Thread: OPINION : RAOUL LOWERY CONTRERAS

A plus A doesn't equal C



By: RAOUL LOWERY CONTRERAS - Commentary
September 29, 2007 7:09 PM PDT

County's study assumes that illegal immigrants pay no local taxes

The San Diego County Board of Supervisors commissioned a faulty unscientific study. Why? So they can make specious political points, speciously.

San Diego State Professor John Weeks conducted the "study." He "estimates" 210,000 illegals in San Diego County. That 6.8 percent of the county's population must shock local talk show hosts. Weeks, 1, talk show hosts, 0.

He "estimates" that the county spends $527 per illegal, costing $35.21 per resident for fiscal year 2006-07.


Given a total of $100 million in illegal alien "costs," including $48.5 million by the sheriff to house illegal alien inmates, the board unanimously voted to accept the report.

All is well and good, except the study isn't worth the paper it is written on!

First, no one knows how many illegals are in the county. Second, no one knows how many are single men or women, or how many are couples and/or women with children (legal or illegal). These specific percentages affect expenditures. Third, and most important, there is no accounting in this study for the local taxes these people pay in San Diego County.

Scientifically what Professor Weeks presented and the county Board of Supervisors accepted is: A plus A equals C. It should be A minus B equals C.

Without knowing the tax revenue (B) collected from illegals, there is no rational basis to conclude they cost at all (A).

Let's find some revenues. Some 210,000 illegals mostly live in apartments and houses, not canyons and tent towns around Rancho Penasquitos. Assuming the average house or apartment they live in is occupied by two-plus people, we have them living in 100,000 residences or so.

Assuming that half of these illegals live in houses and that most of the houses are assessed for $200,000 or more (Laugh!), we can expect that 50,000 units produce in excess of $100 million in county property taxes. Calculate in apartment property taxes paid on 50,000 or so units at $1,500 per apartment in annual county property taxes, we add in another $75 million. Our 19 county cities also collect property taxes from these people.

Thus, illegals may pay a conservative $175 million in county property taxes through their rents, plus there are some who own their homes.

Then, assuming these illegals buy Cokes, fast food, clothes, gasoline, cars and other sales-taxable items, they pay more than 7 percent of their purchase price in sales tax, of which each city and the county receive a portion ---- totaling millions of dollars.

County sales tax revenues of more than $100 million aren't credited to normal sources (you and me) by public agencies. Can we connect the dots and conclude that this $100 million is paid by Mexicans, legal and illegal?

An honest exercise by Professor Weeks would determine that the county of San Diego collects more than $275 million in local taxes from illegals. By spending only $100 million directly on illegals, we actually make money: $175 million.

Significantly, we haven't even begun to count the billions of Social Security taxes paid by illegals that sit in suspense accounts ($40 billion is a modest estimate) overseen by the Social Security Administration. Their Social Security dollars eventually wind up in our Social Security checks, mine included. Thank you very much!

Raoul Lowery Contreras lives in Del Mar Heights.

http://nctimes.com/articles/2007/09/30/ ... ogcomments

except for the fact that 5 families live in one house. So that is another study that is incorrect. Come on guy, give it up.