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02-04-2008, 02:13 PM #1
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Comments on Delegate Breakdown (expanded from Malkin)
Here's a few notes on how the overall delegate count might shape up after tomorrow - (all this, IMHO, based on the info I have available to me at this time...)
Current totals (2/3/08 - approximate, from memory...)
McCain: 93
Romney: 72
Huckster: 28
Paul: 6
==============
"Leaning McPain" - (Winner-Takes-All States)
NY: 101
MO: 58
AZ: 53
NJ: 52
CT: 30
DE: 18
-------
312 + 93 = 405
"Leaning Romney" (Winner-Takes-All States)
UT: 36
MT: 25
MA: 41
----------
102
Leaning Romney (Not Winner-Takes-All though)
(+CA): 173
(+GA): 72
----------
245* (<- This is the real critical assumption for Romney)
----------------
Up-for-grabs (Not Winner-Takes-All)
IL: 70 (30/30; 10)
TN: 55 (20/20; 15)
AL: 48 (18/18; 12)
CO: 46 (20/20; 6)
MN: 40 (18/18; 4)
OK: 41 (15/15; 11)
WV: 30 (12/12; 6)
AK: 29 (13/13; 3)
ND: 26 (12/12; 2)
================
Assume an even near-50/50 split for Romney/McPain + some going to Huck, Paul - (Approx. estimates ONLY here...):
Romney: 158 / 158 McPain: (Combined Other: 69 )
=====================================
Combining Above totals for 'final' estimate:
McPain: 405 + 159 ->564
Romney: 72 + 102 + 159 + *245 -> 578
Summaries / Notes / Comments:
1. *IF* Romney is able to get all or nearly all delegates from CA and GA, he will likely take the lead from McPain after tomorrow (he is definitely battling uphill in such an assumption admittedly - it is not a likely outcome in all honesty)
2. The delegates won by Huckabee and Paul become important because it is possible their combined total is enough (if allocated to Romney) to sway lead from McPain to Romney if done in the near future (also, not likely however) although it depends on Romney's relative total of course too.
3. Even *IF* Romney trails in delegate count after Tuesday, it still is not a 'done deal' for McPain. Many of the remaining states to vote, although smaller, are more conservative overall than most of the ones (especially the larger ones) that will vote on Tuesday. Romney will stand to make up ground in those states later. This would be especially true if Huckabee drops out and Romney were to both gain his allotted delegates and siphon off more conservative votes from those that would have voted for Huckabee.
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