Imagining Trump Going the Distance

By JOHN HARWOODJAN. 13, 2016

The term “Republican establishment” refers to people like Scott Reed. Those people have had a very confusing year.

Across four decades, Mr. Reed has worked for his generation’s signature Republican leaders: Ronald Reagan, Jack Kemp, George Bush, Bob Dole. Now at the United States Chamber of Commerce, he’s watching Donald J. Trump challenge everything he thought he knew about his party’s nominating process.

Republicans elevate their “next in line” mainstream leader. Straight from reality television, Mr. Trump has vaulted past big-state governors and senators.

The party has traditionally valued ideological orthodoxy. With Mr. Trump’s divergence from conservatives on health care, entitlement spending and the Iraq war, Mr. Reed said, “ideology is getting flushed down the toilet.”

Most important, Mr. Trump has upended the strategic dynamics of recent Republican contests — the dynamics that have led people like Mr. Reed to predict his defeat.

“The key to being nominated has been to be the last man standing against a totally unacceptable candidate,” Mr. Reed said.

By “totally unacceptable,” he meant an ideologically zealous challenger who could excite a disaffected chunk of primary voters, but not a majority.

That’s how Mr. Reed managed the successful bid by Mr. Dole, then Senate majority leader, for the 1996 Republican nomination. Next in line after losing the nomination eight years earlier, Mr. Dole confronted an array of rivals led by the fiery populist Patrick J. Buchanan.

Mr. Dole beat Mr. Buchanan in Iowa, then lost to him in New Hampshire. When trailing candidates faded thereafter for lack of momentum or money — the typical post-New Hampshire pattern — Mr. Dole cruised to lopsided victories. Mr. Buchanan failed to capture 40 percent of the primary vote anywhere.

In 2016, that formula for stopping Mr. Trump may not work. The chunk of Republicans embracing an angry message, Mr. Reed said, “is two to three times its average size.”

Consider the combined support for Mr. Trump, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, and the former neurosurgeon Ben Carson — all cast by conventional strategists for the “totally unacceptable” role. The three outsiders command two-thirds of Republican support nationally. “Establishment” favorites like Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and John R. Kasich remain political weaklings by comparison.

Currently, Mr. Cruz holds a small lead in Iowa, and Mr. Trump has a big one in New Hampshire and most everywhere else. One hope for their rivals: a long, destructive siege between the two that opens a path to victory for a third candidate, perhaps Mr. Rubio.

That hope fuels an intense competition to become the top “establishment” candidate in New Hampshire, even if that represents third place. No third-place New Hampshire finisher has won the Republican nomination.

But Mr. Reed has an increasing appreciation for Mr. Trump’s political ability. For all of his rhetorical fireworks, he has driven home his simple vow to “make America great again.”

Mr. Trump “is the most on-message candidate of this cycle, by a factor of 10,” Mr. Reed said.

He believes that at least half of Iowa and New Hampshire voters haven’t firmly made up their minds. That preserves an element of unpredictability three weeks before voting begins on Feb. 1 in Iowa.

Yet if Mr. Cruz holds his lead there, Mr. Reed sees the nomination race turning on Mr. Trump’s response before New Hampshire votes on Feb. 9. The self-proclaimed “winner” will have lost. The broad national terrain of 2015 will become a narrow, one-week battlefield on which “you have to win every day.”

“Can Donald handle losing,” Mr. Reed asked, “or does he flame out?”

He considers Mr. Trump’s resilience in recent weeks a positive sign. Under increasing pressure from Mr. Cruz, Mr. Trump seized the headlines again by simultaneously questioning the Canada-born senator’s eligibility for the presidency and hitting Hillary Clinton over her husband’s personal scandals.

His skills at political jujitsu “are remarkable,” Mr. Reed concluded. For the first time, he now believes Mr. Trump can win the Republican nomination.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/13/us...-distance.html