Ron Paul sole GOP hopeful who opposes Bush on foreign policy
Zachary Coile, Chronicle Washington Bureau



President Bush might be down in the polls, but when the Republican presidential candidates were asked about his record on foreign policy in a recent debate in New Hampshire, no one except Rep. Ron Paul of Texas was running away from it.

"I agree with the (Bush) doctrine," Arizona Sen. John McCain responded.

"The president got the big decision of his presidency right," said former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, praising Bush's offensive against terrorism.

As the GOP candidates scramble for support in a free-for-all election, they have come to a shared view that criticizing Bush's record too sharply would alienate the voters they need to win the nomination. But sticking too closely to Bush also carries risks for the eventual GOP nominee as Democrats seek to tie Republicans to the president's missteps, especially in Iraq.

Even former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who wrote a piece in Foreign Affairs magazine last month blasting the administration's "arrogant bunker mentality," is scaling back his critique after he was savaged by his rivals for rebuking the president. Huckabee, at the debate Saturday, said his line about arrogance was aimed at former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld for failing to heed calls by his generals for more troops in Iraq.

Paul, who has urged an immediate withdrawal of troops from Iraq, is the only candidate who is directly challenging Bush's policies.

"I certainly agreed with (Bush's) foreign policy that he ran on and that we as Republicans won in the year 2000 - you know, the humble foreign policy, no nation-building, don't be the policeman of the world," Paul said.

"Of course, the excuse is that 9/11 changed everything, but the Bush doctrine of pre-emptive war is not a minor change. This is huge. This is the first time we as a nation accept as our policy that we start the wars."


Jack Pitney, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, said, "Even though Bush is unpopular among the general electorate, a lot of Republicans remain loyal to him, which is why Republicans generally avoid direct criticism." Pitney said that of all the GOP candidates, McCain seems to be doing the best at maneuvering around the pitfalls of Bush's foreign policy record.

"McCain seems to have found an effective formula by endorsing the administration's goals while faulting its execution - saying they tried to do the right thing the wrong way," Pitney said. "McCain has the credibility to make the argument because of his expertise in military matters."

More than any other candidate, McCain's success in the race has been tied to the trajectory of the war.

His fortunes fell when violence in Iraq flared last year and polls showed rising discontent among U.S. voters. But, in a move some analysts saw as political suicide, McCain embarked on a "No Surrender" tour this fall, opposing calls for withdrawing troops and backing Bush's "surge" of 30,000 soldiers into Iraq. He told voters, "I'd rather lose an election than lose a war."

"John McCain bet his entire candidacy on the success of the surge ... and it paid off," said Dan Schnur, a Republican strategist who was McCain's communications director during his 2000 presidential bid.

Rather than turning off voters in New Hampshire, where anti-war sentiment is running high, McCain's stand boosted his support among independents and Republicans, Schnur said.

"His support for the surge was the most visible evidence of the 'straight talk' that a lot of his old supporters had seen in some time," Schnur said. "McCain is at his best when he can begin a sentence with, 'I know you may disagree with me, but ...' "

The exit polls in New Hampshire showed an interesting split: McCain won among voters who called the war the top issue and even among the 34 percent of GOP voters who oppose the Iraq war. But of the 64 percent of Republican voters who support the war, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who has been less critical of Bush's Iraq policy, had a narrow edge.

If McCain survives to become the nominee, he could be haunted by a statement he made in New Hampshire last week. Pressed by an anti-war activist about how long U.S. troops would stay as in Iraq, McCain said 100 years wouldn't bother him.

"We've been in Japan for 60 years. We've been in South Korea 50 years or so," he said. "That would be fine with me."

The Democratic National Committee and anti-war bloggers pounced on McCain's comment, and if he's the nominee, the line will be repeated endlessly by the Democratic nominee this fall.

Bruce Buchanan, a presidential historian at the University of Texas at Austin, said whichever Republican wins will likely shift his approach on Iraq before the general election. Exit polls in Iowa and New Hampshire have shown voters of all types are weary of the war and eager for a change in policy.

"There are fissures among voters on this question that candidates will start to notice," Buchanan predicted. "Positions will change."

But Schnur said an aggressive approach in the war on terrorism is now a fundamental part of the GOP message, and he doesn't believe the nominee will walk away from that view.

"In the general election, the Republican nominee is going to agree very strongly with President Bush on the broad questions of the war on terror and eliminating Saddam Hussein," he said. "But you'll see differences in the logistics and the application of that strategy."

Schnur predicted the debate between Democrats and Republicans on Iraq won't necessarily be clear cut. The leading Democrats - New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards - have proposed a phased withdrawal of troops. The top Republicans have opposed setting timelines for withdrawal.

With New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson's withdrawal from the race Thursday after a dismal showing in New Hampshire, Republican Paul is the only one in either party calling for an immediate troop withdrawal.

"While Republicans will tend to keep a troop presence in Iraq longer, it very quickly becomes a (debate) of shades of gray," Schnur said.


E-mail Zachary Coile at zcoile@sfchronicle.com.
http://www.sfgate.com




This ALIPAC member has posted this entity be it editorial opinion, news article, column, or web creation as information for the General Population (public) only. It is not intended as an endorsement for this candidate by this poster. Its use here has not been anticipated to be used as, or used to discredit any candidate mentioned herewith.