Thread: Franklin Pierce-Herald Poll: Rivals need Iowa win to catch Trump, Sanders in N.H.

Franklin Pierce-Herald Poll: Rivals need Iowa win to catch Trump, Sanders in N.H.

Joe Battenfeld Sunday, January 31, 2016

GOP presidential challengers Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio and Democrat Hillary Clinton desperately need breakthroughs in Iowa tomorrow to overcome expanding leads held by Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire, a new Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll reveals.

Trump has a massive 25-point advantage over his nearest rival Cruz while Sanders has grown his lead over Clinton to a 57-37 percent margin , according to the poll of likely Granite State primary voters conducted Jan. 26-30.

Poll results:

Summary: Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll of Democratic voters

Tables: Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll of Democratic voters

Summary: Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll of Republican voters

Tables: Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll of Republican voters

A surprise in the Iowa caucuses tomorrow could still shake things up in New Hampshire’s Feb. 9 primary, especially on the GOP side, where 44 percent of voters say they could still change their minds. One-third of Trump supporters say they haven’t made a firm decision.

But a dramatic shift in the Democratic race appears less likely, with 78 percent of likely primary voters reporting they won’t change their minds. That makes Clinton’s hopes for another comeback an even bigger climb, even if she beats the upstart Vermont senator in Iowa.

Trump now gets 38 percent of the vote in New Hampshire — up from 33 percent a week ago — while Cruz has stalled at 13 percent, according to the poll of 439 likely GOP primary voters.

Rubio and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush are getting 10 percent, while Ohio Gov. John Kasich has dropped to fifth place at 8 percent, according to the poll. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, businesswoman Carly Fiorina and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul are winning just 5 percent support, the poll shows.

Trump’s popularity has remained steady in the Granite State, with 56 percent of GOP voters saying they hold a favorable view of the billionaire business mogul.

The poll also reveals that the much-publicized endorsement of Trump by former GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin has been no help. Six in 10 voters say Palin’s backing has had no effect on their decision, while 24 percent report it’s made them less likely to support Trump. Just 14 percent of voters say the endorsement made them more likely to back Trump.

The new Franklin Pierce-Herald poll shows Clinton has been unable to stop her stunning slide in New Hampshire despite her newly aggressive stance against Sanders. The Vermont senator’s 20-point lead is four points higher than the last Franklin Pierce-Herald poll conducted Jan. 20-24.

Just 72 percent of Granite State Democratic voters have a favorable view of Clinton, down 11 points since December, while 89 percent view Sanders favorably.

Despite Sanders’ popularity, 54 percent of likely Democratic voters in the new Franklin Pierce-Herald poll say they expect Clinton to be the nominee — though it’s down from a high of 74 percent in December.

With just 10 days left before New Hampshire voters go to the polls, a Clinton loss in Iowa could seal her fate in New Hampshire and hand her back-to-back losses in the crucial opening contests. In the last 40 years only one presidential candidate — Bill Clinton — has won the White House without winning Iowa or New Hampshire.

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_...ump_sanders_in

CLICK ON LINK FOR RESULTS AND GRAPHS

In New Hampshire:

Trump 38%

Cruz 13%

Rubio 10%

Bush 10%




IOWA TRUMP SUPPORTERS!! LETS DO THIS IN IOWA!! You can do it, you can beat the leads in New Hampshire. Make it First and Make it Huge!!

Trump now gets 38 percent of the vote in New Hampshire — up from 33 percent a week ago — while Cruz has stalled at 13 percent, according to the poll of 439 likely GOP primary voters.

Wow, a whopping "439 likely GOP primary voters."

CNN/WMUR poll: Trump, Sanders still up in New Hampshire

By Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Polling Director
Updated 6:30 PM ET, Sun January 31, 2016

Washington (CNN)Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump maintain wide leads in their respective primary races in New Hampshire, according to a new CNN/WMUR poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

On the Republican side, Trump continues to hold more than double the support of his nearest competitor, while the race for second and third place remains muddled: Just 6 points separate the second place candidate from the one in fifth place.

Overall, 30% of likely Republican primary voters back Trump, and behind him, the field vying for second includes Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 12%, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 11%, Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 9%, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 8% and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush with 6%.

Still, the sense of Trump's inevitability has grown, and two-thirds of likely GOP primary voters now say they expect the businessman to win the state's primary. No other candidate hits double-digits.

Republican primary voters in New Hampshire are less conservative than those in other early states. Just over half of New Hampshire GOP primary voters in 2012 and 2008 said they considered themselves conservative according to exit polls, well below the more than 8-in-10 who said so in Iowa and roughly 7-in-10 in South Carolina.

That larger group of moderate and liberal likely primary voters is less settled in its choices (35% say they've definitely decided, compared with 42% of conservatives), and less likely to back either of the two national front-runners - Trump and Cruz.

A majority of conservative likely voters say they support either Trump or Cruz, while the same two candidates combine for less than 30% of moderate or liberal primary voters. John Kasich lands in second place among the moderate or liberal group with 15%, Rubio has 11%, Christie 10% and Bush 9%.

Trump continues to top the list of candidates likely Republican primary voters say they would never support, 35% say so, including 47% of those moderate or liberal voters. Bush follows, with 12% saying they would never vote for the former Florida governor, including 19% of those on the conservative side.

In the Democratic race, Sanders continues to lead Hillary Clinton by a wide margin, 57% to 34% in the new poll. Those likely to vote in the Democratic primary are more apt than those on the GOP side to say they have made up their minds about whom to support (58% of likely Democratic voters say their choice is locked in vs. 39% of Republican likely voters).

Sanders holds an edge across nearly all demographic groups measured in the poll, though Clinton fares better among women than men, and she splits voters age 65 or older with Sanders about evenly, while trailing Sanders by a significant margin among younger voters.

And although a December CNN/WMUR poll found expectations then tilted Clinton's way, Sanders' streak of strong poll results appears to have changed that, with 54% of likely Democratic voters now saying they think Sanders will win the state's primary on Feb. 9, and just 31% now predicting a Clinton win.

The CNN/WMUR poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center by telephone from Jan. 27-30. The poll includes interviews with a random sample of 914 adult residents of New Hampshire, including 409 who say they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary and 347 who say they plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. For results among the sample of likely Republican primary voters, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points, it is 5.3 for results among likely Democratic voters.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/31/politi...ers/index.html

Originally Posted by MW

Wow, a whopping "439 likely GOP primary voters."

Gee MW, that's more than in the CNN/ORC New Hampshire Poll. So lets see, that would make it more accurate than the CNN Poll.

So who's laughing now?

Originally Posted by Judy

Gee MW, that's more than in the CNN/ORC New Hampshire Poll. So lets see, that would make it more accurate than the CNN Poll.

So who's laughing now?

Me, I'm still the one laughing.

I've often wondered why so many poll samples aren't much larger. How can one take any poll serious that does such small samples. For all we know a poll could have been taken outside the door of a ethanol convention in Iowa. Well, of course Trump would do better in such a sample because he supports subsidizing the ethanol industry. Oh, no need to get into the ethanol discussion again ..... just using it as an example.

Originally Posted by MW

Me, I'm still the one laughing.

I've often wondered why so many poll samples aren't much larger. How can one take any poll serious that does such small samples. For all we know a poll could have been taken outside the door of a ethanol convention in Iowa. Well, of course Trump would do better in such a sample because he supports subsidizing the ethanol industry. Oh, no need to get into the ethanol discussion again ..... just using it as an example.

In a small population state like New Hampshire, the 400 to 439 ir acceptable. When you do a larger state like Iowa, you need a larger sample, like 500 to 600. For the nation, you need an even larger sample, usually thousand or more.

There's statistical % of the market they use to create the sample. It's also part of the business model for the polling companies, the less call, the lower the cost, so if they can get by with a smaller sample without academically violating the %, then that's what most of them are going to do.

We'll start seeing how right or wrong they are in the coming hours and days ahead. Because my candidate is leading, I love the polls. If he weren't leading, I'd say, "oh what does a poll know, it's only the votes that matter."