Thread: IBD/TIPP Poll Trump Holds 2% Lead

Trump Holds 2-Point Lead Over Clinton As Election Day Arrives: Final IBD-TIPP Poll Results

JOHN MERLINE
4:04 AM ET

As voters go to the actual polls to cast their ballots in what has been an unprecedented presidential election, Republican Donald Trump held onto a 2-point lead over his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton — 45% to 43% — in a four-way matchup, according to the final IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll. Libertarian Gary Johnson captures 8% support from likely voters, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 2%.

In a two-way matchup, Clinton leads Trump by 1 point — 43% to 42%.

Unrounded, the numbers are: Trump 45.0%, Clinton 43.4%, Johnson 7.6%, and Stein 2.0% — which means Trump has a lead of 1.6 points. The final IBD/TIPP poll showed an interesting gain in support for Johnson, who climbed from just shy of 4% four days ago.

"As we complete the final days of the tracking poll, we see both Republicans and independents with relatively greater enthusiasm compared to Democrats. The registration advantage Democrats typically have will likely be neutralized by increased enthusiasm by Republicans, which is similar to 2004, when the voters split 37% Democrats and 37% Republican on Election Day. When it comes to candidate support, party-line vote will likely cancel each other," said Raghavan Mayur, President of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts the IBD/TIPP poll. "We also expect independent turnout to be robust and significantly higher than in recent elections, and Trump has an 8-point advantage over Clinton among these voters."

See Complete Day-By-Day IBD/TIPP Presidential Election Tracking Poll Results

The final poll included 1,107 likely voters, and is based on weighted results of 361 Democrats, 333 Republicans, and 381 people who identify as independents or other. The final poll, which has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, was conducted from Nov. 4 through Nov. 7.

The poll shows Clinton doing better among women (44% to 40%), minorities (64% to 13%), urban voters (56% to 25%), the nonreligious (55% to 22%), and union households (48% to 41%).

Trump does better among men (46% to 38%), whites (51% to 34%), investors (48% to 42%), rural voters (58% to 29%) and those who describe themselves as working class (43% to 42%) or lower-class households (41% to 30%).

Trump also does better among independents (39% to 31%), with Johnson capturing a strong 16% of this group's support.

The IBD/TIPP final results are in sharp contrast to other national polls, all of which show Clinton in the lead by 3 or more points in a four-way matchup. The Real Clear Politics average of the most recent of these polls has Clinton up 3.3 points. In a two-way race, the average has Clinton up by 3 points.

Trump and Clinton crisscrossed the country making their final appeals to voters. In Grand Rapids, Mich., on Tuesday morning, Trump told a rally that "Today is our independence day. Today the American working class is going to strike back."

Clinton cast herself as a unifier. "We choose to believe in a hopeful, inclusive, big-hearted America," she said. "I'm betting that tomorrow you will reject fear and you will choose hope."

A Challenging Election for Pollsters

It's important to note that these poll results are not a prediction of who will win the election. At less than 2 points, Trump's lead remains within the poll's +/- 3.1-point margin of error. Over the course of the IBD/TIPP tracking poll, the lead has changed hands twice, and the race was tied for nearly a week. (You can see that on the complete day-to-day results of the tracking poll.)

Other factors, such as who wins key battleground states, can also affect the election's outcome, despite popular vote totals.

This is also an unprecedented election for multiple reasons. Both candidates suffer historically high negative ratings. There are two third-party candidates on the ballot nationwide. This is the first election to include a female presidential candidate in either major party, not to mention an untested, controversial celebrity businessman.

The race has also been unusually negative, with Trump portraying Clinton as a criminal and Clinton describing Trump as a bigot who is unfit for the presidency. The media have been openly hostile to Trump's candidacy, as well.

Also, Clinton has been besieged by scandal the entire campaign. Even while the FBI has put aside its investigation into her use of an unsecured private email server while Secretary of State, it continues to investigate possible financial crimes and influence peddling at the Clinton Foundation.

Trump is also running as a populist candidate, which could impact who shows up to vote. Most polls that showed the "leave" side losing on the UK's "Brexit" vote missed the populist surge that tipped the scales.

http://www.investors.com/politics/tr...-poll-results/

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