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The Probability of Immigration Reform: Less than Zero

Phoenix (By Jon Garrido, Hispanic News) September 18, 2005 - Within my circle of business acquaintances, advocacy partners, other acquaintances and the hundreds of shoppers I have come to know at the Mesa Food City grocery store where I have shopped nearly daily for the last two years, the talk is not if, but when.

The reality of the situation: the probability of immigration reform is for all practical purposes - dead in the water. Less than zero.

All due to a woman passing in the night.

Not la Llorona who instilled our childhood with fear but another woman who came to visit us in the night with her merciless plundering much like destruction by the Lord's hand made desolate waste of Sodom Gomorrah never to recover it's sinful way of disobeying the Lord, our God.

Everyone called it a disaster of biblical proportions. She created havoc, fear, pain, suffering and most sorrowfully, she instilled: despair.

All done by a woman named: Katrina.

Katrina not only wrecked havoc on the city of New Orleans but brought to a halt all plans and hope for millions of undocumented Hispanics pursing the American dream. The end to the pursuit of American citizenship and that most sought treasure that makes all possible - a valid social security card. The list of wants and needs that could have been made possible only through immigration reform.

To those who live near the corner of Mesa Drive and Southern, Katrina was something happening a million miles away and to other people.

In another country like Iraq, maybe on the moon, but nothing to do with our neighborhood. All believe the impact will never be felt in the Mesa Drive and Southern neighborhoods made up of approximately forty percent undocumented residents plus another forty percent of the area being American Hispanics who provide care, shelter and food to a undocumented relative or undocumented friend of the family.

This Sunday morning is the same as any previous Sunday. Today, life continues as it did yesterday, last week, last month, last year with the only hope that comes not from reading Hispanic News, the Arizona Republic, the New York Times, the Washington Post or even listening to countess Spanish speaking radio stations blaring Luis Miguel's "México, está en el corazón."

The message will come from "word of mouth" softly passing through neighborhood by neighborhood.

The message every one is waiting for will not come of approved immigration reform. The message will come of immigration reform slipping away more so with each passing day. Immigration reform sinking slowing like the Titanic sunk by the iceberg named Katrina.

Why they will ask?

Many will not understand the answer much less accept it. More will seek solace praying to our "Lady of Guadalupe" but it appears, she too is turning her back on the undocumented.

Immigration reform was always like paddling upstream against the current of anti-Hispanic sentiment. Countering anti-Hispanic mandates by advocating immigration reform, strategies have been formulated and countless meetings have been held by caregivers. With so much energy expended by immigration reform advocates, many of whom think their efforts will bring reform this year, immigration reform is just one more meeting away. Well maybe, two. Not more than three at the most.

All worthy and noble ventures but lacking in reality.

The improbable passage of immigration reform has always been daunted by the lack of a voting constituency.

The American way of life. An ideal to subscribe to for it makes possible achieving the American Dream by the principal America was founded on: the principal of one-man one vote. This great principal in actuality is a double edge sword with two sharp edges for it is this principal, one and the same, that stymies advancement of immigration reform.

The balance between those who live in the Camelback corridor who want to limit building heights and the planners who want to lift height restrictions will be tempered by the Phoenix City Council knowing full well the wrath of voters can turn a city on its head.

This is the one man, one vote principal which along with the rule of law are the two most important tenets that keep America on the right path.

The Camelback corridor residents make up a voting constituency and because of this principal, their rights will never be tampered on.

If only the documented had use of the one man, one vote principal. Herein lies the paradox. La mosca en los frijoles.

The undocumented do not vote.

They are not part of any voting constituency. Even the most likely ally, American Hispanics place the needs of the undocumented at the bottom of their list of priorities. Too quickly, American Hispanics have come to accept the same priorities as all other Americans.

Unfortunately, lack of foresight causes American Hispanics to cut off their noses to spite their faces. What enables American Hispanics to give low priority to the undocumented is essentially our fault.

The fault comes from a leaderless American Hispanic community. The ideal scenario would be to find a leader that would educate American Hispanics on this basic premise: To achieve parity in America's society requires a significant increase in American Hispanics who can vote. This is the only avenue that will bring about institutional change. We are upwards of 14% of the American population but only 6% voted in the 2004 election. Yet this dismal number of voters still brought attention to the needs of all American Hispanics. How much more so would 10%, then 20% and so forth bring?

In Arizona, we comprise upwards of 30% of the population but we are outgunned at nearly every Arizona election. Witness the City of Phoenix election this week. A courageous effort by a Hispanic woman to campaign for city office. Courageous for daring, but oh, what a misguided campaign. To have a priority be the environment in seeking to represent South Phoenix is one of the most amateur campaign strategies ever witnessed. Sometimes, we die at our own hand.

With the right advisors and a campaign managed by experienced political savvy Hispanic individuals, this woman will some day be elected to the Phoenix city council. I for one think she has great potential.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs are always nearly as important as no increase in taxes. Next time around, these issues need to be honed by this woman to win.

As bad as the campaign strategy was in this past week's Phoenix election was the unforgettable campaign in the last gubernatorial primary election. An opportunity wasted that could have resulted in electing a governor who not only would have been much better than the present situation but would have given Arizona prominence in this nation's Hispanic leadership.

The Hispanic herd mentality of giving support to a non Hispanic candidate has got to come to an end. This is a never win situation. Witness the Hispanic support given to elect the mayor of Phoenix only to be betrayed when the mayor endorsed the present county attorney. This single act shows the true colors of the Phoenix mayor better than if his confessor had violated his vow of silence to tell the whole world what was confessed. (I have no idea what religion the mayor believes in but you get the point.)

Someday someone has to create a Hispanic consultant campaign organization that takes charge of running campaigns.

There is so much for us to learn and gain if we could only find ourselves an "Antonio Villaraigosa."

Even if this were possible, the misguided perception of most Arizonans has to be re-directed.

To compound the plight of the undocumented, the one man, one vote principal provides the means to impose its will on the perception the undocumented have entered America illegally and are draining America's resources.

This is perception, not fact, for it can be documented and argued the undocumented bring value by their existence in America.

The principal of one man, one vote is the keystone to our Republic but regretfully, the one man, one vote "herd of buffalo mentality" runs in the direction dictated by fervor, astute marketing, and the wrong perception the undocumented are un-deserving with the underlying root cause being - fear of change. Fear of the loss of the status quo.

Yet, the herd mentality visibly portrayed by stampeding buffalo provides an opportunity and challenge. Can the herd be made to turn in another direction?

Yes, but only by a savvy Hispanic leader.

Next year as part of the 2006 elections, Arizonans need to be educated on the positive contributions that have been made in Arizona going back to the early Hispanic excursions in the 1500s to the present.

Hispanics have always been contributors, not takers in Arizona's history. As great as these contributions have been, they are infitismal compared to the contributions, American Hispanics are going to make in Arizona in the future.

Arizona and the Gulf Coast are at opposite ends of the spectrum. The Gulf Coast needs the President of the United States to put restoration in a pretty box and tie a ribbon for show.

Arizona does not need Bush. Arizona Hispanics will rise to the occasion to achieve parity in all Arizona categories.

Bush vowed to rebuild the Gulf Coast with the goal of wiping out the legacy of racial discrimination and social inequality that has compounded poverty there but has refused to put a price tag on the reconstruction plan, although members of Congress and others have predicted that it could cost as much as $300 billion.

The final accounting could approach more than $300 billion spent in four years to fight in Afghanistan and Iraq.

One day after pledging to rebuild the Gulf Coast, President Bush served notice rebuilding the Gulf Coast will require spending cuts elsewhere in the federal budget.

Doublespeak for: Katrina trumps immigration reform!

The first to go will be the program with the least constituency - immigration reform. All of the above: Gulf restoration, Iraq, Medicare, Medicaid, education reform, and of course, the annual "Pork BBQ Festival," all have a core of constituents that vote. All will defend programs and issues with votes at the expense of immigration reform. Even in a perfect world, immigration reform would be nearly impossible. This is not a perfect world.

Disagreements in what direction immigration reform should take have been played out daily with prevalent distortions determining direction of the herd.

The disagreements are not on principle. Rather they are reached by those who have assumed, with the help of news media such as CNN's Lou Dobbs and leadership positions such as Congressman Tom Tancredo and Arizona's J.D. Hayworth (It is impossible to be an Hispanic Republican in Arizona), strong enforcement at the border would be the only viable solution. They have become spokespersons against illegal immigrants and the U.S. government, particularly against President Bush, with accusations of aiding and abetting or otherwise doing nothing to protect our nation from the "hordes of barbarians' storming our borders.

These groups insist they are not anti-immigration but rather anti-illegal immigration; they are not racist but rather patriots seeking to protect the nation.

There is hollowness to their rhetoric in while "being for immigration," they refuse to discuss immigration reform with which to provide legal access to new immigrants. They instead insist before any reform can be discussed, all illegal immigrants must be deported and the U.S. - Mexican border completely sealed to prevent any further intrusions. There is an assumption that doing all of this is as simple as saying it.

However, other than making accusations, these people make no proposals on exactly how this is to be done or what human resources will be needed, what is the price tag for the undertaking and succeeding in these endeavors, and whether the nation can afford it.

Fortunately, light is now shed on the subject by the Center for American Progress' recently released, "Deporting the Undocumented: A cost Assessment" for discussion and analysis of a policy designed to deport all undocumented persons, currently around 10 million in the United States, and the cost of reducing the flow (illegal entries) to zero over a five-year period.

The report estimates, "the cost of a mass deportation effort to be at least $206 billion over five years ($41.2-billion annually)."

The cost analysis assumes that "20 percent of the undocumented population will self-deport and leave voluntarily" due to the government crackdown. If this does not happen, the costs can take a dramatic increase by as much as another $20 to $30 billion.

Today, there are close to 11,000 Border Patrol agents and approximately 2,200 interior enforcement agents. They are part of the present $19.3 billion budget for border and transportation security.

In fact, the entire Department of Homeland Security budget this year is $34.2 billion, which includes the above mentioned $19.3 billion, far short of the $41.2 billion needed for the deportation undertaking alone.

Should funds from national security programs be diverted to a deportation program? Or what other non-national security critical programs can be curtailed or eliminated to provide the needed funds? Or, should taxes be increased to cover the needed $42.2 billion per year to get the job done?

Then the 2006 elections are just around the corner.

The critical question begging debate: Can the United States afford rebuilding New Orleans along with the Gulf Coast and provide for homeland security, the war in Iraq, Social Security reform, Medicaid reform, Medicare's prescription drugs, education and on top of all, provide the needed funds for immigration reform?

The one man, one vote provides the answer. Once again, the undocumented do not vote.

Will America do the right thing? Will the egalitarian society be achieved by providing for those most in need - the weakest members of our society?

The ones who have no vote?

In Arizona, we do not have a Bush nor do we want him but a President of the United States has unbelievable power. Bush is going to resurrect the Gulf Coast, but here in Arizona, it will be Hispanics who are going to change Arizona.

We have a fiduciary responsibility to provide for anyone in need as one kindred spirit helping another but there is something more important at work here, a spiritual cultural bond that Hispanics have for one another. It is written, "Tenemos las mismas raíces." Some of us were born here. Others were not but we are all still members of the same family.

It is only as family that Hispanics will overcome all obstacles. Not within our own immediate family boundaries but the boundaries that include all Hispanics in Phoenix bonded to represent our self interests. When we place our trust in others to defend us, to advocate for us, to represent us, is when we always fall short of achieving parity.

The old system of inclusion of non Hispanics has simply not worked. The time has come for us to demand our equal share of the American dream. Anything short of parity is not acceptable and presently we receive only a token share of the pie. No visual graphic states so clearly than of $6.5 billion in annual Arizona State procurement, Hispanics receive 2.5%. Parity is 30%. You do the math. Unless we take steps to rectify this, then we will always be taken for granted as we vote for non Hispanics.

What Bush is going to try to do for the Gulf Coast, Arizona Hispanics will do for Arizona.

We need to find the "herd turner" to change the direction of the herd and lead us in the right direction. The right direction is due north for this is where parity can be found.

"Parity" will be our mantra, our motto, eventually, our legacy.

This will be the reward for our success. Increased public office representation and business opportunities; today, not 10 years from now.

Today is for us. Tomorrow is for our children and to all future generations of Arizona Hispanics.

Someday, racial discrimination and social inequality in Arizona will no longer be remembered. Parity will make all possible.

¡La llave es la igualdad!

Jon Garrido

480 860 8600

JG@Hispanic.cc



Coming: A Hispanic News Report. A History of Hispanic Contributions to Arizona,










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I believe this is the guy Lou Dobbs said was behind the movement to get him fired from CNN.

The guy refused to be interviewed. Wonder why

Lou doesn't seem too worried by the way.