Thread: Comments on Delegate Breakdown (expanded from Malkin)

Here's a few notes on how the overall delegate count might shape up after tomorrow - (all this, IMHO, based on the info I have available to me at this time...)


Current totals (2/3/08 - approximate, from memory...)

McCain: 93
Romney: 72
Huckster: 28
Paul: 6

==============

"Leaning McPain" - (Winner-Takes-All States)
NY: 101
MO: 58
AZ: 53
NJ: 52
CT: 30
DE: 18
-------
312 + 93 = 405

"Leaning Romney" (Winner-Takes-All States)
UT: 36
MT: 25
MA: 41
----------
102

Leaning Romney (Not Winner-Takes-All though)
(+CA): 173
(+GA): 72
----------
245* (<- This is the real critical assumption for Romney)

----------------

Up-for-grabs (Not Winner-Takes-All)
IL: 70 (30/30; 10)
TN: 55 (20/20; 15)
AL: 48 (18/18; 12)
CO: 46 (20/20; 6)
MN: 40 (18/18; 4)
OK: 41 (15/15; 11)
WV: 30 (12/12; 6)
AK: 29 (13/13; 3)
ND: 26 (12/12; 2)
================
Assume an even near-50/50 split for Romney/McPain + some going to Huck, Paul - (Approx. estimates ONLY here...):

Romney: 158 / 158 McPain: (Combined Other: 69 )


=====================================

Combining Above totals for 'final' estimate:

McPain: 405 + 159 ->564
Romney: 72 + 102 + 159 + *245 -> 578


Summaries / Notes / Comments:

1. *IF* Romney is able to get all or nearly all delegates from CA and GA, he will likely take the lead from McPain after tomorrow (he is definitely battling uphill in such an assumption admittedly - it is not a likely outcome in all honesty)

2. The delegates won by Huckabee and Paul become important because it is possible their combined total is enough (if allocated to Romney) to sway lead from McPain to Romney if done in the near future (also, not likely however) although it depends on Romney's relative total of course too.

3. Even *IF* Romney trails in delegate count after Tuesday, it still is not a 'done deal' for McPain. Many of the remaining states to vote, although smaller, are more conservative overall than most of the ones (especially the larger ones) that will vote on Tuesday. Romney will stand to make up ground in those states later. This would be especially true if Huckabee drops out and Romney were to both gain his allotted delegates and siphon off more conservative votes from those that would have voted for Huckabee.


Just IMHO, flush or read as you see fit.

I must have read it wrong so I am taking it back and still saying my prayers!! Thanks Phred!!


EMERGENCY RED ALERT!!!!.............................................
ALL ACTIVIST...PLEASE HELP GET THE WORD OUT ABOUT MC CAIN!!! BEFORE SUPER TUESDAY!!!!
GO TO LINK BELOW!! for instuctions and contact infomation!
http://www.alipac.us/ftopic-101491-days ... asc-0.html
HELP DISTRIBUTE NEW PRESS RELEASE NOW...LINK BELOW!!
http://www.alipac.us/ftopict-101914.html

Oh Phred-that would make my day!


Nicole

WOW. I'll pass that along to my contacts in California.

Why is MO leaning McCain? They should be leaning Romney.

This is how its been breaking down in my studies also


Keep in mind that the polls are really tightening up in some
states where the polls didn't give Romney a chance
a week ago

Romneys delegate count is 92 as per cnn

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primar ... orecard/#R

Hes only 5 off of McCain right now

this is no way a done deal

Originally Posted by Bowman

Why is MO leaning McCain? They should be leaning Romney.

Ah, thanks Bowman. I was borrowing from Michelle Malkin's current list - she has McPain favored there. A leaning toward Romney would be a VERY GOOD thing considering the volatility of CA and GA and their delegate break-out.

Also, in a similar vein, another state that has a stronger leaning-toward-Romney trend (and is large and badly needed) is TN.
It too, has 50+ delegates but is not a "Winner-Take-All" situation.
The races in CA and GA are the really important ones to watch.

usanevada: Thanks for the delegate count reality check. The difference only helps add to Romney's totals so far...

FOX news just reported......

in Cal. Mc Cain 38 /Romney 38 thats close and better than behind, looks like Romney has a great chance, I think Californians are fed up!!

Originally Posted by PhredE

Originally Posted by Bowman

Why is MO leaning McCain? They should be leaning Romney.

Ah, thanks Bowman. I was borrowing from Michelle Malkin's current list - she has McPain favored there. A leaning toward Romney would be a VERY GOOD thing considering the volatility of CA and GA and their delegate break-out.

If we could flip MO to Romney then Romney would win Super Tuesday without having to win all the CA and GA delegates, he would only need 60% of them which it appears he now has. So how can we bombard MO today?

SOSAD - Well, more is better of course. One of the really tricky things about tomorrow's vote is the CA has a rather complex rules (rules?, I don't need no stinkin' rules! - ok, just kidding!!! ) governing the final delegate allocation process. IF CA were a 'winner-take-all' state and Romney were to win, bingo - big score! However, since it isn't, then the delegates awarded at the end will probably end up being roughly proportional to the votes cast.