Thread: Latinos are the sleeping giants in Texas politics.

Untapped potential: Latino numbers formidable, but not all can vote
By Zahira Torres / El Paso Times and Matt Stiles / Texas Tribune
Posted: 07/26/2010 12:00:00 AM MDT

AUSTIN -- Latinos are the sleeping giants in Texas politics.

That phrase is repeated so much it has become cliché.

Nearly 37 percent of the state's population of about 24.8 million people is Latino but almost any political expert will tell you that the group does not fully exercise its strength in elections.

Pinpointing if and when Latinos will begin wielding their voting power is more challenging.

"It's the $64,000 question," said Bob Stein, a political science professor at Rice University. "If you're biblical, it's like the messiah."

Politicians often speak of the Latino population as a mystical group that must be captured before it awakens. The prize is a massive number of votes for the person who can figure out how to move the group to the polls.

Scores of candidates, political parties and interest groups spend millions of dollars each year trying to determine what would happen if the group decided to exercise its strength in the next election.

In the current gubernatorial election between Republican Gov. Rick Perry and Democrat Bill White, analysts and others wonder what might happen if more of the state's registered Latino voters turned out at the polls.

Latinos in Texas tend to vote for Democrats. Republicans get a smaller share of the Latino vote yet they continue to win statewide elections. The general consensus is that Democrats in Texas would have an edge over their Republican counterparts if more Latinos voted. But wondering about the possibilities has not proved fruitful for Democrats in past election cycles.

One reason Latinos are not flexing their muscle at the polls is some may be too young to vote. Steve Murdock, a sociology professor at Rice University who is a former state demographer and a past U.S. Census Bureau director, said nearly 36 percent of the state's 6.7 million Latinos were not voting age a decade ago.

Latinos will be the largest ethnic group in Texas in five years. The group will surpass the 50 percent needed to become the majority of the state's population in 2029 but they will not dominate the population that is old enough to vote until 2033, Murdock said.

About 30 percent of the state's expected 11.8 million Latinos will still not be old enough to vote by 2015, Murdock said.

But age is not the only issue. Registered Latino voters lagged behind other ethnic groups in voter turnout during the 2008 presidential election.

A little more than 40 percent of nearly 2.9 million registered Latino voters in 2008 actually cast ballots. In contrast, about 60 percent
of about 10 million registered non-Latino voters turned out at the polls.

Experts say various circumstances contribute to the lower turnout. Latinos, for example, may meet the age qualifications but still be too young to fully engage in politics. A 30-year-old registered voter is more likely to cast a ballot than a 20-year-old. Other factors include higher rates of poverty among Latinos and lower levels of educational attainment.

Activists have cited low Latino voter turnout as one reason why immigration reform is not at the top of the to-do list for lawmakers. Latino voter participation is often considered a culprit when Democratic candidates in Texas cannot topple their Republican counterparts.

Leaders from counties with large Latino populations and low voter turnout also say that if the group turned out in higher numbers, the communities would get more money from the state and neighborhoods would see more investment from city government.

James Aldrete, a Democratic consultant, said it is unfair to place the blame on Latinos.

Aldrete said Latino voters face obstacles to voting that include working long hours or multiple jobs to provide for their families. He said it is up to the candidates and communities to drive those voters who feel disenfranchised to the polls.

"The real annoying thing is when they call it a sleeping giant or when they make any insinuation that it's lazy Mexicans," Aldrete said. "What they need to understand is if you want that vote you have
to make it front and center to providing for their families because that's what people are doing."

Since Texas does not require residents to declare their ethnicity when they register to vote, the best way to measure the tally of Latino voters is by surname. An El Paso Times and Texas Tribune study of the 2008 voting rolls shows that about 17 percent, or nearly 1.3 million, of the state's 7.6 million voters had Latino surnames.

Nearly 1.6 million of the state's about 2.9 million registered Latino voters did not cast ballots in 2008, according to the analysis that is based on the statewide voter file maintained by the Texas Secretary of State.

The list does not contain some overseas voters or voters who have been removed for various reasons. No similar list of voters was available for the 2006 gubernatorial election, according to the agency.

Political analysts warn that 2008 was an anomaly. They say average turnout for Latinos in the state ranges from 11 percent to 15 percent. Still, though Latinos are not voting in numbers equal to their population, the group remains too large to ignore.

Perry and White each say they have their eye on Latino voters.

Perry said he plans go after 50 percent of the Latino vote this election. The governor has picked up about a third of the Latino vote in past elections, according to his campaign. White will be looking to increase Latino turnout and trying to maintain the larger voting margins typically afforded to Democratic candidates.

"If Bill White loses the Hispanic vote to Rick Perry, then it's all over," Stein said. "He needs to get 65 to 70 percent of a good turnout of a Hispanic vote. If he doesn't hold his margins, it won't matter what the turnout is."

Perry said outreach would focus mostly on translating his message into Spanish through social media like Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. He said that could mean a few commercials that feature him speaking Spanish, a language he still struggles with.

Perry said his record speaks to Latinos, who like all other Texans care about the state's economic stability, education and feeling safe in their communities.

"The Democrats were in control of the state for 150 years," Perry said. "It was a Republican who put the first African-American on the Supreme Court. It was a Republican who named the first Latina secretary of state. It was a Republican who put the first Latina on the Supreme Court. What's not to like about these Republicans, or this Rick Perry Republican?"

White, who has already run his own commercials in Spanish, said he is focused on working with Latinos who may feel ignored by the state's leadership. He plans to touch on many of the same issues as Perry but will try to persuade voters that the governor has been ineffective.

"Latino voters, like all voters in our state, should have their support earned by performance and a lifetime commitment to progress, not simply by a slick television ad," White said. "You don't start nine-and-a-half years into office deciding you are going to appeal to a group."

With that message White hopes to increase Latino turnout in Democratic counties like El Paso and Hidalgo.

Only about 46 percent of the nearly 262,000 El Paso Latinos who were registered to vote in 2008, made it to the polls. About 40 percent of the more than 242,500 registered Latino voters in Hidalgo County cast ballots.

Democrats believe that Latino candidates like Linda Chavez-Thompson, who is running for lieutenant governor, and Hector Uribe, who is seeking a position as the state's land commissioner, will help draw Latino voters to the polls.

Republicans, on the other hand, are still battling an image of a party that is hostile to minorities -- a point revisited this year in public comments made by Railroad Commissioner Victor Carrillo after he lost to GOP political newcomer David Porter in the primary election. Carrillo made headlines when he told supporters that he lost the race because of a party bias against Latinos.

Former Republican candidate for governor Clayton Williams, who lost to Ann Richards in 1990, said Carrillo's defeat in the primary could be a blow for the party.

"If we cannot have more Hispanics become a part of our conservative effort then we don't have a future," Williams said. "That's a setback and we've got to work on that."

Latinos in Texas often choose the Democratic Party at the ballot box but that is not always the case at the national level.

Mark Lopez, associate director for the Pew Hispanic Center, said until 2008 a majority of Latinos nationally did not believe either party had more concern for them.

That year, a majority identified with the Democratic Party and only 6 percent chose the Republican Party.

"For the most part, the majority of Hispanics prior to 2008 were saying there was no difference between the parties," Lopez said.

Democrats have normally enjoyed an edge with Latino voters in Texas, but experts say they have done little to engage and excite that base. Republicans often tout that they share conservative and religious values with many Latinos, but the party's platform is sometimes at odds with the minority group.

For instance, Republicans generally push against immigration reform efforts that would provide a legal path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

"It's not that Hispanics aren't probably pro-life. It's not that they aren't pro-choice," Stein said. "But those are not things that will motivate them to vote Republican when they are unemployed, don't have health insurance and their schools are terrible."

Pia Orrenius, a research officer and senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said education would be the key for Latino progress during the next decade.

"In Texas, it just so happens that we have some of the most segregated high schools in the nation, so over half of Latino students tend to go to high schools that are 90 percent Latino or minority," Orrenius said, explaining that more needs to be done to level the playing field.

But analysts say that until Latinos show politicians that they cannot be appeased at a superficial level, candidates will continue to do just enough to get the vote each election year.

Lydia Camarillo, vice president of the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project, said that day is coming. In the meantime, she said Latinos must be reminded what is at stake in each election.

"Go to our neighborhoods. We are not seeing any progress," she said.

Many candidates still have a hard time pushing issues that drive the group to the polls. Eight years ago, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tony Sanchez relied too heavily on the idea that he could increase Latino turnout and that the group would vote for him because of his surname, political analysts said. Sanchez lost to Perry by more than 800,000 votes.

Those analysts said that current candidates who travel to the border to discuss security or complain that Latinos are not represented in history books are also not doing enough to engage the population in a meaningful way.

Camarillo said underestimating Latino voting power is a mistake. She said candidates have missed the mark when tackling important concerns for Latinos.

"The questions should be what are we going to do to make sure that the Latino community has better resources, better jobs and better opportunities?" Camarillo said.

But, Camarillo said, Latinos also continue to pay attention to how candidates respond to immigration issues.

"Even though it is a federal issue, the immigration issue has become increasingly a litmus test for how we will be treated," she said.

Both White and Perry are playing it safe on immigration and border security.

White, who is trying to appeal to moderate Republican voters and keep his base Democratic voters, has leaned more conservative on those issues. He treads lightly when discussing national immigration reform efforts and has joined Perry in criticizing the federal government's response to border security needs.

Perry, on the other hand, is also trying to play both sides.

Aldrete said the governor doles out money to sheriffs and provides grants along the border, while presiding over a Republican Party convention that talked about eliminating federally sponsored pre-kindergarten and passing an Arizona-like bill in Texas.

Perry has said publicly that he disagrees with portions of the Arizona law, which would not be right for Texas. Meanwhile, some of his fellow Republicans in the Legislature have promised to pass similar bills in the state.

White says he would veto legislation that resembles the controversial law. Perry would not commit to a veto without a review of such legislation.

Analysts said both parties have to step up efforts to reach Latino voters by talking about issues like closing the wage gap with Anglos, reducing the dropout rate for Hispanic children and raising the college graduation statistics for the minority group.

"For the majority of Hispanics, the Republican Party is just not a choice," Aldrete said. "The choice is, 'is it worth my time to get involved?'"

http://www.elpasotimes.com/ci_15601535

Nearly 37 percent of the state's population of about 24.8 million people is Latino but almost any political expert will tell you that the group does not fully exercise its strength in elections.

Does this number include illegal invaders I wonder?

Im Tired of articles trying to intimidate Politicians INTO pandering to Latinos already. Latinos this and Latinos that. Pander to them Pander to them Pander to them....la la la

Here we go again with the Latino vote scare... The same Latino voters who don't show up at the polls.

There's almost 2 million illegals in Texas and that's not counting the anchor babies.

Dixie

The highest density of Latinos in Vegas is on the east side

Yet go to any poll on election day on the east side and the polls are almost dead empty.

My letter to them:



You wrote: “Nearly 37 percent of the state's population of nearly 25 million is Latinoâ€

My wife is considered "Latino" She she as hell doesn't vote Democrat for any reason. I have a feeling there are a lot of so called "Latinos" that feel the same. It's just our liberal media sources just refuse to address this.

To me it is a slap in the face to law abiding Hispanics that hey don't support the rule of law and instead would prefer to support those who have complete disregard for this country's laws.

"Perry said outreach would focus mostly on translating his message into Spanish through social media like Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. He said that could mean a few commercials that feature him speaking Spanish, a language he still struggles with".

My question is why does he feel it necessary to reach Hispanic citizens in Spanish? You have to know English in order to become a citizen and only citizens can vote (or at least we are told anyway).

What does either party have to do to gain the Hispanic vote? Do they have to sacrifice their principals and their loyalty to THIS country in order to do so? It seems so.

Originally Posted by Oldglory

My question is why does he feel it necessary to reach Hispanic citizens in Spanish? You have to know English in order to become a citizen and only citizens can vote (or at least we are told anyway).

this is an example of the media blurring the line between legal citizen and illegal invader.

this is like former pres clinton ism. say it enough and soon people will think that is the truth.

Originally Posted by Oldglory

You have to know English in order to become a citizen and only citizens can vote (or at least we are told anyway).

When I vote, they give me a sticker that says I voted in English and Spanish. I tear off the spanish half.