Thread: The future ain't what it used to be

hernandotoday.com
By JOHN REINERS,
Hernando Today
Published: January 12, 2012

The hot topic today, particularly among the college educated class, is their conviction that the U.S. is no longer the land of opportunity.

This issue is broadly examined by experts under the label of "upward mobility," meaning the capacity one has for rising to a higher socio-economic level. Any analysis is rife with other related subjects; and similar to health care reform, it has so many moving parts it's hard to know where to start. Like everything else on the economic landscape nowadays, politics often comes into play.

Young people today see no light at the end of the tunnel. With the onslaught of the Great Recession, many younger people are growing up with the same feeling of pessimism about their future they had during the Great Depression. Back then, nobody had any grandiose ideas about a professional career.

They would have gladly settled for a trade or a factory job. In my family we didn't even know anybody who went to college. (This was before the New Deal, The Great Society with Title 1, student loans, and the whole panoply of social programs we have today that somebody else pays for either now with taxes, or with government debt.)

Two megatrends come to mind in 2012: First, this issue is most certainly non-partisan, and secondly, every expert who has examined this nagging concern has concluded that stunning advances in technology and the explosive growth of emerging markets have stripped away good-paying middle-class jobs from the U.S. economy.

One of the solutions often advanced is to reevaluate our educational system. But this is a bifurcated analysis between our K-12 and university systems. With this in mind we need to realize that by any objective rankings of universities globally, U.S. universities are conspicuously ranked in the top tier (9 out of the top 10 globally.)

This may be a partial reason for the second point. That is, that no other country can replicate the supportive environment in the U.S. for tech creativity which resulted from a virtual fusion of academics, risk-taking entrepreneurs, and creative American business people. Let me underscore this with Information Technology, (IT) which has been the formable job creator du jour.

Given the U.S.'s proven track record in higher education and the tech sector, and given the fact that all the growth is in emerging markets and China, this is an enormous market for future exports provided we keep leading the global competition in tech production.

And not to forget nanotechnology which will benefit every industrial sector and the health care field. It is for real and will be a job creator. Who would have believed that computer science in the 1960s and biotech in the 1980s would have matured into the job creators they became in the hands of entrepreneurs?

Bloomberg Businessweek reported in January 2012 that the field of nanotechnology seems to be "among the ripest areas for growth." They say, "The most successful entrepreneurs are those who don't follow the herd but anticipate the needs of the market earlier than the competition."

The U.S. needs to stay ahead of global competition. We need political leaders who value the private sector, because this is where the future is for our young people – not government jobs. We are not are not yet a bankrupt European social democracy. We need leaders who are not at war with private sector job creators, unlike our current leadership who value the private sector only as a source of tax revenues and targets for endless, costly regulation.

Pew's Economic Mobility Project has looked into this and observed that "one third of Americans raised in the middle class… fall out of the middle class as adults." This is an example of "downward mobility "and may point to failed educational and social policies.

The Pew report warns, "Marital status, [divorced or single mother] education, test scores and drug use have a strong influence on whether a middle-class child loses economic ground as an adult." This doesn't address the issue of those kids who are trapped in poverty for the same reasons. They never got to the middle class to begin with. One third of the U.S. is in a cycle of poverty.

Pew also points out that several European nations are doing better than we are with upward economic mobility because these nations "lack the U.S.'s population diversity, a factor that can boost inequality."

That's a polite way of criticizing our virtual open border immigration policies, which are unlike other first world countries whose policies are based on a merit or quota system. Studies show that upward mobility is directly related to parents' educational achievement. And here's a shocker: In the U.S., researchers concluded there is a stronger link between parents' education and children's upward socio-economic mobility, than any other country investigated. While the cause of this problem goes beyond immigration, any analysis must also point to our failed immigration policies.

The average Mexican has about 5 years education and can't even read or write in their native tongue... About 25 percent of all U.S. children are immigrants or the children of immigrants. This puts an enormous strain on our K-12 educational system, which will result in Americans who leave the system, unhappy with their socio-economic status, and who have little opportunity to get into the high-tech jobs.

For these poor souls, their future will be what it used to be for their parents. As adults, they will be looking to blame somebody for their inability to achieve economic success. We need more of our kids to achieve some level of technical skill in high school or elsewhere, so the U.S. can compete globally with countries that are achieving their educational goals.

Most Americans realize that our future success boils down to political and private sector leadership which must start with a new administration which excites and encourages those entrepreneurs who make products which can compete in the global economy.

The future can be better than it used to be. Charles Kettering, inventor, businessman, holder of 186 patents, and founder of Delco, who also became head of research for General Motors in 1920, wryly quipped, "My interest is in the future because I'm going to spend the rest of my life there."

The future ain't what it used to be | Hernando Today

Because there is no light. The new dark age is upon us and all the education in the world will not stop it or feed you.