Thread: Entrance Poll Shows Trump Winner Among Hispanics in Nevada

Wednesday, February 24, 2016 11:32 AM
By: Cathy Burke

Donald Trump won among Nevada's Hispanic voters, entrance poll data shows.

According to Fox News' entrance surveys of 25 precincts across the Silver State Tuesday, Trump had support from 45 percent of Hispanic voters. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio got 28 percent of the Hispanic vote and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz garnered 18 percent.

The Hill reports MSNBC's entrance polls had Trump winning 44 percent of Hispanic voters, topping Rubio's 29 percent and Cruz's 18 percent.

"You know what I am really happy about? I've been saying it for a long time: 46 percent with Hispanics, No 1. with Hispanics," the real estate billionaire said of the win early Wednesday, The Hill reports.

The political statistics analyzing website, FiveThirtyEight, cautions the sample size on the entrance data "is somewhere between 100 and 200 people."

"That means the margin of sampling error for the Hispanic subgroup is near +/- 10 percentage points (or even higher)," writers Nate Silver and Harry Enten write.

The site also reports 8 percent of Republican voters were Hispanic.

Previous polls have shown Trump lags in favorability among Hispanics nationally.

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/Entr.../24/id/715881/

That's a good thing, assuming they were all legal voters.

Many of the Hispanic voters in the general elections in Nevada, specifically in Clark County, are illegal aliens. However, they appear to be less likely to vote in GOP primaries there since they are caucus style.

W

I heard in the commentaries last night that Hispanics were around 10% of the voters, but still to get 45% of that vote shows he will win votes from all groups and can do well with all Americans in a General Election. I've always said that people who treat American Hispanics as some special lobby group that needs to be catered to or pandered to on a different level than all Americans was a mistake and at least in Nevada, Trump proved this to be correct. American Hispanics have the same needs, wants, desires and expectations as any other American. They do not support this massive immigration because it harms them, in fact it harms them more than most of US, because their jobs and small businesses along with the jobs and busineses of black Americans are the first to be taken by illegal aliens and new immigrants.

No Trump – you are not “number one with Hispanics” in Nevada

by David Damore, Latino Decisions Senior Analyst on 02/24/2016

Donald Trump won the Republican Nevada caucuses and in his victory speech Tuesday night he bragged about winning “the Hispanics” as he likes to say. He told his crowd of supporters “And you know what I’m really happy about? Number 1 with Hispanics!” However there are five very important points that have gotten lost in the media reporting of the Nevada entrance polls.

1. We are only talking about the very small percent of Nevada Latinos who are Republican today. An overwhelming majority of Nevada Latinos are Democrats. In a recent poll asking about party identification, 55% of Latinos said they were Democrats, 29% said Independents and just 16% said they were Republicans. Assuming the entrance poll is correct (a very big assumption) and Trump won 44% of Latino Republicans, that means he was supported by about 7% of Latinos in Nevada (44% of 16 = 7.04). What that mean is that most likely, 93% of Latinos in Nevada did not vote for Trump.



2. The entrance poll has a very, very small sample size of Latino Republicans, perhaps only 130, which means that even if everything else is perfect in its methodology, it carries a +/- 8.5% points on the Latino sample. Further, the Nevada entrance polls are not designed to get accurate subgroup vote share estimates, but rather report on statewide numbers, so their design is not trying to capture a representative sample of Latino Republicans, which adds some amount of unknown bias, beyond the +/- 8.5%

3. Latinos in Nevada have been consistently moving away from the Republican party. Recall that in the 2010 general election when Republican Sharon Angle embraced an anti-immigrant platform for her campaign she won only 8% of the Latino vote, to 90% for Harry Reid. In a detailed analysis of the demographics and political profile of Latinos in Nevada Brookings Mountain West summed it up this way:

In sum, based upon analysis of survey data from the 2012 election it appears that within Nevada’s Latino community there are few if any sub‐populations where the Republican Party has much traction. Much of the Republican Party’s struggles with Latino voters in Nevada stems from the inconsistency between the GOP’s policy agenda and the preferences of most Latino voters in the state and the perceived insensitivity of the 2012 Republican presidential nominee, Mitt Romney, towards the state’s Latino community.

4. Just looking at Latino participation in the Democratic and Republican caucuses, there were an estimated 16,500 Latinos who participated in the Democratic caucus and cast a Democratic ballot. On the Republican side it was about 6,000 and Trump came away with an estimated 2,600 Latino votes, or only 11% of all Latinos participants in the caucuses.

5. In a poll of Latino voters in general election battleground states (which included Nevada),impreMedia and Latino Decisions found that 80% of Latino voters said Trump’s statements about Mexicans and immigrants gave them a less favorable opinion of the GOP overall. This has been corroborated by Gallup’s monthly tracker and NBC polling, and reported by CNN in their headline “Latinos see Donald Trump as hurting GOP brand“and most recently by Political Science professor Lynn Vavreck writing for the New York Times Upshot who called him “damager-in-chief to the party reputation” among Latinos.

Sorry Donald, you are not #1 with Hispanics in Nevada.

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Dr. David Damore is a Senior Analyst at Latino Decisions. He is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, and a Senior Nonresident Fellow in the Brookings Institution’s Governance Studies Program. Damore has been cited as an expert on Latino voting by the Las Vegas Sun and L.A. Times, and identified by FiveThirtyEight as a lead Nevada expert.

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/...ics-in-nevada/

Trump didn't say he was number 1 in Nevada with Latinos. He said he was number 1 in the Republican Nevada Caucus with Hispanics because that's what the news and entrance polls said he was with 45% of the Caucus Voters.

Damore sounds snotty and jealous, not to mention dishonest in his premise. And what is this Latino Decisions anyway? According to their website it's about Latino Politics. Is that different than American Politics and American Decisions? Apparently so!

American Hispanics should back away from all these ethnic-specific entities that are promoting agendas that steal your jobs and businesses and either hand them over to illegal aliens and new immigrants or ship them out of the country under the banner of Free Trade Treason.

American Hispanics should back away from all these ethnic-specific entities that are promoting agendas that steal your jobs and businesses and either hand them over to illegal aliens and new immigrants or ship them out of the country under the banner of Free Trade Treason

Well said Judy!