhill. Even when it recovers we will have to produce a lot more to get the same imports.

I liken it to this, for the past few decades we have been riding a bicycle downhill, but our ultimate destination is the same elevation we started from. The going has been easy and we havent had to work that hard for what we have. Now we are reaching the bottom of the hill. We have to start going up to move forward and its going to take a lot more effort from us to go the same distance.

Our trade deficit, national debt and national deficit are huge and our currently has been losing value (inflating), partly thanks to the Fed. How might this relate to immigration? Well for the immediate future I think jobs will be lost and immigrants will leave, but, after a few years, if we start to recover and produce something in this country other than houses and golf courses, jobs will come back in productive areas for export and we will have to be careful then because the demand for jobs may be high. What may help then is that everything will cost more still. So things may be just as good in mexico.

We've been getting a Free ride since the 1970's and its goint to end. I think tough times are ahead for many years.

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Presentation 1

Our (growing) trade deficit
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/e ... 1-2005.png

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Presentation 2
First the article, which because of these two paragraphs below I am surprised they published.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/30/news...ion=2008020609

"But here's why the trend is troublesome, and more so now than ever. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the rest of the world currently owns way more of America (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.) than America owns of the rest of the world, by a margin of $2.6 trillion (as of year-end 2006; a 2007 figure is due in July and will be larger). Net foreign ownership is increasing very rapidly; it has multiplied by a factor of five in just the past decade. As it grows, we must send more dividends and interest to foreign owners, giving them more money with which to buy more U.S. assets, earning more dividends, and so on.

This compounding effect is small when net foreign ownership is low, but at today's levels the effect is becoming significant and ever harder to reverse. Where it leads is grim: As a nation we eventually cease to be capitalists and become simply wage earners. As Warren Buffett put it in a prophetic Fortune article more than four years ago, a country that goes too far down this road can be "colonized by purchase rather than conquest."


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Presentation 3

Treasury Secretary Paulson, he says something honest "The worst is just beginning" but what I really noticed is how bad a speaker he is.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETQj3a221EQ

The only Presidential candidate to talk about this problem was...

Wait...

Wait...

Ron Paul!

Now wait a minute, our overseers continuously tell us that "immigrants" (including illegal ones) are great for our economy. Well since we have record numbers of "immigrants", shouldn't we have a record setting economy also? Then why is our dollar dropping like a rock? Why are so many Americans losing jobs, wages, and their houses?

This "stimulus package" they just passed is smoke and mirrors, it changes nothing.