Rubio 46%; Murphy 43% in new poll – Trump’s Tampa swing and immigration shift – Water management ‘bullying’ -- Miami mayoral candidate plugs Zika snake-oil

08/25/16 07:01 AM EDT

By Marc Caputo (; @MarcACaputo) with Kristen East (; @kristenicoleast) and the staff of POLITICO Florida

Good Thursday morning. Reminder: the unnamed storm known as “99L” churns 200 miles northwest of Puerto Rico. It COULD become a hurricane and COULD make landfall Sunday in South Florida. If the storm slows, it COULD strike on Election Day. At least the Senate primaries don’t look like close races. But the general election is another matter…

CLOSE -- “Poll: Rubio, Murphy easily win primaries, but face close contest in November,” by POLITICO Florida’s Marc Caputo: Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker said Rubio’s 46 – 43 percent lead over Murphy can be considered a tie because of the poll’s 4-point error margin. He said Murphy has room to grow because he’s relatively unknown, yet basically tied. Both men are more liked than disliked, but only 22 percent are unfamiliar with Rubio while 59 percent say they don’t know enough about Murphy. However, the bilingual Rubio has a base in the Democrats’ stronghold of Miami-Dade County and can pull more Hispanic votes than most Republicans, Coker said.

Murphy still leads among Hispanics in the Mason-Dixon poll, but by 49 – 41 percent. Murphy also dominates the black vote, beating Rubio 79 -12 percent. Rubio has a sizable lead among non-Hispanic white voters, 53 -36 percent. Men support Rubio 50 – 38 percent; women favor Murphy 47 -43 percent.

Republicans backed Rubio over Murphy 80 – 9 percent while Murphy had relatively weaker support in his base, with Democrats supporting him 76 – 15 percent over Rubio. Rubio is leading Murphy among independents, 47 – 40 percent.