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April 09, 2007

Legal immigration will create long-term problems

By BRIAN RIEHLE
COMMUNITY VOICES

In 1965 when the population of the United States was less than 200 million, the population of Florida was about 6 million and the combined population in Volusia and Flagler counties was about 150,000. The 1970 census counted 6.8 million people in Florida with 169,487 in Volusia County and 4,454 in Flagler County, or 173,941 for the two counties. During the decade between 1960 and 1970 the population of Florida had increased by 37 percent, and at that time Florida ranked ninth among the states in population.

Today, with the population of the United States over 300 million and growing, the total population of Florida is about 18 million with approximately 566,000 living in Volusia and Flagler counties, with a distribution of 490,000 in Volusia and 76,000 in Flagler. So in about 40 years the population of the United States has increased by 50 percent and during this same time period the population of Florida has tripled. Florida now ranks fourth among the states in population, behind California, Texas and New York.

And not incidentally, Florida ranked second only to California in the number of new immigrants allowed to enter the state in 2005.

Before the 1965 immigration reform bill was passed by Congress and signed by President Lyndon Johnson, the number of legal immigrants admitted to the United States was about 180,000 per year. Since that time the annual number of legal immigrants entering the country steadily has increased to more than one million a year. For the most part, this migration is responsible for the population explosion we see taking place around us.

The noise created by the current arguments about "illegal immigrants," amnesty, border fences and Homeland Security has diverted public attention from the myriad problems that will result from the larger issue of continued long-term mass legal immigration.

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that there will be 420 million people in the country by 2050, but it's difficult to determine the birth rates for the migrant population, and the effects of "chain migration," so it's hard to compare their predictions with others that are more alarmist and claim the number to be above a half billion by the same time.

Regardless of the differences between these predictions there is a tsunami of immigrants headed toward us in the foreseeable future unless Congress acts to reduce the current quota. Since there has been so little public discussion about this issue, it's impossible to gauge how the general public feels.

The news media and politicians often speak against urban sprawl, the destruction of our natural resources and the unsustainability of growth, yet they rarely address the root cause of the problem, which is, simply put, too many people.

It's a complicated and extremely controversial issue that must be faced. On the one hand we hear Bill Gates of Microsoft lobbying for what amounts to permanent resident status for all foreigners who attain advanced degrees in the United States in computer science and related fields because, according to him, America needs their expertise. And on the other hand, there are those who argue that the Third World needs its educated sons and daughters to return home and help develop their own countries. The interests of the agriculture industry seem obvious. Many others don't speak out because they fear being branded as anti-immigrant or racist. It's also noteworthy that in an area under as much pressure as Central Florida there literally has been no editorial commentary or public forum discussions about this important subject.

So what does this future population growth mean for Florida in terms of numbers? Let's use the last 40 years as a model.

The Census Bureau conservatively predicts an increase of 120 million in the United States by 2050, for a total of 420 million, roughly 40 percent more than the current population. If the trends of the last 40 years continue, this will result in an increase in the number of Floridians to an astounding 43 million over the same period.

This same 40-year model also shows the combined Volusia and Flagler county population increasing from the current 566,000 to slightly more than 1.3 million by 2050. If the current legal immigration levels remain the same there is probably no stopping this growth.

It's time to look closely at the "Comprehensive Immigration Bill" that's working its way through Congress and see how it addresses total immigration, not just undocumented farm workers from Latin America.

Riehle, a retired Federal Aviation Administration engineering manager, lives in Palm Coast.



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