Thread: Election Forecaster With A 98% Accuracy Record Predicts Big Gains For GOP This Year

Election Forecaster With A 98% Accuracy Record Predicts Big Gains For GOP This Year

By Brian Carey on January 7, 2014 Subscribe to Brian Carey's Feed@brianmcarey



Larry Sabato is a university professor of politics. He’s also the director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. On top of that, he has a history of forecasting elections. Over the past four election cycles, his accuracy record stands at 98%.

The good news is that he is predicting Republican gains this year.

Here’s what he writes in Politico this morning:

Another midterm election beckons, and over the next 10 months we’ll see headlines about a thousand supposedly critical developments—the “game changers” and the “tipping points.” But we all know there aren’t a thousand powerful drivers of the vote. I’d argue that three factors are paramount: the president, the economy and the election playing field. And, at least preliminarily, those three factors seem to be pointing toward Republican gains in both houses in the 2014 midterms.

Why is he so optimistic about Republican gains this year? There are three reasons.

First, the President’s approval ratings are low. That won’t help Democrats at all this November.

A bad economy could also help the GOP. However, Sabato notes, a good economy will not necessarily help the Democrats. Unlike Presidential elections, it seems as though mid-term elections are not referendums on the economy.

Finally, Sabato says that this year’s Senate slate strongly favors the Republicans. Remember, six years ago was when President Obama was elected to his first term in office. His coattails carried many Democrats into the Senate, including candidates like Al Franken and Mark Begich who should never have won their respective elections. As a result of that, Democrats are defending more vulnerable seats that Republicans are this year.

Happy days could soon be here again.

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Republicans, with the exception of a few like Ted Cruz and Rand Paul are worthless and don't deserve to be reelected.

The Chamber of Commerce OWNS the Republican Party.

Everyone knows its true ..

Real conservatives have big chances to gain seats in off election years because the fluff voters that vote blindly or based on mass marketing do not turn out. The people voting are more likely to really know what is happening in government and they vote for base conservatives like Congressman Walter Jones.

So conservatives do well in low turnout off election years. Also, the party opposite the President's party gains in off election years so Republicans have those two major factors going for them.

Thirdly, 2014 will be an off election year during the second term of an increasingly unpopular Democrat President.

These three factors combined with the intense issues of illegal immigration, healthcare, the bad economy and loss of jobs, and rampant spending and debt are creating a perfect storm.

W

Originally Posted by ALIPAC

Real conservatives have big chances to gain seats in off election years because the fluff voters that vote blindly or based on mass marketing do not turn out. The people voting are more likely to really know what is happening in government and they vote for base conservatives like Congressman Walter Jones.

W

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A 'Real Conservative' is a simple creature with simple principles - > "God, Country, Family."

In THAT order.

If there are any "Real Conservatives" left within the GOP who have not sold out to the current globalist, socialist, politically correct, nation-killing, power hungry 'Republican' regime can someone please point them out to me?

H2