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Thread: Opinion: The math adds up to Clinton versus Trump

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  1. #1
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    Opinion: The math adds up to Clinton versus Trump

    Opinion: The math adds up to Clinton versus Trump

    Published: Feb 21, 2016 12:39 p.m. ET

    Itís becoming clear that the race this autumn will be between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton

    By Steve Goldstein, D.C. bureau chief

    The delegates awarded so far in the presidential race are effectively trivial, but after Saturday nightís results itís growing clear that the race this autumn will be between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

    While the more contested race is among the Republicans, letís for a moment examine the Democratic field. It wasnít really a fair match to begin with due to the superdelegates who had already been pledged to the former secretary of state.

    Clinton has a 502-to-70 lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, with 2,383 needed to secure the nomination. Put another way, Sanders needs to win 57% of the remaining delegates to capture the nomination.

    Thatís the kind of split that seems pretty much unimaginable. After a triumphant Sanders result in New Hampshire, Clinton won by a 53%-to-47% margin in Nevada.

    Nevada doesnít stand up to, say, Ohio as a bellwether, but itís far more representative of the rest of the country ó and, in particular, of Democratic voters ó than New Hampshire. Itís also notable that Nevada was arguably ground zero of the housing crisis, a point Sanders made in his ads there. If an anti-Wall Street pitch didnít work in Nevada, where is it going to have traction?

    Republicans donít have the same superdelegate complexities; instead, theyíve had a nearly infinite number of actual candidates. With former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush suspending his campaign after South Carolina, the race is becoming more defined.

    Itís Trumpís to lose, even as thereís increasing evidence that he will struggle to get past 35% support in polls. His 61 delegates in the bag arenít much ó over 1,200 are needed for victory ó but with Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Ben Carson still in the race, the real-estate tycoon will continue to notch victories. One negative for Trump is that the mostly Southern states in whatís come to be called Super Duper Tuesday award delegates proportionally rather than on a winner-take-all basis.

    One could conceivably come up with a picture in mid-March after the Florida and Ohio primaries ó both winner-take-all affairs ó where Rubio, Kasich and Cruz all are within striking distance of one another in the delegate count. That could, importantly, keep all three in the race, where theyíd continue to split the anti-Trump voters.

    The last stages of the race for the nomination are overwhelmingly winner-take-all primaries ó which, in a divided field, again, works to Trumpís advantage.

    Trump isnít in as enviable a position as Clinton. He likely will need to win the Republican nomination outright, as it seems improbable that a brokered convention would be to his advantage. And heís faced relatively little fire from his adversaries, who, one would imagine, eventually will start to campaign more negatively against Trump.

    All that said, it doesnít look like Cruz, Rubio and Kasich are in any hurry to help one another by dropping out. In a divided field, Trump is in pole position.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the...ump-2016-02-21
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  2. #2
    Senior Member Captainron's Avatar
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    There are going to be lots of Bernie supporters who will lose faith in the Dems, with a Hillary nomination. They are not all radicals, many of them are just people who think certain institutions run roughshod over the ordinary person. And that is where Trump, also, is getting a lot of his strength. Trump could walk away with all of the cards, if he continues to broaden his appeal.
    Judy likes this.
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  3. #3
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    I agree! I think a lot of Bernie supporters would like Trump because he wants to fix our trade, work on reducing the interest cost of college loans as well as reduce the cost of college itself. Trump thinks and I thought it even before he said it that these college costs are out of control and it is because the loans are available and the kids get stuck with paying for over-priced college educations. It's a terrible situation and the colleges are to blame.
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