Florida 2012 Republican primary: 5 takeaways

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is pictured in Tampa, Fla., on Jan. 31. | AP Photo

Mitt Romney’s camp is heading into general election mode after the win in Florida. | AP Photo
By MAGGIE HABERMAN | 2/1/12 1:01 AM EST

This time, Florida saved Mitt Romney.

After losing the state in 2008, the resurgent frontrunner rose off the mat from his South Carolina loss to rout Newt Gingrich Tuesday after a bloody battle.

Below are POLITICO’s five takeaways:

1. Mitt Romney is once again running two campaigns

Romney’s election night speech, in which he mentioned Newt Gingrich only to congratulate him, left no doubt that Team Mitt is now heading into general election mode after a commanding victory in Florida.

The focus was almost entirely on President Obama, who Romney excoriated repeatedly.

It marked a major shift from Romney’s South Carolina election night speech, in which he addressed his lopsided loss by giving Gingrich a tongue-lashing, albeit without naming him.

This time, Romney gave a forward-looking speech that talked about the party uniting after a bitter primary, and sounded tonally like his words following his New Hampshire victory.

To be sure, Romney’s team will not be lifting the collective boot from Gingrich’s neck — unlike after New Hampshire, when they let their focus drift to the general election and allowed the former House Speaker to get up off the mat. And therein lies a real conundrum for Romney, who has become so immersed in the negative attacks — and has seemed to enjoy them on the trail — that he has not been putting out a positive message of his own for voters.

Does Romney himself stop going quite so hard negative now that he’s won Florida? Or do voters like the feistier Mitt?

Either way, unlike four years ago, when Florida marked the end of Romney’s campaign, the state breathed fresh life into his campaign on Tuesday night. He heads into February with a massive warchest, two wins in four contests and an establishment that is hoping to bring the battle to a close.

2. February is uncharted territory

Newt Gingrich is not giving up. Neither is Rick Santorum. And Ron Paul is continuing with his delegate slog.

Yes, we have written some version of that after some of the past contests. But it remains true.

Gingrich, in the clearest and, despite his loss, strongest election night speech he’s given, has demonstrated he is serious about marching forward, no matter that the odds get longer after Florida.

And February will be the first month since voting started without a glut of debates. There isn’t one scheduled until Feb. 22, and before then comes some caucus campaigns that Gingrich is largely bypassing (he is heading to Nevada ostensibly for the caucuses, but just as likely to meet with Sheldon Adelson, the casino magnate and Gingrich benefactor).

It’s still not clear precisely what map Gingrich and Santorum will follow in the coming weeks, or how they will keep their names in the mix. Paul’s path is far clearer, as he makes bids in caucuses for which he’s spent months organizing.

Also unclear is how Gingrich will sustain the media coverage that has been the lifeblood of his underfunded effort, after Romney’s lopsided victory.

In the meantime, Romney will continue on with fundraisers and staged events, looking to outshine his underfunded competitors.

Gingrich needs a very solid showing in the Southern states that hold primaries on Super Tuesday. But how all this plays out until then — and how Romney addresses advertising in the Super Tuesday states — is an open question.

3. Conservatives are still resisting Romney


No matter how heavily he won certain portions of Florida, the restored frontrunner is still unable to lock down certain swaths of the GOP electorate.

Until he does, questions will remain about his ability to be the standard-bearer for a party that has roiled with populist rage for much of the last three years.

According to exit poll data, Romney lost “very conservative voters” — who made up 33 percent of the Florida voters — to Gingrich, 43 percent to 29 percent. While Romney won 51 percent to 32 percent among “somewhat conservative” voters, he lost evangelical voters to Gingrich, albeit by a small margin, 39 percent to 36 percent.

And 41 percent of those polled said Romney isn’t conservative enough.

This is why Gingrich has an opening to keep going, and why Santorum is hanging on in case the former House Speaker blows himself up again.

But Gingrich, who came in second in Florida and has been able to raise more money than Santorum, now has another few weeks to regroup and see if he can find a consistent message that will resonate with the base that vaulted him to first place in South Carolina.

Given the proportional delegate rules, roughly 95 percent of delegates is still left to be allocated in upcoming races — which could mean, as Gingrich has vowed, a long spring.

4. Hispanic voters gave Romney a boost

Despite Gingrich’s potential appeal with Florida’s Hispanic immigrants, it was Romney who won more than half of the crucial voting bloc’s support.

Romney’s strong showing came despite a somewhat cool initial reception at the Hispanic Leadership Network in Florida last week, and his language against “amnesty” during the Iowa caucuses.

Florida’s Hispanic community, heavily Cuban and Puerto Rican, tends to on specific issues that don’t always resonate widely outside Florida. But the vote tally is one that Romney’s camp will take heart in, given the role that Hispanic voters play as a swing bloc in a general election.

5. There is no ‘new normal’ for campaigns

Gingrich has focused on running a non-traditional campaign, as he’s put it, but certain time-honored rules still apply.

Which rules? Negative campaigning works. Ground games are important. And so is money.

Despite some public boasting by Team Romney about how they beat Gingrich back after South Carolina, the reality is that the tactics the campaign employed weren’t particularly novel — they aired a barrage of negative ads, they trotted out surrogates to make their case and rattle Gingrich, and they looked up opposition research on their rival.

All of those things require organization, and Romney is the only candidate who has one besides Paul, whose aims and campaign style are different. It’s also why Romney was able to bank a huge early vote lead in Florida, where the turnout in this primary declined by over 200,000 votes from last time.


Read more: Florida 2012 Republican primary: 5 takeaways - Maggie Haberman - POLITICO.com