Thread: Only in New Jersey - Part 2

http://www.courierpostonline.com/apps/p ... 60361/1006

Poll: Senate candidates in virtual tie
Friday, October 6, 2006

By RAJU CHEBIUM and JIM WALSH
Courier-Post Staff

U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez and his Republican challenger, Thomas Kean Jr., are running about even a month before the election, according to a USA Today/Gallup Poll released Thursday.

"It's going to be tough; it's going to be tight," Rider University political analyst David Rebovich said of the Senate race.

Forty-six percent of likely voters favored the Democratic incumbent while 43 percent supported Kean, a state senator and the son of former Gov. Tom Kean Sr., according to the USA Today/Gallup Poll.

The difference falls within the poll's margin of error of 5 percentage points, which means they are essentially tied.

Nine percent said they are undecided.

The results are based on a telephone poll of 890 registered voters between Sept. 27 and Oct. 1.

Two other polls on Thursday showed Menendez up -- with a 7-point lead according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University survey; and a 10-point lead according to Reuters/Zogby.

Kean had a five-point lead in a poll released this week by Strategic Vision, an Atlanta public affairs firm. Thirteen percent were undecided in that poll.

Rebovich said the close nature of the contest is good news for Kean, but only to a point.

"He's still in the thick of it and is preparing for a final push," Rebovich said. "The question is, "What factors are going to influence the undecided voters?' "

He said Kean is likely to keep hammering at Menendez's "presumed ethical impairment" and local issues.

He also noted Menendez has used TV ads to tie Kean to President Bush and to question the Republican's ethics.

According to the USA Today/Gallup Poll, likely voters indicated a stronger preference for a candidate who opposes President Bush. Forty-three percent said they'd vote for a Bush opponent and 25 percent indicated they'd go with a Bush supporter.

Rebovich said Democratic efforts to "nationalize" the race could be helped if the ongoing sex scandal in Congress raises doubts about GOP leadership.

"At best it's a distraction, and you don't need to be distracted in a horse race," Rebovich said.

Menendez is considered the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the Senate. Democrats need to beat six Republican incumbents and hold on to contested seats like New Jersey's to take control of the Senate.

Menendez's campaign has sought to portray the incumbent as someone who'd stand up to the president. The Kean campaign has sought to paint Menendez as a corrupt Hudson County politician.

Strangely enough Kean seems to avoid the issues of border control and illegal aliens. Instead he insists on attacking Menendez on his ethical lapses.

Many surveys have shown that NJ residents don't see they have an immigration problem. Their taxes are out of sight, but they don't connect the dots??

A corrupt Hudson County Politician.......If you've ever been to Hudson County you'd know that to qualify to be in Politics you have to be corrupt!

My Mom worked in a Town Hall in Hudson County back in the 80's She said the corruption going on back then people would never believe.