Face it: Trump’s the true GOP favorite now
BY Jonathan Allen
NEW YORK DAILY NEWS
Sunday, December 20, 2015, 5:00 AM

There’s something the chattering classes along the Acela Corridor don’t want to say about Donald Trump: He’s the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican presidential nomination.

For the Republican Party’s conservative — in more ways than one — establishment, it’s as if admitting that will make it come true. So instead, they squabble over who the “real” front-runner is, whether it’s Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz. Perhaps, the parlor wisdom holds, a dark horse like Chris Christie can overtake the field at the New Hampshire turn.

For the first few months, the Trump deniers — loud on national television, insistent on Twitter and ever-present in the nation’s leading print and digital outlets — could be called wishful thinkers. With the primaries just around the corner, as many otherwise smart political analysts keep waiting, aching, for conventional order to be restored, it’s time to call them what they are: delusional.

Trump is leading national polls by more than 20 points in a field with more than a dozen candidates. Nor is this just a Rudy Giuliani-style lead that doesn’t translate to state contests.

He’s sitting on a double-digit lead in New Hampshire, holds a 20-point edge in South Carolina and runs 27 points ahead of his nearest competitor in Georgia. Though he’s probably going to lose Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucus to Cruz, who’s leading in the polls there, Trump could finish a strong second.

He’s first or near it in Nevada, Florida, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Missouri and Ohio. He’s in the lead in nearly every state that has been polled. All those leads have held up after a dozen predicted collapses.

To anyone looking honestly at the hard numbers, Trump’s lead in the Republican primary looks a lot like Hillary Clinton’s in the Democratic primary. And no one is debating who will “really win” on the Democratic side.

The early theories of Trump’s impending demise (some of which I once subscribed to) have, one by one, fallen apart: He’ll implode by offending someone, he’ll top out at 25% or the establishment vote will coalesce around Rubio or another candidate.

One of the few remaining wishful notions is that Trump will be pierced by losing Iowa and fade when supporters realize he’s not the winner he claims to be.

Could it happen? Sure. It’s within the realm of possibility that, after telling pollsters The Donald is the one, voters will pick other candidates when they go to the real polls. The anti-Trump vote could consolidate early enough to deny him plurality victories in winner-take-all primary states.

But both those scenarios get less and less likely with each passing week as Trump and his supporters see that the brass ring is really in reach.

The funniest, saddest theory out there is that Trump — who has been at this more than six months, shows no sign of tiring and clearly craves the limelight, and power — could get so bored of campaigning one day that he exits the race as abruptly as he took command of it. Yeah, and he could replace Tom Brady at quarterback in the Patriots’ first playoff game.

Instead of continuing to fool themselves, Republican pundits should school themselves in what is going on here. Like the last two Republicans who seized the White House from Democratic control, Trump paints in bold, bright colors. He exudes an almost impossible confidence. And he’s speaking directly to deep anxieties and resentments among GOP voters.

That has proven to be a potent combination among an anxious, Obama-weary electorate.

It’s understandable that Republican elites are mortified. A guy they can’t control is taking dead aim at many party orthodoxies, and profiting in the process. A few months ago, GOP insiders regarded a brokered convention as a nightmare. Now, to many, it’s more like a daydream.

Trump is currently far better positioned to win the nomination than any other candidate. GOP leaders, and the pundits who repeat their arguments, can dance around that fact all they want. But they can no longer credibly deny it.

http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/j...icle-1.2470833